NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	98		Excitement	4.8 [848]		MVP	Matt Bonner (SAS): +24.0%
San Antonio Spurs	112		Comeback	1.2 [1149]		LVP	Brandon Jennings (MIL): -23.5%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ersan Ilyasova	0.14	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.01	0.01	13	69%	0.14	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Hakim Warrick	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.13	0.00	0.03	7	79%	0.10	0	0.00	5	100%	0.02
Carlos Delfino	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	-0.00	0.00	7	79%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dan Gadzuric	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.02	0.00	5	60%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Francisco Elson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Roko Leni Ukic	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Bell	-0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.01	9	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jodie Meeks	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.04	0.00	0.06	4	87%	-0.02	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kurt Thomas	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	6	50%	0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Luke Ridnour	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	5	40%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Redd	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	0.00	0.02	3	33%	-0.04	1	-0.02	6	17%	-0.07
Brandon Jennings	-0.24	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.22,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.23,-0.24,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24	-0.22	-0.07	-0.05	21	29%	-0.14	5	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Matt Bonner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.26	0.04	0.05	10	100%	0.24	0	0.00	3	100%	0.00
George Hill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.08	0.03	-0.03	10	64%	0.14	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.11	0.03	0.04	17	59%	0.10	0	0.00	7	86%	0.02
Roger Mason Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.00	0.01	8	65%	0.03	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.01
DeJuan Blair	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.02	3	62%	0.03	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Keith Bogans	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	0.01	0.03	8	59%	0.02	1	-0.00	1	100%	0.00
Michael Finley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Theo Ratliff	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	100%	0.00	2	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Hairston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.07	-0.00	-0.04	4	25%	-0.03	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Richard Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.04	-0.02	0.02	7	50%	-0.02	3	-0.07	8	75%	-0.01
Tony Parker	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.11	-0.03	-0.01	7	43%	-0.00	5	-0.12	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.6	2.0	29.3	15.5	24.2	1.8	27.3	122.5
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +28.0%

SAS +8.1%

SAS +16.9%

MIL -3.2%

SAS +0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	SAS	NBA	MIL	SAS	NBA
this game	14.3	17.0	15.3	105.4	123.1	106.0
season	15.5	15.9		103.3	108.2
opponent	15.1	15.5		103.4	101.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	14.5	13.6	15.4	13.9	14.3
SAS	17.4	16.5	16.0	18.0	17.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dan Gadzuric	38	37	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.04	3	-17	20	13.3	15.1	-1.81	18.1	16.3	1.78
Francisco Elson	7	7	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.12	4	-18	22	8.3	14.8	-6.54	21.1	16.7	4.49
Roko Leni Ukic	7	7	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.12	4	-18	22	8.3	14.8	-6.54	21.1	16.7	4.49
Jodie Meeks	14	14	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.11	2	-16	18	12.3	14.7	-2.41	16.4	17.1	-0.76
Carlos Delfino	58	55	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.16	-2	-12	10	14.4	14.3	0.08	18.4	14.8	3.58
Hakim Warrick	38	39	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.00	-8	-6	-2	14.6	14.1	0.46	14.9	18.6	-3.68
Brandon Jennings	59	59	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.01	-8	-6	-2	14.8	13.4	1.41	16.5	17.8	-1.30
Charlie Bell	69	66	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.01	-8	-6	-2	14.4	14.0	0.45	17.8	14.8	2.98
Michael Redd	22	24	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	0.22	-17	3	-20	15.9	13.9	2.00	13.0	18.4	-5.43
Ersan Ilyasova	62	59	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.02	-9	-5	-4	14.3	14.5	-0.23	18.3	14.5	3.81
Luke Ridnour	50	48	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.08	-13	-1	-12	14.3	14.4	-0.12	16.4	17.7	-1.28
Kurt Thomas	41	40	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.01	-18	4	-22	16.2	12.8	3.37	15.4	18.3	-2.90

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Matt Bonner	47	48	0.59	-0.09	0.68	-0.17	26	-12	38	15.5	18.6	-3.08	16.3	12.3	4.00
Michael Finley	33	34	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.07	16	-2	18	15.5	17.8	-2.33	17.1	12.8	4.30
George Hill	49	52	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.22	4	10	-6	17.3	16.6	0.75	14.8	13.7	1.12
Keith Bogans	35	34	0.31	0.19	0.11	-0.22	18	-4	22	17.3	16.8	0.46	14.7	14.1	0.63
Roger Mason Jr.	44	46	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.29	0	14	-14	15.9	18.0	-2.11	14.5	14.1	0.37
Tim Duncan	59	62	0.29	0.21	0.07	-0.07	12	2	10	17.6	16.0	1.59	14.0	15.0	-0.95
DeJuan Blair	32	31	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.16	2	12	-10	16.0	17.6	-1.59	15.0	14.0	0.95
Tony Parker	52	52	0.06	0.44	-0.37	-0.08	5	9	-4	17.2	16.7	0.45	13.6	15.2	-1.63
Theo Ratliff	5	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.15	-5	19	-24	20.6	16.8	3.81	8.0	14.7	-6.69
Malik Hairston	7	7	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.12	-4	18	-22	21.1	16.7	4.49	8.3	14.8	-6.54
Richard Jefferson	54	56	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	-0.08	1	13	-12	17.4	16.4	1.05	13.3	15.9	-2.63
Antonio McDyess	38	38	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.06	-5	19	-24	18.6	15.9	2.71	12.7	15.5	-2.83

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.54,0.51,0.57,0.61,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.63,0.7,0.7,0.79,0.77,0.76,0.74,0.75,0.74,0.69,0.62,0.57,0.5,0.57,0.69,0.64,0.61,0.67,0.55,0.62,0.75,0.8,0.81,0.85,0.92,0.95,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.99,0.95,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 92, CLE 102	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.47,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.65,0.64,0.62,0.73,0.75,0.73,0.68,0.68,0.64,0.67,0.7,0.61,0.63,0.6,0.66,0.73,0.76,0.67,0.72,0.59,0.72,0.76,0.74,0.82,0.85,0.9,0.95,0.95,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.3%
WAS 81, IND 96	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.65,0.57,0.58,0.63,0.65,0.62,0.68,0.75,0.72,0.71,0.72,0.75,0.71,0.72,0.77,0.64,0.54,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.64,0.59,0.71,0.68,0.69,0.77,0.86,0.82,0.87,0.95,0.96,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.3%
MIA 89, ORL 102	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.57,0.59,0.61,0.68,0.68,0.7,0.66,0.7,0.72,0.77,0.81,0.83,0.76,0.71,0.78,0.74,0.66,0.61,0.54,0.55,0.63,0.61,0.67,0.7,0.68,0.71,0.84,0.89,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.96,1,1,1,1	94.2%