NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	103		Excitement	9.6 [86]		MVP	Jose Juan Barea (DAL): +79.3%
Dallas Mavericks	101		Comeback	2.2 [373]		LVP	Antoine Wright (DAL): -51.6%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carmelo Anthony	0.67	0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.17,0.2,0.18,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.26,0.26,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.25,0.25,0.19,0.35,0.31,0.31,0.67	0.24	0.50	0.07	29	67%	0.69	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.07
J.R. Smith	0.30	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.01,0.3,0.3	0.11	0.20	0.00	12	92%	0.49	5	-0.19	0	0%	0.00
Dahntay Jones	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.00	0.01	4	82%	0.09	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.01
Kenyon Martin	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.01	8	56%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Chris Andersen	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	5	58%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Renaldo Balkman	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Carter	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	4	40%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.13
Linas Kleiza	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	4	30%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Johan Petro	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	-0.26	0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.2,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26	-0.13	-0.14	-0.02	8	29%	-0.12	4	-0.14	1	100%	0.01

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jose Juan Barea	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.19,0.18,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.42,0.79	0.79	0.19	0.60	-0.01	12	85%	0.83	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.04
Jason Terry	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.06	0.02	17	50%	0.10	1	-0.03	6	100%	0.08
Brandon Bass	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.02	0.00	6	57%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Erick Dampier	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.01	2	62%	0.04	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Ryan Hollins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.00	6	56%	0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
James Singleton	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	5	30%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	9	35%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,0,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.28	-0.28	-0.00	-0.25	0.02	23	44%	-0.28	0	0.00	13	92%	0.08
Antoine Wright	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.18,-0.28,-0.28,-0.52	-0.52	-0.15	-0.36	0.00	7	6%	-0.49	1	-0.03	4	25%	-0.14

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.8	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.5	2.3	34.6	138.4
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +117.0%

DAL -22.0%

DAL -23.3%

DAL -25.8%

DEN +4.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	DAL	NBA	DEN	DAL	NBA
this game	15.5	17.1	15.5	117.0	113.5	106.4
season	14.4	15.6		109.5	108.9
opponent	15.4	15.7		107.1	105.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	15.0	14.2	16.3	16.4	15.5
DAL	17.7	17.1	18.0	15.6	17.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kenyon Martin	66	66	0.75	-0.25	1.00	0.46	10	-8	18	15.4	15.5	-0.11	17.2	16.8	0.33
Carmelo Anthony	75	76	0.72	-0.22	0.94	0.49	8	-6	14	15.3	16.5	-1.17	17.4	15.2	2.15
J.R. Smith	49	49	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.46	7	-5	12	15.7	15.2	0.42	17.4	16.6	0.85
Chauncey Billups	67	69	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.37	5	-3	8	15.6	15.0	0.61	17.1	17.1	-0.04
Dahntay Jones	30	31	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.14	2	0	2	15.4	15.5	-0.15	17.7	16.7	0.94
Anthony Carter	40	41	0.16	0.34	-0.19	0.39	-8	10	-18	15.3	15.6	-0.35	15.7	18.2	-2.57
Johan Petro	21	22	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.08	2	0	2	15.5	15.4	0.08	18.8	16.5	2.33
Linas Kleiza	13	13	0.07	0.43	-0.35	0.02	2	0	2	14.2	15.7	-1.54	17.8	16.9	0.91
Renaldo Balkman	22	23	-0.25	0.75	-1.00	-0.01	-8	10	-18	15.5	15.4	0.11	16.8	17.2	-0.33
Chris Andersen	57	55	-0.47	0.97	-1.44	-0.18	-10	12	-22	15.8	14.8	1.02	16.1	18.6	-2.51

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ryan Hollins	43	42	0.23	-0.73	0.96	0.05	6	-8	14	16.7	17.4	-0.67	14.9	16.0	-1.12
Brandon Bass	23	24	0.14	-0.64	0.78	-0.01	5	-7	12	16.8	17.2	-0.33	17.7	14.6	3.08
Gerald Green	40	40	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.05	-2	0	-2	17.2	16.9	0.33	15.8	15.2	0.57
Jose Juan Barea	57	55	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.47	7	-9	16	16.9	17.4	-0.48	15.7	15.1	0.55
Antoine Wright	54	54	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.24	-1	-1	0	17.3	16.8	0.49	15.8	14.9	0.90
Erick Dampier	42	41	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.10	-7	5	-12	17.8	16.4	1.32	16.2	14.9	1.32
James Singleton	45	45	-0.62	0.12	-0.75	-0.33	-10	8	-18	17.2	17.0	0.18	13.4	17.6	-4.18
Jason Terry	74	73	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.59	-2	0	-2	16.6	19.2	-2.56	15.9	13.5	2.41
Dirk Nowitzki	67	66	-0.66	0.16	-0.81	-0.48	-6	4	-10	17.2	16.5	0.69	14.9	17.2	-2.35

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.5,0.47,0.41,0.43,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.52,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.52,0.53,0.52,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.37,0.38,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.26,0.25,0.31,0.26,0.2,0.13,0.13,0.22,0.18,0.13,0.23,0.36,0.34,0.39,0.68,0.28,0.33,0.28,0
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 82, VAN 80	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.56,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.35,0.42,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.39,0.37,0.39,0.44,0.42,0.33,0.44,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.32,0.25,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.21,0.2,0.27,0.31,0.41,0.39,0.55,0.45,0.33,0.27,0	93.2%
NYK 98, NOP 91	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.41,0.45,0.47,0.57,0.6,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.44,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.47,0.39,0.44,0.33,0.32,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.29,0.31,0.35,0.37,0.23,0.18,0.19,0.07,0.12,0.2,0.37,0.31,0.24,0.27,0.47,0.46,0.45,0.17,0	92.4%
BOS 95, ORL 92	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.5,0.46,0.4,0.38,0.36,0.33,0.43,0.45,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.52,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.39,0.49,0.46,0.54,0.52,0.42,0.36,0.29,0.22,0.16,0.27,0.16,0.18,0.19,0.16,0.21,0.14,0.19,0.3,0.29,0.22,0.38,0.54,0.33,0.15,0	91.5%