NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	83		Excitement	7.0 [425]		MVP	Al Horford (ATL): +14.0%
Atlanta Hawks	87		Comeback	2.6 [555]		LVP	Tayshaun Prince (DET): -13.0%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Will Bynum	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.01	0.00	3	75%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Jason Maxiell	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Arron Afflalo	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.02	0.00	2	75%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Richard Hamilton	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0.03,0.16,0.07,0.07,0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	19	53%	0.17	3	-0.18	0	0%	0.00
Walter Herrmann	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kwame Brown	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Stuckey	-0.08	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	0.00	-0.09	-0.01	14	56%	0.03	4	-0.12	6	83%	0.01
Rasheed Wallace	-0.10	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.1	-0.02	-0.07	0.00	13	44%	-0.08	1	-0.01	6	67%	-0.03
Antonio McDyess	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11	-0.06	-0.04	0.00	7	37%	-0.06	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Tayshaun Prince	-0.13	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.10	-0.06	-0.02	14	30%	-0.11	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Al Horford	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.08	0.08	0.01	13	64%	0.16	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Mike Bibby	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.12	0.03	0.04	12	68%	0.11	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Ronald Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	-0.01	0.07	-0.01	11	43%	0.07	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.02
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	3	62%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Mario West	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Acie Law	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Smith	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	17	44%	0.04	2	-0.05	9	78%	-0.00
Maurice Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Johnson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	-0.02	12	43%	-0.01	3	-0.05	4	75%	0.01
Marvin Williams	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	8	25%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.3	1.7	27.1	15.7	27.2	2.6	36.2	136.9
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +22.0%

ATL +6.4%

DET -3.4%

ATL +26.7%

DET -1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	ATL	NBA	DET	ATL	NBA
this game	18.6	15.9	15.5	100.0	103.6	106.4
season	16.9	15.8		104.9	106.7
opponent	16.1	15.7		106.0	106.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	16.2	21.1	19.0	18.6	18.6
ATL	15.1	14.2	17.0	17.4	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kwame Brown	11	12	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.04	-2	-2	0	17.1	18.9	-1.77	14.7	16.1	-1.42
Walter Herrmann	12	12	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	0.08	-5	1	-6	21.7	18.1	3.55	14.6	16.1	-1.51
Arron Afflalo	27	27	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.19	1	-5	6	15.0	20.4	-5.43	17.0	15.4	1.59
Rodney Stuckey	64	64	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.35	6	-10	16	18.8	18.1	0.74	15.9	15.9	-0.02
Rasheed Wallace	62	62	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.33	4	-8	12	19.1	17.1	2.05	16.0	15.6	0.33
Jason Maxiell	33	33	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.10	-5	1	-6	15.6	20.6	-5.06	16.9	15.2	1.64
Tayshaun Prince	66	68	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.38	4	-8	12	17.9	21.5	-3.58	16.2	14.6	1.55
Will Bynum	21	21	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.07	-9	5	-14	18.0	18.8	-0.77	16.0	15.8	0.16
Antonio McDyess	59	60	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.36	-5	1	-6	20.3	14.4	5.92	15.7	16.4	-0.69
Richard Hamilton	60	61	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.26	-9	5	-14	20.2	14.4	5.80	15.1	18.0	-2.86

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike Bibby	61	60	0.65	-0.15	0.81	0.27	13	-9	22	16.1	15.2	0.91	19.5	16.4	3.09
Joe Johnson	72	71	0.64	-0.14	0.79	0.29	12	-8	20	15.4	18.9	-3.54	19.6	12.7	6.87
Josh Smith	75	75	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.34	2	2	0	15.7	17.1	-1.38	18.8	17.2	1.52
Al Horford	71	70	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.38	-2	6	-8	16.2	14.1	2.13	18.5	19.1	-0.53
Ronald Murray	47	46	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.42	-4	8	-12	17.0	14.5	2.54	17.5	20.0	-2.53
Zaza Pachulia	22	21	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.08	6	-2	8	15.3	16.1	-0.76	18.4	18.7	-0.33
Marvin Williams	46	47	0.11	0.39	-0.29	-0.04	5	-1	6	14.9	17.1	-2.24	19.5	17.5	1.94
Mario West	1	1	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.06	0	4	-4	0.0	16.1	-16.07	15.0	18.7	-3.67
Maurice Evans	20	19	-0.10	0.60	-0.69	0.08	-6	10	-16	16.8	15.6	1.21	14.8	19.8	-4.98
Acie Law	5	5	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	0.03	-6	10	-16	18.4	15.7	2.68	12.0	19.1	-7.05

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.39,0.4,0.38,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.42,0.4,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.44,0.37,0.31,0.33,0.31,0.36,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.36,0.39,0.36,0.38,0.41,0.52,0.48,0.63,0.56,0.62,0.7,0.79,0.79,0.73,0.89,0.85,0.73,0.54,0.78,0.84,0.97,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 99, UTA 103	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.34,0.32,0.33,0.35,0.39,0.37,0.36,0.29,0.26,0.3,0.33,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.35,0.38,0.48,0.41,0.44,0.56,0.66,0.82,0.82,0.79,0.8,0.79,0.76,0.83,0.75,0.89,1,1,1	92.5%
NYK 71, CHA 76	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.43,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.29,0.27,0.31,0.26,0.25,0.31,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.5,0.43,0.37,0.42,0.36,0.42,0.38,0.32,0.41,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.62,0.57,0.57,0.8,0.77,0.74,0.65,0.66,0.76,0.72,0.78,0.95,1	92.1%
MIL 93, ATL 103	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.46,0.38,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.43,0.45,0.34,0.25,0.22,0.26,0.36,0.35,0.35,0.39,0.29,0.26,0.31,0.33,0.44,0.49,0.38,0.37,0.33,0.3,0.27,0.29,0.35,0.41,0.48,0.6,0.52,0.66,0.62,0.66,0.76,0.72,0.63,0.76,0.67,0.81,0.71,0.94,0.99,1	91.7%