NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	83		Excitement	5.0 [831]		MVP	Joe Johnson (ATL): +10.1%
Atlanta Hawks	91		Comeback	1.1 [1005]		LVP	Mario Chalmers (MIA): -12.2%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Beasley	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.08	0.14	-0.00	0.05	16	68%	0.12	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
James Jones	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Quinn	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamario Moon	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	6	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Daequan Cook	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	15	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.03	0.00	17	58%	0.08	4	-0.11	2	100%	0.01
Udonis Haslem	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	10	50%	0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Yakhouba Diawara	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	4	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jermaine O'Neal	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.03	0.01	10	33%	-0.09	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
Mario Chalmers	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12	-0.12	-0.02	-0.02	7	37%	-0.03	5	-0.09	2	100%	0.01

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Joe Johnson	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.1	0.10	0.04	0.03	-0.03	17	57%	0.15	3	-0.05	8	100%	0.03
Ronald Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	-0.01	0.03	-0.04	8	57%	0.11	3	-0.04	5	80%	0.01
Al Horford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.02	-0.00	14	60%	0.14	3	-0.07	7	71%	0.00
Maurice Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	3	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Smith	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.01	0.02	13	54%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Marvin Williams	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.02	0.01	15	38%	-0.05	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.01
Mike Bibby	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.11	-0.01	-0.01	7	0%	-0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.1	2.5	26.4	15.6	24.2	2.4	37.6	137.8
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +21.6%

ATL +10.5%

ATL +17.6%

ATL +0.1%

ATL +0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	ATL	NBA	MIA	ATL	NBA
this game	14.5	17.1	15.5	91.2	100.0	106.4
season	16.0	15.8		105.9	106.7
opponent	16.1	15.7		106.0	105.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.0	15.4	14.3	12.5	14.5
ATL	15.3	18.9	17.0	17.5	17.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Jones	8	7	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.04	3	-11	14	17.9	14.2	3.65	17.0	17.1	-0.11
Chris Quinn	4	5	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.05	1	-9	10	17.7	14.4	3.35	22.6	16.8	5.82
Daequan Cook	57	57	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.29	7	-15	22	13.1	16.9	-3.77	18.0	15.5	2.51
Jamario Moon	38	39	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.03	-2	-6	4	14.8	14.4	0.41	18.8	15.8	3.01
Joel Anthony	15	15	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	0.05	-6	-2	-4	16.1	14.2	1.82	17.3	17.1	0.20
Michael Beasley	48	47	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.21	2	-10	12	12.8	16.5	-3.72	17.8	16.4	1.38
Jermaine O'Neal	55	56	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.20	-5	-3	-2	16.1	12.2	3.80	16.9	17.4	-0.44
Udonis Haslem	64	64	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.17	-7	-1	-6	14.2	15.3	-1.11	16.7	18.0	-1.28
Yakhouba Diawara	30	29	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	0.07	-16	8	-24	16.8	13.4	3.36	14.3	18.4	-4.09
Dwyane Wade	71	72	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.24	-8	0	-8	14.0	16.3	-2.31	17.2	16.7	0.46
Mario Chalmers	65	64	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.22	-9	1	-10	14.6	14.5	0.02	16.0	19.8	-3.86

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Al Horford	83	83	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.28	8	0	8	17.0	18.5	-1.54	14.8	12.0	2.80
Josh Smith	69	67	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.19	10	-2	12	16.9	17.6	-0.65	14.4	15.0	-0.61
Marvin Williams	77	75	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.25	7	1	6	17.0	17.7	-0.73	14.9	12.7	2.18
Joe Johnson	78	78	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.28	4	4	0	17.0	17.8	-0.87	14.0	17.8	-3.76
Ronald Murray	55	55	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.26	0	8	-8	18.0	15.7	2.32	13.5	16.1	-2.58
Mike Bibby	36	36	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.00	8	0	8	15.7	18.0	-2.32	16.1	13.5	2.58
Maurice Evans	27	29	0.15	0.35	-0.21	0.00	5	3	2	17.8	16.8	0.97	15.0	14.3	0.66
Zaza Pachulia	30	32	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	10	-12	17.8	16.7	1.10	14.2	14.7	-0.46

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.6,0.64,0.7,0.74,0.71,0.69,0.65,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.68,0.66,0.72,0.73,0.81,0.82,0.85,0.91,0.9,0.92,0.91,0.9,0.84,0.88,0.89,0.88,0.94,0.96,0.95,0.93,0.99,0.98,0.95,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 96, MIN 112	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.59,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.54,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.71,0.67,0.61,0.64,0.54,0.58,0.59,0.64,0.7,0.6,0.63,0.75,0.73,0.84,0.84,0.83,0.91,0.93,0.91,0.92,0.9,0.81,0.93,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.4%
GSW 105, CHI 119	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.54,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.58,0.66,0.68,0.64,0.73,0.73,0.69,0.67,0.68,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.58,0.56,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.75,0.78,0.84,0.91,0.88,0.9,0.85,0.92,0.92,0.97,0.94,0.9,0.91,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	95.2%
NJN 82, IND 93	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.63,0.7,0.69,0.69,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.58,0.6,0.67,0.65,0.56,0.58,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.6,0.63,0.73,0.76,0.76,0.82,0.85,0.88,0.87,0.87,0.88,0.9,0.91,0.93,0.93,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1	94.9%