NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	86		Excitement	3.6 [1086]		MVP	Rashard Lewis (ORL): +4.9%
Boston Celtics	79		Comeback	1.3 [487]		LVP	Paul Pierce (BOS): -18.2%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rashard Lewis	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05	-0.02	0.02	-0.06	12	54%	0.10	3	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Dwight Howard	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	0.00	0.01	13	56%	0.07	2	-0.03	6	100%	0.01
JJ Redick	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	1	150%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Johnson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	5	60%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mickael Pietrus	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.01	6	57%	0.03	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.02
Courtney Lee	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	4	25%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	14	53%	0.04	3	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Marcin Gortat	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	5	60%	0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	4	25%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rafer Alston	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	11	42%	-0.02	3	-0.06	2	50%	-0.00

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kendrick Perkins	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	9	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.02
Mikki Moore	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gabe Pruitt	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ray Allen	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.06,-0.02	-0.02	0.09	-0.06	0.05	25	56%	0.03	2	-0.04	7	100%	0.03
Eddie House	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	6	42%	-0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Stephon Marbury	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	-0.00	-0.02	5	36%	-0.01	3	-0.04	1	0%	-0.01
Leon Powe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	0.00	0.02	10	50%	-0.01	3	-0.05	4	100%	0.00
Glen Davis	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.09	0.00	-0.03	3	0%	-0.03	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Paul Pierce	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.16	-0.03	-0.01	15	40%	-0.05	6	-0.13	10	60%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.7	2.0	31.3	16.5	26.3	2.4	35.5	137.6
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +44.3%

ORL +1.2%

BOS -4.2%

ORL +8.5%

ORL +0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	BOS	NBA	ORL	BOS	NBA
this game	15.7	15.3	15.5	92.5	84.9	106.4
season	15.3	15.8		107.3	108.3
opponent	15.6	15.8		101.7	101.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	13.0	14.5	16.8	18.5	15.7
BOS	16.3	16.1	15.9	12.8	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marcin Gortat	44	44	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.00	13	-6	19	15.1	16.1	-1.03	16.2	14.5	1.74
Rashard Lewis	67	68	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.17	5	2	3	15.7	15.7	0.00	14.9	16.4	-1.43
Dwight Howard	54	55	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.17	5	2	3	16.3	14.8	1.48	15.7	14.8	0.84
Hedo Turkoglu	72	72	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.32	-1	8	-9	15.7	15.6	0.11	15.0	16.3	-1.26
Anthony Johnson	28	29	0.26	0.24	0.01	-0.04	10	-3	13	16.1	15.4	0.70	17.0	14.6	2.40
JJ Redick	16	16	0.25	0.25	-0.00	-0.07	11	-4	15	14.7	15.8	-1.09	17.6	14.8	2.79
Rafer Alston	65	64	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.33	-3	10	-13	15.4	16.1	-0.70	14.6	17.0	-2.40
Mickael Pietrus	31	30	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.03	7	0	7	16.0	15.5	0.52	15.1	15.4	-0.36
Courtney Lee	71	71	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.36	-5	12	-17	15.6	16.0	-0.39	15.0	16.2	-1.14
Tony Battie	17	16	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	0.20	-7	14	-21	15.6	15.7	-0.08	13.9	15.6	-1.74

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gabe Pruitt	5	4	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.05	-4	-3	-1	16.6	15.2	1.36	15.2	15.7	-0.42
Glen Davis	37	37	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.08	-9	2	-11	16.3	14.6	1.68	14.9	16.2	-1.27
Leon Powe	58	57	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.43	8	-15	23	14.5	16.7	-2.20	16.5	14.4	2.11
Mikki Moore	26	26	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.14	-3	-4	1	15.5	15.2	0.26	16.9	15.2	1.71
Stephon Marbury	41	42	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.09	-14	7	-21	16.1	14.7	1.49	14.5	16.6	-2.19
Eddie House	58	57	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.32	0	-7	7	14.7	16.4	-1.70	16.3	14.7	1.57
Paul Pierce	88	88	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.36	0	-7	7	15.2	17.4	-2.21	15.8	13.4	2.38
Kendrick Perkins	64	65	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.10	-10	3	-13	15.6	14.7	0.95	15.0	17.3	-2.33
Ray Allen	88	89	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.34	-3	-4	1	15.2	16.6	-1.36	15.7	15.2	0.42

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.35,0.34,0.3,0.23,0.17,0.15,0.16,0.12,0.1,0.11,0.05,0.08,0.07,0.11,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.1,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.1,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 105, CHH 89	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.39,0.38,0.38,0.39,0.35,0.36,0.31,0.23,0.21,0.15,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0	95.9%
UTA 109, MIN 83	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.52,0.5,0.46,0.44,0.43,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.29,0.19,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.6%
SAS 117, MIL 110	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.39,0.41,0.45,0.43,0.35,0.36,0.36,0.28,0.24,0.22,0.21,0.19,0.17,0.14,0.11,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.11,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.04,0,0.01,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0	95.6%