NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	99		Excitement	4.3 [967]		MVP	Carmelo Anthony (DEN): +8.4%
Denver Nuggets	112		Comeback	1.0 [1298]		LVP	Kyle Weaver (OKC): -18.5%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Robert Swift	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.08	0.01	0.02	5	83%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jeff Green	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	12	59%	0.10	3	-0.06	8	100%	0.04
Thabo Sefolosha	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	10	50%	0.03	2	-0.06	8	100%	0.03
Nenad Krstic	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	9	40%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Malik Rose	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.02	0.00	0.05	8	50%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	100%	0.00
Earl Watson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.05	14	56%	0.01	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.00
Russell Westbrook	-0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	0.01	13	43%	-0.01	2	-0.04	4	75%	0.00
Damien Wilkins	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Weaver	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.12,-0.17,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.10	-0.03	0.06	9	39%	-0.10	4	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.02	0.03	-0.03	19	52%	0.10	2	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.01	0.01	6	77%	0.09	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.02
Linas Kleiza	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.08	0.00	0.05	12	61%	0.04	1	-0.00	9	67%	-0.02
Nene	0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.02	7	67%	0.06	3	-0.04	4	50%	-0.01
J.R. Smith	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.03	9	50%	0.03	2	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	5	50%	0.02	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Renaldo Balkman	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	13	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	0.04	13	55%	0.03	3	-0.06	5	80%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	2.4	27.5	16.4	31.9	2.0	28.6	133.1
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +43.9%

OKC -8.8%

DEN +1.7%

DEN +13.2%

DEN +0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	DEN	NBA	OKC	DEN	NBA
this game	15.3	14.9	15.5	103.1	117.9	106.4
season	14.9	14.4		100.5	109.5
opponent	15.7	15.1		105.2	106.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	17.3	14.8	13.2	16.4	15.3
DEN	13.4	15.9	13.4	17.1	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Damien Wilkins	17	18	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.10	-1	-12	11	19.5	14.4	5.08	19.1	13.9	5.24
Earl Watson	68	66	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.25	3	-16	19	14.6	17.0	-2.41	15.2	14.1	1.09
Robert Swift	33	31	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	0.03	-7	-6	-1	15.3	15.3	-0.03	13.9	15.3	-1.47
Malik Rose	49	48	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.13	-4	-9	5	16.8	13.7	3.03	15.8	13.9	1.83
Kyle Weaver	49	49	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.17	-3	-10	7	15.3	15.3	-0.01	14.9	14.8	0.11
Nenad Krstic	63	64	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.15	-6	-7	1	15.3	15.3	0.03	15.3	13.9	1.47
Thabo Sefolosha	80	79	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.17	-6	-7	1	14.4	19.6	-5.12	14.4	17.1	-2.72
Jeff Green	59	58	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	0.16	-19	6	-25	15.2	15.5	-0.36	14.2	15.9	-1.68
Russell Westbrook	62	62	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	0.20	-22	9	-31	15.0	15.9	-0.87	13.7	17.0	-3.27

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chauncey Billups	81	82	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.11	11	2	9	15.1	13.3	1.85	15.3	15.2	0.09
Renaldo Balkman	60	61	0.43	0.07	0.36	-0.10	18	-5	23	14.4	15.7	-1.30	15.8	14.4	1.40
Anthony Carter	55	56	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.01	14	-1	15	14.4	15.4	-1.01	14.5	16.3	-1.81
Carmelo Anthony	69	70	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.12	7	6	1	14.8	15.0	-0.24	15.2	15.5	-0.23
Nene	78	78	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.29	1	12	-11	15.1	13.8	1.27	14.8	17.6	-2.85
Linas Kleiza	41	42	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.03	8	5	3	16.1	13.9	2.13	16.0	14.7	1.34
Chris Andersen	37	37	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.02	5	8	-3	13.9	15.4	-1.50	14.8	15.6	-0.74
J.R. Smith	54	54	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.11	1	12	-11	14.9	14.8	0.06	16.1	14.3	1.75

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.61,0.64,0.68,0.7,0.71,0.71,0.74,0.78,0.76,0.79,0.81,0.88,0.84,0.85,0.8,0.79,0.75,0.67,0.75,0.77,0.72,0.78,0.87,0.89,0.82,0.9,0.92,0.89,0.86,0.9,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,0.99,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 94, POR 109	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.62,0.67,0.65,0.67,0.68,0.71,0.74,0.76,0.74,0.79,0.81,0.78,0.8,0.77,0.74,0.76,0.75,0.75,0.7,0.77,0.72,0.78,0.88,0.88,0.91,0.9,0.94,0.92,0.89,0.9,0.92,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.7%
POR 98, CHI 110	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.56,0.6,0.65,0.66,0.67,0.69,0.71,0.71,0.72,0.79,0.82,0.82,0.81,0.83,0.82,0.83,0.8,0.75,0.77,0.7,0.75,0.81,0.84,0.8,0.89,0.88,0.92,0.94,0.92,0.91,0.95,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,1,1,1,1	96.5%
MIL 93, BKN 104	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.6,0.62,0.59,0.65,0.69,0.76,0.76,0.75,0.81,0.78,0.77,0.83,0.9,0.86,0.83,0.87,0.8,0.75,0.75,0.8,0.81,0.8,0.87,0.85,0.88,0.92,0.91,0.87,0.9,0.92,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1	96.3%