NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Phoenix Suns	129		Excitement	7.1 [402]		MVP	Daequan Cook (MIA): +35.9%
Miami Heat	135		Comeback	1.3 [857]		LVP	Jermaine O'Neal (MIA): -13.4%

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Steve Nash	0.16	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.06	0.06	17	76%	0.24	3	-0.08	4	75%	0.01
Shaquille O'Neal	0.13	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.12,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.10	0.05	0.01	13	63%	0.16	1	-0.03	9	67%	-0.03
Jared Dudley	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.02	0.03	-0.02	4	80%	0.10	2	-0.03	2	0%	-0.05
Matt Barnes	0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07	0.12	-0.01	0.03	10	86%	0.13	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Lou Amundson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	3	87%	0.08	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Jason Richardson	0.01	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.22,0.23,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01	0.09	-0.06	0.02	16	63%	0.11	2	-0.10	3	100%	0.02
Leandro Barbosa	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	-0.01	10	43%	0.00	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Grant Hill	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	0.02	13	41%	-0.05	1	-0.03	6	50%	-0.04

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Daequan Cook	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.2,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.36	0.36	0.24	0.12	0.00	14	84%	0.36	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Michael Beasley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.13,0.22,0.22,0.2,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.18	0.09	0.03	16	72%	0.29	1	-0.05	7	100%	0.04
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.20	0.05	0.05	21	69%	0.22	1	-0.03	9	78%	0.01
Jamario Moon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.12	0.02	0.01	9	71%	0.13	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.04	0.08	0.00	5	83%	0.17	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Mario Chalmers	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.04	0.02	9	70%	0.12	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.00
James Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	-0.00	-0.02	3	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jermaine O'Neal	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.12	-0.03	-0.02	7	37%	0.00	5	-0.14	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.3	1.7	29.2	16.4	27.3	2.5	39.2	143.6
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +42.4%

MIA +6.4%

PHX -3.8%

MIA +1.9%

MIA +3.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	PHX	MIA	NBA	PHX	MIA	NBA
this game	12.5	15.3	15.5	125.2	129.8	106.4
season	14.1	16.0		112.1	105.9
opponent	15.7	15.5		105.7	109.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
PHX	12.0	12.2	14.2	11.5	12.5
MIA	15.1	17.8	13.5	15.2	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jared Dudley	31	31	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.18	7	-13	20	12.7	12.4	0.29	17.9	14.2	3.70
Steve Nash	81	82	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.29	4	-10	14	12.2	13.4	-1.13	15.6	14.3	1.29
Shaquille O'Neal	62	63	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.28	3	-9	12	12.0	13.2	-1.24	16.7	13.2	3.49
Lou Amundson	30	30	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	0.01	-9	3	-12	14.5	11.6	2.86	14.8	15.6	-0.75
Leandro Barbosa	65	66	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.33	-3	-3	0	12.2	13.0	-0.83	15.3	15.4	-0.09
Grant Hill	72	73	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.10	-12	6	-18	12.7	11.9	0.82	14.4	17.6	-3.20
Matt Barnes	87	87	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.21	-9	3	-12	12.3	13.4	-1.06	14.9	17.7	-2.83
Jason Richardson	87	88	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.25	-11	5	-16	12.5	12.5	-0.03	14.6	19.2	-4.55

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwyane Wade	86	85	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.21	15	-9	24	14.6	18.9	-4.36	12.3	13.3	-0.97
Jamario Moon	73	73	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.16	15	-9	24	13.9	18.7	-4.81	12.4	12.6	-0.22
Daequan Cook	80	79	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.34	4	2	2	15.3	15.6	-0.32	12.1	13.7	-1.66
Udonis Haslem	73	73	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.18	9	-3	12	14.3	17.8	-3.56	12.5	12.5	0.01
Michael Beasley	59	55	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.25	5	1	4	15.8	14.8	1.02	12.7	12.2	0.50
Jermaine O'Neal	45	47	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.11	4	2	2	16.1	14.8	1.33	12.9	12.1	0.77
Mario Chalmers	67	67	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.21	-6	12	-18	16.3	13.6	2.62	12.8	11.9	0.94
Joel Anthony	22	21	-0.12	0.62	-0.75	0.08	-7	13	-20	18.0	14.6	3.44	12.1	12.6	-0.48
James Jones	15	15	-0.18	0.68	-0.87	0.08	-9	15	-24	20.1	14.5	5.53	12.7	12.4	0.22

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.61,0.65,0.73,0.73,0.72,0.66,0.74,0.66,0.65,0.65,0.68,0.75,0.74,0.69,0.61,0.73,0.67,0.63,0.63,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.63,0.67,0.75,0.85,0.87,0.82,0.76,0.81,0.86,0.76,0.87,0.93,0.91,0.91,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 95, DAL 101	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.61,0.67,0.69,0.71,0.72,0.74,0.72,0.73,0.65,0.67,0.76,0.77,0.82,0.8,0.77,0.67,0.63,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.71,0.71,0.68,0.62,0.7,0.67,0.72,0.78,0.8,0.74,0.75,0.78,0.74,0.85,0.94,0.93,0.9,0.9,0.99,1	94.2%
WAS 90, ATL 106	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.61,0.65,0.65,0.69,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.68,0.67,0.67,0.63,0.72,0.73,0.71,0.61,0.59,0.56,0.7,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.61,0.7,0.62,0.59,0.69,0.56,0.56,0.64,0.7,0.78,0.82,0.8,0.73,0.86,0.81,0.95,0.99,0.96,1,1,1	94.1%
PHI 84, TOR 94	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.53,0.59,0.63,0.6,0.63,0.68,0.65,0.66,0.72,0.7,0.69,0.65,0.68,0.79,0.8,0.72,0.7,0.75,0.67,0.6,0.63,0.61,0.7,0.67,0.71,0.68,0.62,0.66,0.7,0.64,0.74,0.66,0.7,0.76,0.81,0.79,0.88,0.95,0.99,0.99,1,1,1	93.7%