NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	74		Excitement	3.0 [1184]		MVP	Kevin Durant (OKC): +15.4%
Oklahoma City Thunder	102		Comeback	1.8 [276]		LVP	JJ Redick (ORL): -10.9%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mickael Pietrus	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.01	0.00	9	52%	0.06	0	0.00	11	45%	-0.05
Marcin Gortat	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.01	-0.03	8	50%	0.03	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	0.01	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	10	54%	0.07	4	-0.05	17	59%	-0.04
Anthony Johnson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Williams	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.05	0.00	-0.04	3	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	-0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0.02	10	48%	0.01	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Brandon Bass	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	10	36%	-0.04	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Matt Barnes	-0.09	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.01	7	50%	0.01	4	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
JJ Redick	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.16	-0.00	-0.05	11	22%	-0.07	3	-0.04	1	100%	0.00

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Durant	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.17	0.02	0.03	17	74%	0.17	2	-0.02	4	100%	0.01
Thabo Sefolosha	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.11	0.01	0.00	6	93%	0.12	1	-0.00	2	100%	-0.00
Jeff Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.02	0.00	7	64%	0.05	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nenad Krstic	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.01	0.01	12	58%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Ollie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	0.00	0.02	2	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DJ White	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	100%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Harden	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.01	5	42%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Etan Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	6	53%	0.01	2	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Russell Westbrook	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	12	61%	0.05	5	-0.06	4	100%	0.01
Shaun Livingston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	-0.00	-0.04	1	0%	-0.02	2	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	34.2	2.4	28.5	16.7	25.3	2.4	28.6	138.0
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +42.0%

ORL -2.8%

ORL -0.5%

OKC +11.7%

ORL -0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	OKC	NBA	ORL	OKC	NBA
this game	16.4	15.8	15.3	83.1	113.3	106.0
season	15.4	15.0		110.1	106.2
opponent	15.5	15.9		103.1	101.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	14.6	18.8	16.5	15.9	16.4
OKC	14.8	14.8	17.0	16.8	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Williams	35	36	0.14	-0.64	0.78	-0.13	9	-37	46	15.1	17.2	-2.02	17.8	14.5	3.32
Marcin Gortat	38	39	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	0.23	-12	-16	4	16.7	16.1	0.59	17.4	14.6	2.73
JJ Redick	70	72	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	0.24	-14	-14	0	16.1	17.5	-1.47	15.8	15.7	0.11
Anthony Johnson	6	5	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	0.08	-9	-19	10	21.5	16.0	5.50	16.4	15.8	0.62
Mickael Pietrus	64	66	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	0.20	-16	-12	-4	15.9	17.5	-1.54	16.3	14.5	1.84
Dwight Howard	62	63	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	0.10	-17	-11	-6	15.7	17.8	-2.07	15.3	17.1	-1.80
Matt Barnes	57	56	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	0.15	-19	-9	-10	16.5	16.2	0.33	15.7	16.0	-0.26
Brandon Bass	59	59	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	0.29	-25	-3	-22	17.0	15.1	1.92	14.8	17.7	-2.85
Jameer Nelson	54	54	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	0.45	-37	9	-46	17.2	15.1	2.02	14.5	17.8	-3.32

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Russell Westbrook	67	66	0.69	-0.19	0.87	-0.52	41	-13	54	15.1	17.8	-2.65	16.7	15.3	1.44
Kevin Durant	59	58	0.62	-0.12	0.74	-0.41	35	-7	42	15.5	16.5	-0.98	17.3	14.6	2.75
Thabo Sefolosha	63	61	0.61	-0.11	0.71	-0.19	27	1	26	15.3	17.0	-1.65	16.9	15.2	1.69
Nenad Krstic	39	39	0.43	0.07	0.36	-0.10	18	10	8	14.4	16.9	-2.52	17.0	15.9	1.12
Nick Collison	35	32	0.35	0.15	0.20	-0.21	19	9	10	16.1	15.7	0.40	16.4	16.4	0.06
Jeff Green	40	42	0.24	0.26	-0.02	-0.20	15	13	2	14.6	16.8	-2.23	16.8	16.0	0.88
DJ White	11	10	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	30	-32	18.5	15.4	3.12	15.3	16.5	-1.21
Shaun Livingston	24	25	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	0.07	-3	31	-34	17.6	15.2	2.47	16.8	16.2	0.54
Etan Thomas	43	43	-0.12	0.62	-0.73	-0.15	1	27	-26	16.9	14.8	2.10	15.0	17.6	-2.61
James Harden	37	36	-0.12	0.62	-0.75	-0.12	0	28	-28	16.6	15.2	1.38	15.1	17.2	-2.16
Kevin Ollie	32	33	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	0.14	-11	39	-50	17.1	15.1	2.04	14.8	17.3	-2.52

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.58,0.54,0.46,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.64,0.69,0.7,0.78,0.75,0.84,0.91,0.92,0.93,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 87, PHX 96	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.5,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.56,0.59,0.61,0.67,0.78,0.8,0.86,0.91,0.91,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,0.99,1,1,1,1	96.8%
GSW 94, ORL 111	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.5,0.45,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.59,0.66,0.7,0.75,0.8,0.88,0.9,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,1,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.8%
NOH 66, HOU 86	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.42,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.44,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.69,0.74,0.79,0.78,0.82,0.88,0.86,0.93,0.93,0.92,0.97,0.95,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.4%