NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	93		Excitement	4.7 [896]		MVP	Vince Carter (NJN): +22.9%
New Jersey Nets	103		Comeback	1.4 [317]		LVP	Dwight Howard (ORL): -10.0%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hedo Turkoglu	0.17	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.13	0.04	-0.00	8	67%	0.17	0	0.00	8	75%	0.01
Mickael Pietrus	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.04,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	-0.00	-0.00	13	52%	0.06	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Rafer Alston	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	13	50%	0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
JJ Redick	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	-0.00	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	10	54%	0.04	2	-0.05	6	67%	0.01
Courtney Lee	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	11	45%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Johnson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	0.00	0.02	9	50%	-0.00	2	-0.03	4	50%	0.01
Marcin Gortat	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.01	-0.01	0.04	6	62%	0.01	2	-0.05	1	0%	-0.00
Adonal Foyle	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	0	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.05
Dwight Howard	-0.10	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.08	-0.02	0.00	7	33%	-0.04	2	-0.06	7	43%	-0.04

New Jersey Nets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vince Carter	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.08,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.14	0.06	-0.02	16	66%	0.26	1	-0.03	9	100%	0.04
Bobby Simmons	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.08	0.04	0.03	5	110%	0.14	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jarvis Hayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.05	0.02	-0.03	5	70%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Anderson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.02	-0.01	6	64%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Josh Boone	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.08	-0.00	0.01	6	85%	0.10	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Keyon Dooling	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.02	-0.01	9	63%	0.10	3	-0.07	1	100%	0.00
Brook Lopez	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.07	-0.00	0.03	9	65%	0.07	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Chris Douglas-Roberts	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	9	50%	0.03	4	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01
Yi Jianlian	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	5	25%	-0.03	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.1	2.5	27.4	15.4	27.2	1.8	29.3	131.8
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NJN +61.4%

NJN +1.0%

ORL -7.6%

ORL -7.4%

NJN +2.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	NJN	NBA	ORL	NJN	NBA
this game	17.3	17.0	15.5	109.4	124.1	106.4
season	15.3	16.0		107.3	106.5
opponent	15.5	15.8		108.9	101.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	16.6	20.0	16.0	16.9	17.3
NJN	16.1	15.2	16.7	20.1	17.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
JJ Redick	2	1	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.03	2	-12	14	19.5	17.3	2.23	22.0	16.9	5.10
Adonal Foyle	1	2	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	0.01	-3	-7	4	9.0	17.4	-8.42	21.0	16.9	4.14
Rafer Alston	49	48	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.11	0	-10	10	16.1	18.9	-2.82	16.0	18.2	-2.19
Dwight Howard	49	48	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.11	0	-10	10	16.1	18.9	-2.82	16.0	18.2	-2.19
Mickael Pietrus	47	47	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.17	-2	-8	6	17.8	16.7	1.10	17.1	16.7	0.43
Tony Battie	62	62	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.10	-5	-5	0	17.6	16.7	0.91	17.0	16.9	0.14
Anthony Johnson	36	35	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.10	-10	0	-10	18.9	16.1	2.82	18.2	16.0	2.19
Hedo Turkoglu	53	51	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.07	-11	1	-12	18.1	16.0	2.11	17.2	16.6	0.60
Courtney Lee	77	75	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.23	-8	-2	-6	16.7	23.6	-6.96	16.9	17.2	-0.32
Marcin Gortat	49	46	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.13	-13	3	-16	18.0	16.4	1.56	17.2	16.7	0.52

New Jersey Nets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bobby Simmons	26	26	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.03	13	-3	16	17.6	16.7	0.89	19.8	16.2	3.53
Yi Jianlian	44	44	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.03	13	-3	16	16.3	17.7	-1.42	18.6	16.0	2.59
Jarvis Hayes	44	46	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.14	9	1	8	17.3	16.5	0.80	18.2	16.2	2.01
Josh Boone	46	48	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.15	7	3	4	15.9	18.2	-2.31	18.5	15.8	2.72
Keyon Dooling	64	65	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.18	5	5	0	17.6	14.7	2.89	17.0	18.4	-1.42
Vince Carter	70	73	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.17	1	9	-8	16.9	17.2	-0.32	16.6	21.5	-4.87
Chris Douglas-Roberts	54	55	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.15	1	9	-8	16.1	18.5	-2.33	16.4	19.1	-2.70
Brook Lopez	37	37	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.06	3	7	-4	18.2	15.9	2.31	15.8	18.5	-2.72
Ryan Anderson	30	31	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.12	-2	12	-14	17.0	16.9	0.11	16.1	18.0	-1.87

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.5,0.55,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.56,0.6,0.64,0.69,0.69,0.65,0.67,0.72,0.83,0.82,0.82,0.83,0.82,0.78,0.71,0.8,0.85,0.85,0.73,0.77,0.91,0.82,0.87,0.94,0.89,0.85,0.85,0.88,0.83,0.81,0.89,0.91,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 102, HOU 111	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.59,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.65,0.66,0.69,0.69,0.73,0.74,0.8,0.83,0.85,0.86,0.85,0.8,0.8,0.84,0.84,0.83,0.81,0.7,0.79,0.85,0.84,0.88,0.87,0.93,0.9,0.93,0.86,0.89,0.88,0.96,0.97,1,0.99,0.98,1,1,1	95.6%
IND 96, CHI 104	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.55,0.54,0.6,0.66,0.64,0.71,0.72,0.7,0.77,0.81,0.84,0.88,0.84,0.75,0.77,0.74,0.83,0.81,0.79,0.77,0.8,0.81,0.88,0.84,0.82,0.87,0.81,0.87,0.93,0.93,0.97,0.95,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1	95.4%
WAS 83, MIA 106	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.59,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.64,0.6,0.6,0.72,0.71,0.73,0.81,0.77,0.78,0.8,0.76,0.79,0.85,0.83,0.79,0.87,0.9,0.84,0.92,0.89,0.85,0.85,0.85,0.79,0.89,0.91,0.89,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	95.4%