NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	107		Excitement	7.3 [338]		MVP	Nick Van Exel (DEN): +43.0%
Minnesota Timberwolves	100		Comeback	1.4 [266]		LVP	LaPhonso Ellis (MIN): -26.3%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nick Van Exel	0.43	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.09,0.22,0.22,0.24,0.24,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.2,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.21,0.18,0.13,0.13,0.43,0.43,0.43	0.14	0.27	-0.02	20	68%	0.49	2	-0.06	4	75%	0.01
Raef LaFrentz	0.14	0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15	0.14	0.03	0.02	12	76%	0.15	0	0.00	9	89%	0.05
Voshon Lenard	0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.00	0.03	-0.02	14	61%	0.16	4	-0.11	3	33%	-0.03
Keon Clark	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	5	36%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
James Posey	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	-0.03	6	62%	0.09	2	-0.10	4	50%	-0.02
Antonio McDyess	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.07	0.03	-0.02	19	42%	0.03	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.00
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
George McCloud	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	3	25%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Robert Pack	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Todd Day	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.03	0.10	-0.02	5	73%	0.15	1	-0.00	1	100%	0.02
Wally Szczerbiak	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04	0.04	0.05	0.00	0.01	9	60%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Rasho Nesterovic	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	5	60%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Garnett	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.02	-0.01	19	60%	0.15	3	-0.13	4	100%	0.05
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.03,0.1,0.1,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	15	58%	0.09	3	-0.08	6	100%	0.04
Reggie Slater	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sam Mitchell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Peeler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	5	43%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Terrell Brandon	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.19,-0.19,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.12	-0.06	-0.01	9	30%	-0.06	3	-0.11	2	100%	0.02
LaPhonso Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.2,-0.2,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.1,-0.18,-0.26,-0.26	-0.26	-0.12	-0.13	0.01	17	41%	-0.12	5	-0.15	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	1.8	26.7	15.7	23.6	1.8	31.6	124.4
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +68.7%

MIN -20.8%

MIN -11.2%

DEN +9.4%

DEN +3.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	MIN	NBA	DEN	MIN	NBA
this game	15.0	13.8	15.5	107.0	100.0	100.9
season	15.2	15.0		101.4	102.9
opponent	15.9	15.2		101.7	104.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.7	15.8	14.6	15.9	15.0
MIN	14.5	12.5	14.8	13.4	13.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Voshon Lenard	86	85	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.18	18	-11	29	14.7	16.8	-2.08	14.2	11.4	2.82
Antonio McDyess	88	88	0.64	-0.14	0.77	0.26	13	-6	19	14.6	17.9	-3.31	14.7	7.5	7.16
Nick Van Exel	82	83	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.24	8	-1	9	14.5	17.3	-2.78	14.5	10.2	4.37
Raef LaFrentz	78	79	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.20	9	-2	11	14.7	16.2	-1.57	14.1	12.7	1.43
James Posey	65	67	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.23	7	0	7	14.2	16.5	-2.33	14.8	11.8	2.96
George McCloud	35	33	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.06	0	7	-7	16.5	14.2	2.33	11.8	14.8	-2.96
Robert Pack	22	22	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.09	-4	11	-15	17.2	14.4	2.86	11.5	14.5	-3.01
Keon Clark	34	33	-0.10	0.60	-0.71	0.13	-8	15	-23	16.8	14.1	2.76	10.8	15.3	-4.50
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	10	10	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	0.08	-8	15	-23	16.7	14.8	1.89	9.2	14.3	-5.11

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Reggie Slater	7	6	0.02	-0.52	0.54	0.02	0	-7	7	12.0	13.9	-1.94	17.2	14.9	2.30
Sam Mitchell	27	29	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.04	-1	-6	5	11.4	14.7	-3.28	15.2	14.9	0.29
Anthony Peeler	39	39	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.14	0	-7	7	13.3	14.1	-0.81	15.1	14.9	0.17
Terrell Brandon	58	57	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.04	-5	-2	-3	14.5	12.8	1.71	15.0	15.0	0.00
LaPhonso Ellis	74	73	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.38	5	-12	17	13.4	14.9	-1.52	15.5	13.7	1.73
Todd Day	29	30	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.24	-1	-6	5	12.9	14.2	-1.27	14.8	15.1	-0.33
Kevin Garnett	87	84	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.25	-2	-5	3	14.1	11.6	2.51	14.7	16.5	-1.79
Chauncey Billups	75	75	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.19	-8	1	-9	14.0	13.3	0.64	14.9	15.4	-0.53
Rasho Nesterovic	27	31	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	0.04	-16	9	-25	14.6	13.5	1.04	16.1	14.5	1.59
Wally Szczerbiak	77	76	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.25	-7	0	-7	14.4	11.7	2.79	14.3	17.1	-2.74

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.36,0.4,0.35,0.36,0.39,0.43,0.42,0.46,0.37,0.38,0.42,0.51,0.53,0.44,0.41,0.44,0.34,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.48,0.54,0.42,0.45,0.39,0.45,0.29,0.28,0.17,0.16,0.25,0.13,0.15,0.12,0.2,0.19,0.21,0.24,0.33,0.39,0.45,0.33,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 95, ORL 92	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.5,0.46,0.4,0.38,0.36,0.33,0.43,0.45,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.52,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.39,0.49,0.46,0.54,0.52,0.42,0.36,0.29,0.22,0.16,0.27,0.16,0.18,0.19,0.16,0.21,0.14,0.19,0.3,0.29,0.22,0.38,0.54,0.33,0.15,0	92.8%
POR 106, CHI 101	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.41,0.39,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.34,0.32,0.4,0.33,0.35,0.29,0.31,0.31,0.36,0.39,0.41,0.46,0.52,0.48,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.23,0.25,0.22,0.23,0.19,0.21,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.19,0.21,0.4,0.42,0.53,0.29,0.43,0.15,0	91.4%
CHI 94, HOU 89	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.41,0.39,0.38,0.37,0.38,0.37,0.47,0.48,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.52,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.36,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.34,0.2,0.23,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.12,0.13,0.19,0.17,0.24,0.27,0.31,0.21,0.16,0.15,0	91.4%