NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	103		Excitement	7.6 [279]		MVP	Zach Randolph (MEM): +22.1%
Memphis Grizzlies	98		Comeback	3.5 [194]		LVP	O.J. Mayo (MEM): -24.3%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ersan Ilyasova	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.07	0.08	0.01	10	69%	0.25	3	-0.10	6	67%	-0.04
Charlie Bell	0.14	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.14	0.05	0.07	-0.01	15	59%	0.18	2	-0.04	2	0%	-0.03
Brandon Jennings	0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.06,-0.03,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.07,0.1	0.08	0.06	0.05	18	57%	0.15	1	-0.05	10	90%	0.03
Hakim Warrick	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.00	6	57%	0.06	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Luke Ridnour	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	12	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Carlos Delfino	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	3	50%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Roko Leni Ukic	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dan Gadzuric	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kurt Thomas	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	8	50%	0.02	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Jodie Meeks	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.01	5	33%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Zach Randolph	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.10	0.13	0.01	9	82%	0.26	2	-0.03	4	100%	0.04
Sam Young	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.09	0.04	0.04	9	68%	0.09	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Rudy Gay	0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.01,0.16,0.09,0.09,0.08	0.08	0.02	0.05	-0.01	18	56%	0.21	4	-0.13	7	100%	0.07
Mike Conley	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.02	-0.01	9	55%	0.07	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
DeMarre Carroll	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.02	-0.00	3	30%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Marc Gasol	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.03	-0.03	0.02	8	70%	0.07	4	-0.10	4	50%	-0.01
Marcus Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24	-0.24	-0.13	-0.12	-0.01	6	0%	-0.16	1	-0.08	2	0%	-0.06
O.J. Mayo	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.18,-0.25,-0.24	-0.24	-0.13	-0.12	-0.01	18	37%	-0.16	3	-0.08	5	60%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.0	1.7	28.4	15.4	28.6	1.3	40.4	140.7
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +46.8%

MEM -19.0%

MIL +6.8%

MIL +11.0%

MIL +4.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	MEM	NBA	MIL	MEM	NBA
this game	14.0	14.8	15.3	102.0	99.0	106.0
season	15.5	15.4		103.3	106.8
opponent	15.0	15.5		108.4	101.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	14.3	12.2	15.0	14.3	14.0
MEM	12.3	18.5	17.0	12.3	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ersan Ilyasova	70	69	0.72	-0.22	0.93	0.31	14	-9	23	14.0	13.9	0.14	14.7	15.1	-0.37
Charlie Bell	85	83	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.40	6	-1	7	14.0	14.0	0.00	14.6	16.1	-1.50
Kurt Thomas	65	61	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.28	9	-4	13	14.4	13.2	1.17	14.9	14.7	0.16
Luke Ridnour	72	69	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.20	7	-2	9	13.4	15.6	-2.18	14.8	14.7	0.11
Brandon Jennings	66	64	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.46	-2	7	-9	14.3	13.5	0.79	14.9	14.6	0.32
Jodie Meeks	46	46	0.24	0.26	-0.02	-0.02	9	-4	13	14.1	13.9	0.24	15.6	14.1	1.50
Roko Leni Ukic	19	21	0.10	0.40	-0.31	-0.08	6	-1	7	12.3	14.4	-2.07	15.3	14.7	0.61
Carlos Delfino	23	24	-0.05	0.55	-0.61	0.12	-6	11	-17	15.3	13.6	1.75	13.6	15.2	-1.56
Dan Gadzuric	20	20	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.10	-8	13	-21	14.2	13.9	0.31	12.8	15.3	-2.45
Hakim Warrick	39	38	-0.28	0.78	-1.07	0.01	-10	15	-25	13.7	14.2	-0.54	15.7	14.2	1.51

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeMarre Carroll	35	38	0.13	-0.63	0.76	0.10	1	-6	7	15.5	14.4	1.14	13.5	14.3	-0.80
Sam Young	33	33	0.02	-0.52	0.53	0.08	-2	-3	1	14.4	15.0	-0.62	13.1	14.4	-1.31
Marc Gasol	76	78	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.35	8	-13	21	14.0	17.6	-3.59	14.4	12.5	1.91
Marcus Williams	41	44	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.29	-2	-3	1	15.3	14.5	0.79	15.4	12.9	2.46
O.J. Mayo	86	86	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.36	-4	-1	-3	14.5	16.7	-2.17	14.2	13.1	1.02
Mike Conley	65	64	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.19	-10	5	-15	14.9	14.6	0.29	13.3	15.1	-1.79
Rudy Gay	87	89	-0.61	0.11	-0.71	-0.43	-6	1	-7	15.0	13.6	1.39	13.7	16.1	-2.36
Zach Randolph	72	73	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.32	-10	5	-15	15.3	13.5	1.82	14.1	13.7	0.35

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.45,0.52,0.49,0.56,0.62,0.66,0.64,0.65,0.65,0.71,0.75,0.7,0.68,0.64,0.72,0.71,0.67,0.63,0.71,0.78,0.74,0.73,0.64,0.63,0.65,0.6,0.58,0.42,0.52,0.52,0.41,0.41,0.37,0.33,0.36,0.34,0.22,0.29,0.38,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.33,0.24,0.28,0.2,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 91, ORL 89	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.53,0.63,0.68,0.65,0.64,0.68,0.65,0.68,0.6,0.68,0.73,0.74,0.66,0.68,0.71,0.69,0.58,0.64,0.54,0.6,0.6,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.29,0.32,0.35,0.44,0.33,0.32,0.38,0.38,0.25,0.38,0.42,0.36,0.4,0.22,0.14,0.34,0.03,0.04,0	91.9%
BOS 120, POR 111	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.65,0.69,0.66,0.7,0.7,0.66,0.62,0.69,0.75,0.8,0.78,0.79,0.83,0.86,0.82,0.78,0.67,0.6,0.58,0.52,0.42,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.46,0.43,0.34,0.33,0.27,0.36,0.35,0.28,0.31,0.28,0.16,0,0	91.6%
MIL 104, CHI 96	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.68,0.7,0.72,0.7,0.74,0.7,0.7,0.66,0.7,0.64,0.65,0.63,0.63,0.66,0.59,0.66,0.7,0.78,0.7,0.62,0.6,0.51,0.63,0.52,0.48,0.35,0.3,0.34,0.23,0.36,0.46,0.38,0.29,0.24,0.23,0.31,0.47,0.39,0.25,0.37,0.09,0.04,0	91.4%