NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	94		Excitement	7.2 [406]		MVP	David Wesley (HOU): +25.9%
Houston Rockets	89		Comeback	1.3 [449]		LVP	Stromile Swift (HOU): -24.1%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ben Gordon	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.2	0.05	0.14	-0.01	9	69%	0.25	3	-0.05	8	50%	-0.10
Andres Nocioni	0.15	0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.04,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.15	0.08	0.09	0.01	10	71%	0.23	2	-0.08	4	75%	-0.00
Darius Songaila	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.08	0.06	0.00	3	90%	0.14	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Othella Harrington	0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.01	0.01	13	57%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Chris Duhon	0.03	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	-0.00	8	69%	0.08	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Malik Allen	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luol Deng	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.00	5	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Tyson Chandler	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	38%	-0.02	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.02
Kirk Hinrich	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.05,-0.05	-0.10	0.05	-0.00	10	19%	-0.01	1	-0.04	1	0%	-0.07
Michael Sweetney	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	11	31%	-0.08	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.02

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
David Wesley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.26,0.26	0.26	0.07	0.18	-0.01	10	57%	0.26	0	0.00	3	100%	0.04
Yao Ming	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.07	0.02	0.03	18	60%	0.21	4	-0.14	14	86%	0.03
Derek Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.00	10	50%	0.03	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Dikembe Mutombo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Lonny Baxter	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Moochie Norris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.09,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.03	-0.03	16	31%	-0.10	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luther Head	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15	-0.15	-0.05	-0.11	-0.01	11	46%	-0.02	3	-0.12	2	100%	0.01
Stromile Swift	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.29,-0.24	-0.24	-0.04	-0.16	0.04	9	50%	-0.16	3	-0.08	6	100%	0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	2.5	31.4	16.6	27.3	2.4	37.4	143.0
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +79.5%

HOU -31.8%

HOU -9.4%

CHI +13.2%

HOU -1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	HOU	NBA	CHI	HOU	NBA
this game	14.0	18.0	15.6	104.4	98.9	104.4
season	14.4	16.1		102.6	99.9
opponent	16.1	16.1		101.4	102.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	12.9	15.6	13.0	14.3	14.0
HOU	17.1	17.8	21.2	16.3	18.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Duhon	77	76	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.37	4	1	3	14.4	11.2	3.27	18.3	16.7	1.58
Ben Gordon	46	46	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.28	6	-1	7	13.4	14.5	-1.11	16.9	19.2	-2.36
Andres Nocioni	72	69	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.32	4	1	3	13.8	14.6	-0.75	18.3	17.2	1.11
Darius Songaila	26	24	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.14	7	-2	9	13.1	14.3	-1.24	16.6	18.6	-1.99
Othella Harrington	34	33	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.01	11	-6	17	12.7	14.7	-2.06	20.1	16.9	3.23
Kirk Hinrich	69	70	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.26	1	4	-3	13.7	14.8	-1.11	18.0	18.2	-0.26
Tyson Chandler	41	44	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.15	4	1	3	15.0	13.1	1.92	18.5	17.6	0.89
Malik Allen	4	4	0.06	0.44	-0.38	-0.03	3	2	1	8.0	14.2	-6.23	14.7	18.2	-3.45
Luol Deng	41	43	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.10	-4	9	-13	14.0	13.9	0.08	18.1	18.0	0.18
Michael Sweetney	40	41	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	0.16	-11	16	-27	15.5	12.7	2.82	17.5	18.5	-1.02

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ryan Bowen	19	18	0.23	-0.73	0.96	-0.15	13	-18	31	18.0	18.1	-0.06	15.8	13.5	2.35
Yao Ming	62	63	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.20	6	-11	17	18.8	16.4	2.45	14.2	13.3	0.89
Moochie Norris	19	21	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	0.04	-4	-1	-3	16.8	18.4	-1.59	16.8	13.1	3.72
Dikembe Mutombo	18	16	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.02	-2	-3	1	17.7	18.1	-0.40	16.3	13.4	2.87
Lonny Baxter	3	5	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.07	-6	1	-7	16.3	18.1	-1.77	12.0	14.1	-2.07
Derek Anderson	71	71	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.38	-1	-4	3	17.7	19.2	-1.41	14.3	12.6	1.68
Stromile Swift	41	44	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.15	-9	4	-13	18.0	18.1	-0.04	13.0	14.8	-1.83
David Wesley	80	78	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.43	0	-5	5	18.5	14.6	3.88	13.6	16.6	-3.03
Luther Head	81	81	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.32	-6	1	-7	17.9	19.2	-1.31	13.6	17.1	-3.51
Juwan Howard	56	53	-0.70	0.20	-0.90	-0.23	-16	11	-27	17.8	18.4	-0.64	12.8	15.6	-2.88

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.41,0.39,0.38,0.37,0.38,0.37,0.47,0.48,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.52,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.36,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.34,0.2,0.23,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.12,0.13,0.19,0.17,0.24,0.27,0.31,0.21,0.16,0.15,0
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 113, LAC 109	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.45,0.39,0.34,0.37,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.42,0.46,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.61,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.27,0.19,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.18,0.14,0.07,0.13,0.24,0.22,0.14,0.22,0.15,0.02,0	93.4%
NOP 100, SAS 99	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.5,0.44,0.43,0.37,0.41,0.43,0.4,0.34,0.35,0.38,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.35,0.39,0.39,0.44,0.36,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.35,0.3,0.26,0.15,0.13,0.1,0.18,0.13,0.09,0.14,0.09,0.05,0.1,0.11,0.1,0.04,0	92.2%
GSW 102, DET 98	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.56,0.56,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.41,0.35,0.38,0.35,0.4,0.38,0.32,0.42,0.44,0.39,0.38,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.35,0.38,0.31,0.41,0.33,0.21,0.13,0.1,0.14,0.08,0.14,0.17,0.24,0.34,0.19,0.07,0.05,0,0	92.1%