NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	126		Excitement	7.3 [333]		MVP	Vince Carter (ORL): +43.0%
Golden State Warriors	118		Comeback	4.5 [468]		LVP	Jason Williams (ORL): -7.7%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vince Carter	0.43	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.2,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.43	0.17	0.25	-0.01	13	71%	0.45	1	-0.02	12	100%	0.10
Mickael Pietrus	0.25	0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.24,0.25	0.14	0.10	-0.01	12	71%	0.29	1	-0.04	7	86%	0.03
Matt Barnes	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.02	0.00	5	85%	0.19	2	-0.11	3	67%	-0.02
Rashard Lewis	0.06	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.08	0.02	0.05	12	67%	0.10	2	-0.04	6	83%	0.00
Brandon Bass	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	67%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Anthony Johnson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.00	4	62%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.03	-0.03	11	59%	0.09	4	-0.09	7	71%	-0.03
JJ Redick	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	3	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Marcin Gortat	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	3	67%	0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jason Williams	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.02	-0.04	0.01	9	60%	0.03	4	-0.11	2	100%	0.01

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
CJ Watson	0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.13	0.13	0.09	0.04	-0.00	10	74%	0.15	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.03
Monta Ellis	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.05,0.01,0.08,0.05,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.08,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.02	0.08	0.01	23	58%	0.27	7	-0.18	11	82%	0.01
Vladimir Radmanovic	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.04	0.03	-0.04	9	44%	0.09	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Chris Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Randolph	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.13,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.08	-0.04	0.03	23	51%	0.01	0	0.00	9	89%	0.03
Mikki Moore	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Corey Maggette	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	5	50%	-0.03	2	-0.03	12	75%	-0.00
Stephen Curry	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.04	0.02	12	52%	0.08	3	-0.15	1	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.0	2.4	37.1	15.7	29.1	2.8	32.4	149.4
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +39.5%

ORL +18.1%

GSW -4.4%

GSW -1.1%

GSW -2.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	GSW	NBA	ORL	GSW	NBA
this game	14.8	13.6	15.3	123.5	116.8	106.0
season	15.4	13.4		110.1	106.5
opponent	14.8	15.9		110.0	101.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	12.9	15.9	14.8	15.7	14.8
GSW	13.3	11.2	15.9	14.3	13.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Vince Carter	73	72	0.79	-0.29	1.07	0.23	19	-11	30	14.5	15.4	-0.85	14.1	12.3	1.80
Dwight Howard	65	66	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.33	11	-3	14	14.9	14.6	0.32	13.9	13.1	0.78
Rashard Lewis	90	88	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.28	5	3	2	14.6	16.3	-1.77	13.5	14.0	-0.47
Anthony Johnson	25	25	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.24	5	3	2	14.9	14.7	0.19	13.2	13.7	-0.47
Mickael Pietrus	78	78	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.31	1	7	-6	14.3	16.4	-2.09	13.5	13.8	-0.30
Brandon Bass	19	18	0.18	0.32	-0.14	-0.02	7	1	6	14.9	14.7	0.21	13.8	13.6	0.22
Jason Williams	77	76	0.11	0.39	-0.27	0.03	3	5	-2	14.7	14.9	-0.19	13.7	13.2	0.47
JJ Redick	19	19	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.04	-2	10	-12	16.1	14.5	1.57	13.8	13.5	0.24
Matt Barnes	36	36	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	-0.05	-3	11	-14	16.2	14.0	2.19	12.6	14.1	-1.48
Marcin Gortat	28	27	-0.22	0.72	-0.94	-0.04	-6	14	-20	14.4	14.9	-0.58	13.0	13.8	-0.86

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Hunter	12	11	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.11	6	-14	20	13.5	13.6	-0.11	14.2	14.8	-0.66
CJ Watson	64	64	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.06	-1	-7	6	14.1	12.7	1.45	14.2	15.8	-1.62
Mikki Moore	18	18	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	0.19	-15	7	-22	13.7	13.6	0.09	12.7	15.2	-2.49
Corey Maggette	56	56	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.34	1	-9	10	12.6	14.9	-2.30	15.4	14.0	1.33
Anthony Randolph	70	72	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.32	0	-8	8	13.7	13.4	0.35	15.6	12.8	2.75
Stephen Curry	98	98	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.25	-8	0	-8	13.8	8.3	5.42	14.8	14.0	0.81
Monta Ellis	101	102	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.27	-8	0	-8	13.6	0.0	13.59	14.8	0.0	14.77
Vladimir Radmanovic	86	89	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.17	-15	7	-22	13.6	13.6	-0.01	14.6	15.8	-1.14

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.37,0.4,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.29,0.25,0.22,0.24,0.32,0.32,0.3,0.26,0.26,0.21,0.2,0.22,0.17,0.15,0.23,0.25,0.25,0.28,0.31,0.23,0.27,0.24,0.36,0.32,0.32,0.38,0.48,0.44,0.64,0.62,0.66,0.7,0.57,0.63,0.69,0.76,0.73,0.55,0.11,0.06,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 94, ATL 90	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.37,0.32,0.34,0.39,0.35,0.3,0.27,0.2,0.23,0.2,0.22,0.29,0.34,0.31,0.27,0.3,0.3,0.26,0.2,0.27,0.27,0.39,0.55,0.45,0.48,0.59,0.56,0.64,0.58,0.62,0.53,0.57,0.68,0.58,0.65,0.73,0.54,0.36,0.14,0.05,0	91.2%
POR 103, PHX 93	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.46,0.41,0.37,0.38,0.41,0.32,0.28,0.32,0.27,0.25,0.21,0.14,0.21,0.19,0.17,0.18,0.21,0.2,0.16,0.23,0.25,0.2,0.21,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.27,0.23,0.32,0.31,0.41,0.55,0.56,0.62,0.74,0.7,0.8,0.72,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.75,0.37,0.09,0,0	91.2%
CLE 123, PHI 116	0.5,0.49,0.43,0.41,0.38,0.38,0.32,0.29,0.25,0.24,0.22,0.26,0.24,0.23,0.21,0.24,0.2,0.12,0.17,0.21,0.25,0.22,0.18,0.19,0.22,0.27,0.26,0.28,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.52,0.38,0.52,0.52,0.6,0.7,0.78,0.82,0.62,0.68,0.74,0.84,0.87,0.75,0.46,0.09,0.01,0	91.0%