NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	95		Excitement	7.7 [267]		MVP	Rajon Rondo (BOS): +14.3%
Orlando Magic	92		Comeback	1.7 [332]		LVP	Vince Carter (ORL): -17.8%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rajon Rondo	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.19,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.14	0.10	0.06	0.02	16	66%	0.27	2	-0.13	6	83%	0.01
Glen Davis	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.06	0.07	0.00	4	80%	0.13	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Paul Pierce	0.06	0,0,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.09,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.02	16	65%	0.19	5	-0.13	11	82%	0.06
Rasheed Wallace	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	6	50%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Allen	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	5	40%	0.04	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Kendrick Perkins	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.00	-0.02	0.01	5	71%	0.05	3	-0.08	4	100%	0.02
Kevin Garnett	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.16,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.01	16	29%	-0.09	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.04
Ray Allen	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.10	-0.06	-0.01	6	27%	-0.08	2	-0.07	3	67%	-0.01

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwight Howard	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.13	0.04	0.04	13	70%	0.20	3	-0.07	17	71%	-0.01
Mickael Pietrus	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.01	3	50%	0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Marcin Gortat	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	50%	0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
JJ Redick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.03	-0.09	0.01	9	62%	0.12	3	-0.18	8	100%	0.06
Matt Barnes	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	0.01	9	30%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Rashard Lewis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	-0.06	0.00	6	42%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.16,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.03	-0.01	12	37%	-0.03	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Vince Carter	0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.18	-0.18	-0.06	-0.11	0.01	15	43%	-0.07	3	-0.11	7	71%	-0.09

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	34.3	4.3	39.3	20.8	34.1	3.7	42.0	178.5
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +37.2%

BOS +4.0%

BOS +3.1%

ORL -0.1%

BOS +5.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	ORL	NBA	BOS	ORL	NBA
this game	17.2	15.4	15.3	108.0	103.4	106.0
season	15.5	15.4		105.7	110.1
opponent	15.9	15.7		101.9	102.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	16.4	17.0	16.9	18.5	17.2
ORL	14.9	15.7	16.6	14.2	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Paul Pierce	74	74	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.36	7	-4	11	17.3	16.8	0.47	14.9	17.5	-2.60
Kevin Garnett	67	67	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.29	8	-5	13	16.4	19.7	-3.26	14.7	17.5	-2.83
Ray Allen	74	74	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.32	7	-4	11	16.4	21.1	-4.71	15.4	15.2	0.21
Rajon Rondo	83	85	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.40	3	0	3	16.8	24.0	-7.23	15.4	14.5	0.91
Glen Davis	49	49	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.40	1	2	-1	18.3	15.8	2.54	16.3	14.2	2.04
Kendrick Perkins	30	32	0.09	0.41	-0.32	-0.03	4	-1	5	15.7	18.0	-2.30	14.0	16.1	-2.09
Michael Finley	7	8	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.08	-1	4	-5	20.7	16.9	3.84	13.1	15.6	-2.47
Tony Allen	26	26	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.13	-7	10	-17	19.5	16.2	3.24	17.1	14.7	2.41
Rasheed Wallace	30	30	-0.11	0.61	-0.71	0.10	-7	10	-17	18.6	16.4	2.15	16.9	14.6	2.26

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marcin Gortat	26	26	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.01	-3	0	-3	18.2	14.2	3.99	16.7	17.4	-0.64
Mickael Pietrus	29	28	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.06	-1	-2	1	15.2	15.4	-0.19	18.3	16.6	1.67
Jason Williams	20	19	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	0.02	-5	2	-7	15.3	15.4	-0.03	17.9	17.0	0.98
Matt Barnes	40	39	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	0.00	-6	3	-9	16.1	14.7	1.42	15.6	18.4	-2.81
JJ Redick	60	59	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.45	6	-9	15	15.9	14.3	1.52	18.1	15.4	2.69
Dwight Howard	74	73	-0.35	-0.14	-0.21	-0.47	4	-7	11	14.9	17.7	-2.84	17.4	16.0	1.42
Jameer Nelson	69	69	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.43	2	-5	7	15.4	15.3	0.03	17.0	17.9	-0.98
Vince Carter	49	50	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.31	-5	2	-7	14.2	16.8	-2.60	16.7	17.8	-1.07
Rashard Lewis	78	77	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.36	-7	4	-11	14.9	18.8	-3.93	17.1	17.7	-0.62

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.5,0.46,0.4,0.38,0.36,0.33,0.43,0.45,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.52,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.39,0.49,0.46,0.54,0.52,0.42,0.36,0.29,0.22,0.16,0.27,0.16,0.18,0.19,0.16,0.21,0.14,0.19,0.3,0.29,0.22,0.38,0.54,0.33,0.15,0
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 107, MIN 100	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.36,0.4,0.35,0.36,0.39,0.43,0.42,0.46,0.37,0.38,0.42,0.51,0.53,0.44,0.41,0.44,0.34,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.48,0.54,0.42,0.45,0.39,0.45,0.29,0.28,0.17,0.16,0.25,0.13,0.15,0.12,0.2,0.19,0.21,0.24,0.33,0.39,0.45,0.33,0.01,0	92.8%
NYK 98, NOP 91	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.41,0.45,0.47,0.57,0.6,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.44,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.47,0.39,0.44,0.33,0.32,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.29,0.31,0.35,0.37,0.23,0.18,0.19,0.07,0.12,0.2,0.37,0.31,0.24,0.27,0.47,0.46,0.45,0.17,0	91.8%
CLE 82, VAN 80	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.56,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.35,0.42,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.39,0.37,0.39,0.44,0.42,0.33,0.44,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.32,0.25,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.21,0.2,0.27,0.31,0.41,0.39,0.55,0.45,0.33,0.27,0	91.6%