NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	99		Excitement	4.4 [937]		MVP	Stephon Marbury (BOS): +16.3%
Atlanta Hawks	93		Comeback	1.2 [701]		LVP	Al Horford (ATL): -9.8%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Stephon Marbury	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.12	0.04	0.00	5	110%	0.16	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Paul Pierce	0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.09	0.02	0.03	-0.04	15	52%	0.13	2	-0.04	10	80%	-0.00
Eddie House	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.06	0.01	-0.02	9	67%	0.09	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ray Allen	0.06	0,0,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.01	-0.00	17	59%	0.10	3	-0.04	3	100%	0.01
Rajon Rondo	0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.01	7	60%	0.05	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Mikki Moore	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kendrick Perkins	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	2	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Glen Davis	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	0.00	-0.02	18	46%	0.03	4	-0.07	5	60%	-0.00
Henry Walker	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.00	0.00	3	87%	0.04	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Josh Smith	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.01	-0.01	17	51%	0.05	3	-0.04	9	67%	-0.03
Joe Johnson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.01	0.01	0.07	-0.00	0.05	15	69%	0.08	4	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Solomon Jones	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Maurice Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	8	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Mike Bibby	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.06	15	56%	0.02	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.00
Ronald Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.00	0.02	13	38%	-0.05	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.02
Al Horford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.12	-0.02	-0.05	12	25%	-0.06	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.5	1.8	29.1	16.4	28.6	2.5	33.5	142.4
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +39.9%

BOS +3.7%

BOS +6.5%

ATL -1.6%

BOS +1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	ATL	NBA	BOS	ATL	NBA
this game	17.5	15.2	15.5	112.5	105.7	106.4
season	15.8	15.8		108.3	106.7
opponent	16.1	15.6		106.0	101.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	17.0	17.4	16.4	19.1	17.5
ATL	15.7	15.4	17.9	12.2	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Glen Davis	79	79	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.26	8	-2	10	17.5	17.8	-0.32	15.6	12.4	3.11
Ray Allen	69	67	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.36	2	4	-2	18.0	15.7	2.23	15.3	15.2	0.06
Paul Pierce	69	69	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.18	8	-2	10	17.3	18.3	-1.05	15.3	14.9	0.44
Eddie House	39	41	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.04	8	-2	10	16.8	18.0	-1.25	14.3	16.0	-1.68
Stephon Marbury	31	33	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.14	4	2	2	17.1	17.7	-0.65	14.3	15.8	-1.55
Mikki Moore	57	55	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.28	-1	7	-8	17.5	17.5	-0.04	15.5	14.9	0.58
Kendrick Perkins	37	38	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.12	1	5	-4	17.7	17.3	0.42	15.2	15.3	-0.10
Rajon Rondo	46	46	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.23	-3	9	-12	18.0	16.9	1.07	15.6	14.9	0.68
Henry Walker	13	12	0.10	0.40	-0.31	0.01	3	3	0	17.0	17.6	-0.57	16.2	15.1	1.07

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Solomon Jones	10	9	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	0.04	-4	-2	-2	17.0	15.0	1.99	18.2	17.4	0.82
Joe Johnson	74	72	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.29	2	-8	10	15.5	13.8	1.73	17.9	15.7	2.20
Maurice Evans	51	52	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.13	-5	-1	-4	15.8	14.5	1.25	16.4	19.0	-2.60
Zaza Pachulia	37	36	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	0.21	-17	11	-28	16.0	14.7	1.27	16.0	18.5	-2.57
Ronald Murray	53	54	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.31	-1	-5	4	13.5	17.9	-4.44	17.4	17.6	-0.21
Josh Smith	74	75	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.45	2	-8	10	15.0	16.7	-1.75	17.6	16.7	0.93
Mike Bibby	70	71	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.36	-2	-4	2	15.1	15.8	-0.68	17.8	16.3	1.48
Al Horford	71	71	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.33	-5	-1	-4	15.7	13.4	2.34	18.2	14.6	3.52

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.53,0.48,0.41,0.41,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.42,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.37,0.33,0.22,0.19,0.16,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.11,0.2,0.19,0.15,0.11,0.09,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 96, ATL 75	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.39,0.46,0.45,0.41,0.43,0.38,0.4,0.51,0.5,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.33,0.22,0.18,0.19,0.14,0.14,0.07,0.08,0.13,0.17,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.07,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.8%
MIN 121, UTA 104	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.45,0.46,0.41,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.37,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.37,0.39,0.43,0.44,0.43,0.39,0.36,0.22,0.19,0.12,0.11,0.04,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.1,0.06,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.8%
IND 95, ORL 92	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.46,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.4,0.37,0.33,0.28,0.36,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.25,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.11,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0.02,0	95.7%