NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	103		Excitement	4.7 [891]		MVP	Travis Outlaw (POR): +9.3%
Memphis Grizzlies	92		Comeback	1.0 [1121]		LVP	Rudy Gay (MEM): -12.1%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Travis Outlaw	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.10	0.02	0.02	11	69%	0.11	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Nicolas Batum	0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.01	-0.01	2	125%	0.07	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Joel Przybilla	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.06	-0.01	0.02	7	76%	0.10	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.01
LaMarcus Aldridge	0.04	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.09	-0.01	0.03	15	61%	0.06	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.00
Steve Blake	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.06	0.00	0.03	9	72%	0.07	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Channing Frye	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	5	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Brandon Roy	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	19	49%	0.07	3	-0.08	3	67%	-0.01
Jerryd Bayless	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.01	-0.01	3	50%	0.04	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Rudy Fernandez	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	0.01	-0.01	7	14%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hakim Warrick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.07	0.00	0.03	10	65%	0.05	1	-0.01	3	33%	-0.03
Marko Jaric	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.01	-0.01	2	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
O.J. Mayo	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.07	-0.03	0.03	16	64%	0.08	3	-0.07	1	100%	0.00
Darko Milicic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	2	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Mike Conley	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.06	-0.01	0.07	14	67%	0.07	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01
Darrell Arthur	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Quinton Ross	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	7	31%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Marc Gasol	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	8	50%	0.01	3	-0.07	4	100%	0.02
Rudy Gay	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.06	-0.03	0.03	21	38%	-0.09	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.3	3.3	34.5	15.5	25.4	2.5	27.6	136.1
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +38.1%

POR +2.8%

POR +3.6%

POR +2.8%

POR +2.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	MEM	NBA	POR	MEM	NBA
this game	17.4	16.5	15.5	121.2	108.2	106.4
season	16.7	16.1		111.0	101.7
opponent	15.3	16.0		107.6	105.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	16.2	13.2	22.2	19.6	17.4
MEM	19.8	14.5	16.9	15.4	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Steve Blake	67	67	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.04	18	-7	25	17.3	17.6	-0.27	16.9	15.1	1.74
Joel Przybilla	61	60	0.51	-0.01	0.52	-0.05	19	-8	27	17.0	18.4	-1.42	16.5	16.4	0.12
LaMarcus Aldridge	60	61	0.49	0.01	0.48	-0.07	19	-8	27	16.9	18.5	-1.53	17.7	13.5	4.21
Nicolas Batum	29	30	0.45	0.05	0.39	-0.05	17	-6	23	18.0	17.1	0.96	20.3	14.4	5.85
Brandon Roy	70	68	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.08	8	3	5	17.3	18.1	-0.81	16.7	15.6	1.12
Rudy Fernandez	46	46	0.12	0.38	-0.27	0.15	-1	12	-13	17.0	17.8	-0.82	14.0	19.4	-5.32
Travis Outlaw	41	42	0.08	0.42	-0.33	0.23	-5	16	-21	18.7	16.2	2.57	15.3	17.7	-2.41
Channing Frye	31	31	0.04	0.46	-0.43	0.30	-9	20	-29	17.6	17.3	0.39	14.9	17.4	-2.54
Jerryd Bayless	20	20	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.25	-11	22	-33	17.5	17.4	0.13	15.7	16.7	-0.96

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Darko Milicic	2	3	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.02	-2	-9	7	14.5	16.5	-2.03	14.0	17.5	-3.52
Marko Jaric	27	24	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	0.05	-5	-6	1	16.2	16.6	-0.38	19.1	16.7	2.40
Darrell Arthur	13	12	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	0.14	-11	0	-11	22.8	15.3	7.42	16.6	17.5	-0.95
Hakim Warrick	48	47	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.17	-1	-10	9	15.4	17.9	-2.45	16.0	19.1	-3.04
Quinton Ross	49	49	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.22	0	-11	11	15.3	18.1	-2.87	18.3	16.1	2.24
O.J. Mayo	74	73	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.14	-9	-2	-7	16.4	16.9	-0.49	17.4	17.4	-0.02
Marc Gasol	73	75	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.23	-7	-4	-3	16.7	15.3	1.34	17.6	15.6	2.04
Mike Conley	63	65	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.23	-7	-4	-3	16.9	15.4	1.45	17.4	17.4	0.00
Rudy Gay	76	77	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.10	-13	2	-15	16.6	15.7	0.91	17.1	20.1	-3.01

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.41,0.34,0.32,0.28,0.25,0.28,0.32,0.34,0.32,0.28,0.29,0.32,0.35,0.35,0.39,0.3,0.19,0.24,0.25,0.39,0.3,0.29,0.34,0.33,0.3,0.21,0.13,0.12,0.16,0.15,0.22,0.18,0.22,0.19,0.12,0.13,0.05,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 90, DAL 82	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.44,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.35,0.32,0.36,0.34,0.32,0.26,0.33,0.31,0.37,0.41,0.36,0.29,0.26,0.27,0.33,0.33,0.26,0.23,0.22,0.27,0.21,0.15,0.17,0.13,0.11,0.12,0.15,0.19,0.13,0.15,0.17,0.12,0.05,0.08,0.03,0,0,0.02,0.01,0	94.4%
NOK 91, PHX 87	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.41,0.4,0.31,0.3,0.29,0.31,0.29,0.29,0.34,0.32,0.28,0.3,0.29,0.33,0.24,0.27,0.27,0.19,0.23,0.22,0.27,0.26,0.31,0.36,0.34,0.3,0.18,0.2,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.08,0.14,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.05,0,0,0.08,0	94.3%
WAS 116, PHI 102	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.4,0.36,0.32,0.31,0.28,0.26,0.3,0.27,0.27,0.26,0.3,0.34,0.32,0.31,0.4,0.43,0.43,0.29,0.22,0.27,0.3,0.25,0.23,0.23,0.22,0.27,0.29,0.29,0.17,0.21,0.2,0.26,0.15,0.06,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0	93.8%