NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	87		Excitement	4.3 [970]		MVP	Thabo Sefolosha (OKC): +11.3%
Oklahoma City Thunder	96		Comeback	1.1 [428]		LVP	Antoine Wright (DAL): -9.1%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,0,-0.01,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.02	21	56%	0.11	3	-0.05	8	87%	0.02
James Singleton	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.01	5	67%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	-0.00
Gerald Green	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03	0.01	-0.00	-0.03	4	62%	0.04	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Erick Dampier	0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	2	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Terry	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.05	-0.00	0.03	19	53%	0.02	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Howard	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	7	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jose Juan Barea	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.08	-0.00	-0.04	6	17%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Bass	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	3	50%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Devean George	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kidd	-0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	0.02	8	50%	0.00	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Antoine Wright	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	0.00	3	0%	-0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Thabo Sefolosha	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.06	0.03	-0.03	11	62%	0.13	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Kyle Weaver	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.1,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.05	0.05	-0.00	13	64%	0.16	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Nenad Krstic	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.12	0.01	0.06	16	67%	0.11	2	-0.04	7	86%	0.01
Malik Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.00	-0.01	5	64%	0.06	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Damien Wilkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.01	-0.01	5	64%	0.05	1	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Robert Swift	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.00	-0.03	4	50%	0.02	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Russell Westbrook	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.15	0.06	-0.05	18	42%	0.10	6	-0.13	4	100%	0.02
Nick Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Earl Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	-0.02	2	0%	-0.04	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.8	28.2	16.4	26.5	2.5	32.2	131.7
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +37.2%

OKC +7.7%

OKC +10.4%

DAL -8.1%

OKC +2.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	OKC	NBA	DAL	OKC	NBA
this game	14.4	18.2	15.5	97.8	109.1	106.4
season	15.6	14.9		108.9	100.5
opponent	15.1	15.4		106.6	107.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	17.3	14.5	15.1	11.5	14.4
OKC	20.6	17.6	17.6	17.3	18.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Howard	32	30	0.05	-0.55	0.59	0.02	1	-10	11	15.5	13.8	1.78	19.6	17.4	2.22
Brandon Bass	36	35	0.03	-0.53	0.57	-0.35	13	-22	35	11.8	16.1	-4.30	17.4	18.7	-1.23
Gerald Green	25	25	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.33	11	-20	31	11.5	15.5	-4.05	17.3	18.5	-1.19
James Singleton	40	38	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	0.11	-8	-1	-7	14.7	14.1	0.65	17.9	18.4	-0.44
Jason Terry	71	71	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.26	2	-11	13	13.5	17.8	-4.24	17.5	21.0	-3.51
Jose Juan Barea	27	29	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	0.06	-9	0	-9	15.1	14.1	0.98	18.7	17.9	0.77
Antoine Wright	13	14	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	0.02	-11	2	-13	17.5	13.9	3.68	17.5	18.3	-0.80
Erick Dampier	25	24	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	0.03	-12	3	-15	17.7	13.1	4.63	19.3	17.7	1.54
Jason Kidd	78	76	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.26	-5	-4	-1	14.1	16.5	-2.35	18.0	19.3	-1.35
Devean George	21	19	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	0.05	-16	7	-23	17.3	13.5	3.79	19.9	17.7	2.27
Dirk Nowitzki	77	79	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.26	-11	2	-13	14.3	14.8	-0.51	18.3	17.2	1.06

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Thabo Sefolosha	76	75	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.06	17	-8	25	18.4	16.4	2.03	14.3	14.7	-0.38
Nenad Krstic	66	68	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.07	15	-6	21	18.4	17.4	1.08	14.4	14.3	0.14
Russell Westbrook	73	75	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.05	15	-6	21	18.0	18.8	-0.76	15.0	10.9	4.11
Nick Collison	58	60	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.07	14	-5	19	18.3	18.0	0.31	14.9	13.4	1.45
Kyle Weaver	67	68	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.29	1	8	-7	18.2	18.1	0.10	14.6	13.7	0.95
Earl Watson	24	23	0.11	0.39	-0.27	0.14	-1	10	-11	18.1	18.2	-0.06	13.4	14.7	-1.35
Malik Rose	34	32	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.18	-5	14	-19	17.4	18.6	-1.19	13.4	14.9	-1.54
Damien Wilkins	24	26	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.15	-5	14	-19	17.7	18.4	-0.69	13.0	15.0	-1.97
Robert Swift	18	18	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	0.16	-6	15	-21	18.2	18.2	0.07	14.4	14.4	0.06

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.47,0.51,0.56,0.5,0.55,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.56,0.49,0.56,0.64,0.58,0.65,0.77,0.8,0.85,0.93,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.97,0.97,0.93,0.89,0.88,0.93,0.9,0.96,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 102, ATL 107	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.52,0.58,0.56,0.6,0.67,0.63,0.61,0.64,0.54,0.51,0.46,0.56,0.63,0.74,0.82,0.87,0.87,0.88,0.84,0.88,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.96,0.92,0.96,0.85,1	94.9%
NYK 92, TOR 115	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.57,0.54,0.47,0.49,0.57,0.57,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.62,0.57,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.54,0.51,0.66,0.72,0.78,0.89,0.9,0.92,0.92,0.94,0.96,0.98,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.93,0.93,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.9%
MIL 90, ORL 114	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.5,0.49,0.56,0.55,0.56,0.61,0.66,0.58,0.52,0.46,0.51,0.56,0.67,0.71,0.74,0.83,0.78,0.92,0.89,0.9,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.8%