NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	107		Excitement	7.6 [312]		MVP	Rudy Gay (MEM): +21.9%
Memphis Grizzlies	112		Comeback	1.4 [702]		LVP	Brendan Haywood (WAS): -25.3%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Caron Butler	0.22	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.04,0,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.09,0.2,0.32,0.22	0.13	0.08	-0.01	19	69%	0.35	4	-0.13	7	100%	0.06
Nick Young	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.1	0.10	0.01	0.00	10	73%	0.12	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Javaris Crittenton	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	11	57%	0.09	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.00
JaVale McGee	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dominic McGuire	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.02	0.00	3	67%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Antawn Jamison	-0.02	0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.06,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02	0.04	-0.02	0.04	20	55%	0.06	3	-0.08	11	100%	0.07
Darius Songaila	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Andray Blatche	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.00	0.01	12	42%	-0.02	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02
Brendan Haywood	-0.25	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.25,-0.25	-0.12	-0.14	-0.01	6	14%	-0.07	2	-0.19	2	0%	-0.02

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rudy Gay	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.23,0.23,0.22	0.22	0.15	0.10	0.02	15	74%	0.28	2	-0.06	4	75%	0.02
Mike Conley	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0,0.2	0.20	0.14	0.08	0.02	11	79%	0.39	2	-0.19	6	100%	0.10
Darko Milicic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.05	-0.00	2	67%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.03
Marc Gasol	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.01	0.01	11	64%	0.12	3	-0.06	6	67%	-0.01
Quinton Ross	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	4	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hamed Haddadi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	5	42%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Greg Buckner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Hakim Warrick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.01	8	46%	-0.01	0	0.00	10	80%	-0.00
Darrell Arthur	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
O.J. Mayo	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.07	-0.07	-0.09	-0.00	-0.02	20	41%	-0.00	3	-0.07	4	100%	0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.9	2.6	31.6	15.5	24.4	1.0	46.1	146.1
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MEM +15.3%

MEM +20.1%

MEM +15.2%

WAS -0.1%

WAS -0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	MEM	NBA	WAS	MEM	NBA
this game	14.6	15.6	15.5	111.5	117.9	106.4
season	15.9	16.1		103.5	101.7
opponent	15.3	15.2		107.6	111.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	15.6	15.7	15.2	12.1	14.6
MEM	15.7	14.9	15.4	16.2	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
JaVale McGee	5	5	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	0.04	-4	-1	-3	17.4	14.4	2.97	16.4	15.5	0.87
Brendan Haywood	47	49	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.47	13	-18	31	13.5	15.6	-2.14	16.4	14.7	1.67
Nick Young	57	57	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.43	11	-16	27	13.1	16.8	-3.77	16.2	14.7	1.54
Andray Blatche	54	52	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.11	0	-5	5	15.3	13.7	1.63	15.1	16.1	-1.02
Darius Songaila	19	19	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	0.07	-10	5	-15	15.5	14.4	1.18	13.1	16.2	-3.09
Dominic McGuire	47	46	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.09	-14	9	-23	16.1	13.1	2.94	15.1	16.0	-0.95
Antawn Jamison	83	81	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.38	-1	-4	3	14.4	15.6	-1.19	15.9	13.6	2.27
Javaris Crittenton	86	85	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.34	-5	0	-5	14.6	14.3	0.32	15.5	16.0	-0.47
Caron Butler	82	81	-0.69	0.19	-0.88	-0.25	-15	10	-25	14.7	14.0	0.68	15.5	16.1	-0.66

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
O.J. Mayo	87	89	0.81	-0.31	1.11	0.22	20	-15	35	15.4	17.2	-1.82	14.8	11.7	3.09
Mike Conley	83	83	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.24	12	-7	19	15.7	14.6	1.14	14.5	15.1	-0.57
Rudy Gay	76	75	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.37	-2	7	-9	16.2	12.9	3.36	14.6	14.4	0.26
Marc Gasol	60	64	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.32	-3	8	-11	16.2	14.4	1.82	14.7	14.3	0.41
Hakim Warrick	59	59	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.16	2	3	-1	16.0	14.9	1.16	14.5	14.7	-0.15
Hamed Haddadi	16	15	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.02	5	0	5	15.1	15.7	-0.55	13.7	14.8	-1.09
Darrell Arthur	30	30	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.06	2	3	-1	15.2	15.8	-0.60	16.2	13.8	2.35
Darko Milicic	17	15	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.08	0	5	-5	15.4	15.6	-0.20	16.7	14.2	2.47
Quinton Ross	30	32	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.24	-8	13	-21	13.3	16.6	-3.28	12.7	15.5	-2.80
Greg Buckner	15	16	-0.05	0.55	-0.61	0.12	-6	11	-17	15.9	15.5	0.34	14.4	14.6	-0.25

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.61,0.67,0.62,0.58,0.5,0.53,0.53,0.64,0.6,0.54,0.63,0.58,0.61,0.69,0.81,0.73,0.7,0.66,0.69,0.61,0.52,0.64,0.68,0.62,0.78,0.79,0.89,0.9,0.96,0.9,0.91,0.95,0.88,0.69,0.76,0.73,0.68,0.78,0.78,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 88, CHH 91	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.5,0.54,0.64,0.59,0.57,0.6,0.53,0.58,0.57,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.62,0.63,0.68,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.73,0.67,0.69,0.75,0.72,0.61,0.61,0.65,0.68,0.66,0.76,0.86,0.91,0.94,0.84,0.85,0.92,0.81,0.78,0.76,0.94,0.97,0.72,0.78,0.58,1	91.8%
WAS 87, LAC 94	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.47,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.54,0.58,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.54,0.58,0.59,0.69,0.76,0.75,0.78,0.7,0.69,0.72,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.77,0.8,0.62,0.73,0.74,0.75,0.85,0.93,0.88,0.89,0.73,0.69,0.89,0.67,0.77,0.84,0.69,0.84,1	91.6%
PHX 100, TOR 104	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.52,0.46,0.44,0.39,0.45,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.61,0.69,0.64,0.58,0.7,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.63,0.66,0.67,0.76,0.82,0.75,0.79,0.86,0.86,0.93,0.96,0.98,0.93,0.79,0.73,0.74,0.71,0.67,0.68,0.46,0.77,0.58,1	91.6%