NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	109		Excitement	3.7 [1064]		MVP	Shawn Marion (TOR): +15.3%
Chicago Bulls	98		Comeback	1.0 [217]		LVP	John Salmons (CHI): -6.9%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shawn Marion	0.15	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.27	0.01	0.13	18	85%	0.17	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.01
Jason Kapono	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.07	-0.00	0.03	6	75%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Roko Leni Ukic	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.00	-0.03	6	57%	0.04	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Joey Graham	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.04	6	33%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jake Voskuhl	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patrick O'Bryant	0.00	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	9	45%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Anthony Parker	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	0.02	-0.02	7	42%	0.04	2	-0.04	5	80%	0.01
Jose Calderon	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	0.01	0.03	12	54%	0.03	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
Pops Mensah-Bonsu	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.06	0.00	-0.03	4	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	-0.03	0,0,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.12	0.01	-0.08	23	40%	-0.01	4	-0.02	6	67%	-0.01

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Joakim Noah	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.13	0.01	0.04	11	74%	0.10	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Tyrus Thomas	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	11	55%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Linton Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brad Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	14	44%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Tim Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.02	5	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Rose	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.04	14	56%	0.03	2	-0.04	8	75%	-0.01
Ben Gordon	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	0.03	22	47%	0.00	2	-0.04	5	80%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.09	-0.00	-0.03	6	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Salmons	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.10	-0.00	-0.03	7	28%	-0.02	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.4	1.8	33.1	15.8	25.3	2.5	28.3	129.2
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +26.9%

TOR +1.1%

TOR +22.5%

CHI -1.9%

TOR +1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	CHI	NBA	TOR	CHI	NBA
this game	15.5	13.6	15.5	110.1	99.0	106.4
season	15.1	14.8		105.0	106.3
opponent	15.7	15.6		107.2	108.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	13.7	15.0	14.7	18.5	15.5
CHI	17.0	12.2	13.6	12.0	13.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Bosh	88	87	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.08	14	-3	17	15.4	15.6	-0.19	13.5	14.4	-0.90
Anthony Parker	71	70	0.46	0.04	0.42	-0.07	18	-7	25	15.1	16.3	-1.19	14.0	12.7	1.32
Patrick O'Bryant	56	56	0.46	0.04	0.42	-0.07	18	-7	25	14.5	16.7	-2.26	15.1	11.7	3.45
Shawn Marion	87	85	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.10	11	0	11	15.6	14.2	1.48	13.6	13.6	0.06
Jose Calderon	75	73	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.22	5	6	-1	15.7	14.9	0.78	13.5	14.1	-0.61
Roko Leni Ukic	25	27	0.15	0.35	-0.20	-0.02	6	5	1	14.5	15.8	-1.32	13.6	13.6	-0.05
Joey Graham	31	32	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.27	-5	16	-21	15.7	15.4	0.31	12.5	14.2	-1.71
Jake Voskuhl	12	13	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.03	2	9	-7	14.9	15.5	-0.62	12.3	13.8	-1.52
Pops Mensah-Bonsu	9	10	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.05	-1	12	-13	15.1	15.5	-0.39	16.3	13.3	2.97
Jason Kapono	41	42	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.30	-13	24	-37	17.4	14.1	3.29	12.1	14.7	-2.58

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Thomas	37	39	0.14	-0.64	0.79	-0.27	14	-25	39	11.5	14.9	-3.42	17.8	14.0	3.80
Linton Johnson	9	8	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	0.03	-3	-8	5	16.8	13.3	3.47	13.9	15.6	-1.73
Kirk Hinrich	37	37	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.17	-1	-10	9	12.2	14.5	-2.21	15.3	15.6	-0.31
Joakim Noah	62	63	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.03	-8	-3	-5	14.5	12.1	2.42	15.7	15.1	0.60
John Salmons	61	60	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	0.01	-12	1	-13	14.1	12.9	1.19	14.6	16.8	-2.28
Derrick Rose	86	87	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.18	-7	-4	-3	13.7	13.4	0.28	15.7	13.5	2.24
Brad Miller	65	64	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.26	-5	-6	1	13.0	14.9	-1.91	15.4	15.6	-0.17
Ben Gordon	74	74	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.10	-12	1	-13	13.5	14.0	-0.45	15.7	14.7	1.00
Tyrus Thomas	64	63	-0.55	0.05	-0.59	0.07	-21	10	-31	14.7	11.7	2.91	14.4	17.4	-2.98

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.41,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.26,0.24,0.23,0.25,0.23,0.24,0.22,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.26,0.29,0.39,0.42,0.33,0.25,0.18,0.12,0.23,0.18,0.22,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 83, BOS 67	0.5,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.35,0.33,0.28,0.28,0.24,0.21,0.23,0.28,0.24,0.2,0.19,0.2,0.26,0.27,0.31,0.29,0.28,0.16,0.12,0.16,0.2,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.13,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.8%
LAL 114, DAL 103	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.33,0.27,0.3,0.25,0.22,0.23,0.27,0.28,0.26,0.24,0.23,0.19,0.26,0.3,0.32,0.36,0.31,0.3,0.3,0.25,0.16,0.18,0.22,0.19,0.14,0.09,0.12,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.1,0.06,0.05,0.01,0,0.01,0.02,0,0,0.01,0,0	95.7%
MIA 115, ORL 91	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.35,0.35,0.36,0.33,0.28,0.27,0.3,0.28,0.22,0.17,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.36,0.25,0.25,0.17,0.18,0.2,0.17,0.08,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.12,0.06,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.8%