NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	98		Excitement	5.4 [745]		MVP	Brandon Roy (POR): +15.2%
Portland Trail Blazers	108		Comeback	1.9 [761]		LVP	Josh Smith (ATL): -7.6%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Bibby	0.12	0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.13	-0.01	0.00	14	79%	0.21	4	-0.09	6	83%	0.01
Ronald Murray	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.11	0.02	0.05	8	77%	0.10	1	-0.02	6	67%	0.00
Marvin Williams	0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	0.00	0.02	13	58%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Joe Johnson	0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.04	0.01	-0.04	22	42%	0.03	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.02
Solomon Jones	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario West	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Maurice Evans	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	5	30%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Al Horford	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	3	40%	-0.02	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.04
Josh Smith	-0.08	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	12	44%	0.00	2	-0.08	1	100%	0.00

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brandon Roy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.12	0.03	-0.00	22	59%	0.15	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Travis Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.11	0.04	0.00	5	86%	0.15	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Rudy Fernandez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.08	0.06	0.04	11	70%	0.11	2	0.00	5	80%	-0.02
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.02	-0.01	20	57%	0.15	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Steve Blake	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.00	-0.02	-0.08	14	45%	0.10	1	-0.04	3	33%	-0.04
Joel Przybilla	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	6	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Ruffin	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerryd Bayless	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Channing Frye	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nicolas Batum	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	6	17%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sergio Rodriguez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.02	4	25%	-0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	1.7	25.9	14.8	23.2	2.4	36.5	127.8
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +35.0%

ATL -9.3%

POR +11.9%

POR +11.0%

POR +1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	POR	NBA	ATL	POR	NBA
this game	16.0	16.3	15.5	111.4	120.0	106.4
season	15.8	16.7		106.7	111.0
opponent	16.0	16.1		105.8	106.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	15.9	19.1	14.9	14.4	16.0
POR	16.1	15.1	17.8	16.2	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Solomon Jones	10	9	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	0.07	-3	-7	4	20.1	15.5	4.57	12.2	16.8	-4.54
Zaza Pachulia	26	28	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	0.04	-3	-7	4	17.2	15.5	1.68	17.9	15.6	2.35
Mario West	4	3	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.05	0	-10	10	4.5	16.6	-12.10	2.3	16.8	-14.46
Maurice Evans	26	25	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.09	-8	-2	-6	16.5	15.8	0.70	15.8	16.5	-0.76
Ronald Murray	42	44	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.16	-2	-8	6	15.5	16.6	-1.09	16.1	16.5	-0.39
Joe Johnson	76	77	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.30	0	-10	10	16.1	15.8	0.25	16.2	16.9	-0.72
Mike Bibby	74	77	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.16	-7	-3	-4	16.1	15.8	0.31	17.0	12.3	4.68
Marvin Williams	55	58	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.22	-7	-3	-4	15.0	17.8	-2.79	16.7	15.6	1.16
Josh Smith	74	75	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.19	-9	-1	-8	15.8	17.4	-1.64	15.8	18.8	-2.99
Al Horford	53	54	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.16	-11	1	-12	17.1	14.4	2.68	16.8	15.6	1.17

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
LaMarcus Aldridge	81	79	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.15	13	-3	16	16.5	14.7	1.83	16.3	14.0	2.28
Rudy Fernandez	53	51	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.17	12	-2	14	16.5	16.1	0.34	16.2	15.8	0.45
Travis Outlaw	58	58	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.15	10	0	10	16.1	16.7	-0.63	16.2	15.8	0.32
Brandon Roy	72	71	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.16	8	2	6	16.6	15.3	1.22	16.1	15.6	0.49
Channing Frye	24	22	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.08	5	5	0	17.4	15.9	1.45	17.6	15.5	2.06
Steve Blake	64	63	0.14	0.36	-0.23	0.14	0	10	-10	16.3	16.4	-0.10	15.6	17.2	-1.67
Sergio Rodriguez	21	20	0.09	0.41	-0.33	-0.03	4	6	-2	16.9	16.1	0.71	16.9	15.8	1.17
Nicolas Batum	34	32	0.07	0.43	-0.37	0.13	-2	12	-14	15.9	16.6	-0.64	15.2	16.5	-1.35
Joel Przybilla	37	37	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.10	-2	12	-14	16.4	16.2	0.16	15.6	16.4	-0.82
Jerryd Bayless	4	5	0.04	0.46	-0.41	-0.07	4	6	-2	10.0	16.6	-6.60	16.6	16.0	0.59
Michael Ruffin	2	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	12	-14	3.0	16.6	-13.61	5.5	16.3	-10.79

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.43,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.56,0.56,0.44,0.51,0.54,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.61,0.62,0.68,0.59,0.66,0.78,0.85,0.81,0.85,0.8,0.83,0.87,0.96,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 96, PHI 106	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.48,0.41,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.47,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.5,0.62,0.63,0.7,0.68,0.64,0.65,0.65,0.65,0.8,0.84,0.9,0.92,0.81,0.66,0.75,0.81,0.86,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.7%
LAL 90, SAC 96	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.46,0.5,0.46,0.46,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.48,0.5,0.6,0.6,0.53,0.6,0.59,0.46,0.54,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.69,0.67,0.64,0.71,0.65,0.71,0.69,0.77,0.72,0.85,0.85,0.85,0.86,0.85,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.98,0.98,1	94.3%
UTA 88, MEM 100	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.43,0.43,0.38,0.32,0.35,0.35,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.48,0.47,0.44,0.55,0.56,0.58,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.54,0.62,0.68,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.65,0.68,0.69,0.73,0.77,0.82,0.78,0.81,0.75,0.79,0.93,0.97,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.3%