NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	106		Excitement	7.4 [308]		MVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): +27.9%
San Antonio Spurs	99		Comeback	3.4 [234]		LVP	Matt Bonner (SAS): -13.8%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carmelo Anthony	0.21	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,0,0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.22,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.21	0.07	0.12	-0.01	27	55%	0.26	2	-0.05	8	75%	0.00
Ty Lawson	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.03	0.11	-0.00	6	58%	0.18	1	-0.04	7	71%	-0.00
Kenyon Martin	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.04,0.04	-0.01	0.04	-0.01	7	56%	0.07	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Nene	0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.02	0.01	10	60%	0.06	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	1	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Arron Afflalo	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	150%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	-0.01	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0,-0.01	0.05	-0.04	0.02	10	62%	0.06	2	-0.07	9	89%	0.03
J.R. Smith	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.08	-0.04	-0.01	17	44%	0.00	4	-0.12	5	80%	-0.02

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.22,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28	0.28	0.18	0.10	0.00	12	84%	0.32	2	-0.04	7	86%	0.03
Tony Parker	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.01,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.04	0.00	14	67%	0.30	6	-0.23	12	92%	0.07
Michael Finley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.03	0.00	2	100%	0.07	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Richard Jefferson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	9	50%	0.04	2	-0.05	2	0%	-0.05
Keith Bogans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
George Hill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.04	-0.00	7	50%	0.00	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Roger Mason Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.05,0.12,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.03	-0.07	-0.01	9	56%	0.06	2	-0.09	7	86%	0.02
DeJuan Blair	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	5	40%	0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	3	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Bonner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	6	25%	-0.04	2	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.9	2.0	29.0	15.5	27.5	2.4	36.5	141.9
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +10.8%

SAS -8.1%

DEN +27.4%

DEN +22.0%

SAS -2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	SAS	NBA	DEN	SAS	NBA
this game	13.4	16.2	15.3	107.1	103.1	106.0
season	14.4	15.9		110.3	108.2
opponent	15.1	15.5		103.4	106.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	12.1	12.2	13.3	16.1	13.4
SAS	15.6	16.8	18.9	13.9	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
J.R. Smith	62	58	0.75	-0.25	1.01	0.25	17	-10	27	13.5	13.1	0.35	15.1	17.9	-2.84
Kenyon Martin	78	75	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.30	5	2	3	13.1	14.4	-1.36	16.4	15.5	0.90
Carmelo Anthony	87	84	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.32	3	4	-1	13.6	11.6	2.01	16.3	15.6	0.74
Chris Andersen	43	40	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.09	9	-2	11	13.2	13.5	-0.30	15.6	16.6	-0.99
Nene	75	75	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.19	2	5	-3	14.1	11.1	2.94	16.7	14.7	1.94
Chauncey Billups	67	65	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.21	0	7	-7	13.8	12.5	1.26	16.3	16.1	0.15
Ty Lawson	46	46	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.12	-1	8	-9	11.8	14.7	-2.85	15.7	16.7	-0.94
Arron Afflalo	37	37	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	-0.01	0	7	-7	13.1	13.5	-0.44	17.7	15.3	2.35

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Keith Bogans	30	33	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.07	2	-9	11	16.6	16.0	0.59	14.8	12.6	2.20
Roger Mason Jr.	7	7	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	0.02	-2	-5	3	14.7	16.3	-1.63	8.9	13.7	-4.84
Tony Parker	70	70	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.18	1	-8	9	16.1	16.5	-0.37	14.3	11.1	3.13
Antonio McDyess	47	49	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.07	-3	-4	1	17.5	15.0	2.47	13.6	13.1	0.51
Richard Jefferson	70	72	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.29	3	-10	13	16.0	16.9	-0.95	14.1	11.5	2.57
DeJuan Blair	26	27	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	0.02	-8	1	-9	14.3	16.9	-2.64	13.7	13.2	0.48
Tim Duncan	70	71	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.20	-1	-6	5	16.6	15.3	1.21	13.7	12.4	1.29
George Hill	33	35	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.15	-5	-2	-3	15.8	16.4	-0.63	11.3	14.5	-3.24
Michael Finley	25	25	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	0.01	-11	4	-15	16.8	16.0	0.77	12.8	13.5	-0.74
Manu Ginobili	55	57	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.24	-7	0	-7	16.2	16.2	-0.03	12.2	15.0	-2.82
Matt Bonner	47	49	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.33	-4	-3	-1	16.0	16.4	-0.37	12.9	13.8	-0.98

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.59,0.6,0.55,0.59,0.63,0.57,0.53,0.56,0.65,0.66,0.7,0.64,0.65,0.56,0.59,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.59,0.67,0.74,0.77,0.7,0.73,0.64,0.71,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.43,0.3,0.38,0.42,0.31,0.24,0.29,0.32,0.34,0.09,0.07,0
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 79, BOS 74	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.55,0.6,0.61,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.63,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.62,0.58,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.69,0.69,0.75,0.73,0.74,0.72,0.7,0.69,0.67,0.65,0.62,0.69,0.63,0.48,0.52,0.42,0.43,0.38,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.34,0.27,0.31,0.36,0.09,0.04,0	93.8%
POR 89, SEA 85	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.58,0.64,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.56,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.7,0.75,0.84,0.8,0.78,0.73,0.73,0.74,0.78,0.81,0.7,0.52,0.48,0.38,0.34,0.25,0.38,0.42,0.36,0.4,0.4,0.31,0.16,0.09,0.04,0	92.9%
HOU 100, OKC 91	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.55,0.64,0.63,0.65,0.65,0.68,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.75,0.71,0.74,0.73,0.7,0.76,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.59,0.57,0.56,0.58,0.48,0.57,0.53,0.27,0.31,0.34,0.4,0.25,0.28,0.15,0.01,0	92.5%