NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	90		Excitement	6.3 [517]		MVP	Trevor Ariza (HOU): +19.6%
Houston Rockets	95		Comeback	1.4 [866]		LVP	Russell Westbrook (OKC): -18.8%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Harden	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.06	0.05	-0.02	11	56%	0.13	0	0.00	5	100%	0.03
Serge Ibaka	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.08	0.04	0.00	5	100%	0.14	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Green	0.07	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.00	0.00	16	62%	0.11	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Nick Collison	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	1	100%	0.07	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Shaun Livingston	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Nenad Krstic	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.00	7	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Thabo Sefolosha	-0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	5	40%	-0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Durant	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08	-0.09	0.01	0.00	18	36%	-0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Russell Westbrook	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.15,-0.09,-0.1,-0.16,-0.18,-0.19,-0.19	-0.08	-0.08	0.03	14	39%	-0.14	2	-0.05	10	70%	-0.03

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Trevor Ariza	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.23,0.22,0.21,0.21,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.16	0.01	-0.02	20	62%	0.22	1	-0.03	10	40%	-0.16
David Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.05,-0.07,-0.02,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	-0.01	0.12	-0.00	11	42%	0.11	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Luis Scola	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.06	0.01	15	47%	0.06	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.01
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.09	-0.00	0.02	7	93%	0.12	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Charles Hayes	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.03	-0.04	-0.00	9	65%	0.02	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Chase Budinger	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tracy McGrady	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	5	20%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	5	27%	-0.04	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Aaron Brooks	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.13,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.11,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.18	-0.18	-0.21	-0.02	-0.04	15	16%	-0.14	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.0	1.8	29.0	15.5	25.2	1.8	33.4	129.7
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +22.3%

OKC -18.6%

HOU +32.0%

HOU +11.4%

HOU +2.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	HOU	NBA	OKC	HOU	NBA
this game	15.3	17.8	15.3	103.4	109.2	106.0
season	15.0	15.0		106.2	106.0
opponent	15.1	15.5		106.1	103.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	16.0	17.8	12.3	15.6	15.3
HOU	15.3	17.4	19.0	19.6	17.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nick Collison	32	31	0.29	-0.79	1.09	-0.18	16	-21	37	14.7	15.7	-0.95	18.3	17.5	0.74
Shaun Livingston	13	13	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.01	-1	-4	3	17.3	15.0	2.33	16.4	18.0	-1.64
Serge Ibaka	43	41	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.28	8	-13	21	15.4	15.3	0.10	18.0	17.6	0.32
James Harden	56	56	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.37	8	-13	21	15.9	14.3	1.55	18.0	17.3	0.71
Thabo Sefolosha	44	44	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	0.03	-14	9	-23	15.2	15.4	-0.24	17.0	18.5	-1.49
Nenad Krstic	38	40	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	0.00	-15	10	-25	14.5	16.0	-1.51	17.3	18.1	-0.80
Russell Westbrook	74	74	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.36	-4	-1	-3	15.0	17.3	-2.33	18.0	16.4	1.64
Kevin Durant	65	66	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	-0.28	-10	5	-15	15.3	15.4	-0.06	18.0	17.2	0.78
Jeff Green	70	70	-0.72	0.22	-0.94	-0.34	-13	8	-21	15.7	13.9	1.79	17.8	17.7	0.09

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Charles Hayes	55	54	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.40	10	-5	15	18.1	17.2	0.99	15.5	15.0	0.57
Shane Battier	67	68	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.36	7	-2	9	18.1	16.5	1.60	15.6	14.4	1.15
Aaron Brooks	65	63	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.27	8	-3	11	17.8	17.7	0.07	14.5	17.4	-2.89
Trevor Ariza	84	85	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.33	5	0	5	18.0	12.7	5.30	15.3	15.0	0.33
Luis Scola	65	67	0.16	0.34	-0.19	0.01	5	0	5	17.2	19.6	-2.48	15.1	16.2	-1.14
David Andersen	32	32	0.07	0.43	-0.35	0.31	-8	13	-21	18.7	17.3	1.43	15.5	15.2	0.33
Chase Budinger	9	8	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.00	2	3	-1	15.9	18.0	-2.11	14.6	15.4	-0.77
Tracy McGrady	14	14	0.00	0.50	-0.49	-0.03	1	4	-3	16.5	18.0	-1.53	15.7	15.2	0.47
Kyle Lowry	44	44	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.10	-5	10	-15	17.5	18.1	-0.66	16.0	14.6	1.46

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.44,0.53,0.61,0.66,0.72,0.78,0.78,0.76,0.77,0.87,0.91,0.93,0.91,0.89,0.94,0.93,0.87,0.9,0.85,0.87,0.75,0.71,0.68,0.74,0.81,0.66,0.69,0.89,0.97,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 102, PHI 107	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.5,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.66,0.69,0.72,0.75,0.84,0.88,0.88,0.87,0.85,0.81,0.85,0.86,0.86,0.89,0.86,0.85,0.87,0.75,0.7,0.57,0.58,0.75,0.76,0.67,0.81,0.78,0.94,0.85,1	93.6%
LAC 89, MEM 98	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.6,0.57,0.6,0.54,0.63,0.62,0.59,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.6,0.61,0.66,0.7,0.76,0.73,0.74,0.77,0.78,0.83,0.9,0.84,0.85,0.84,0.82,0.78,0.79,0.85,0.87,0.91,0.8,0.73,0.69,0.71,0.53,0.69,0.84,0.97,1,1	93.4%
NOH 90, TOR 96	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.64,0.6,0.55,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.58,0.61,0.72,0.79,0.75,0.88,0.91,0.86,0.88,0.83,0.88,0.94,0.9,0.89,0.95,0.95,0.94,0.87,0.84,0.85,0.76,0.73,0.86,0.76,0.72,0.9,0.89,0.97,1,1	93.3%