NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	98		Excitement	4.4 [946]		MVP	Corey Maggette (GSW): +10.9%
Golden State Warriors	105		Comeback	1.1 [949]		LVP	Travis Outlaw (POR): -12.6%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brandon Roy	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.06	0.21	-0.02	0.14	21	74%	0.12	3	-0.07	8	75%	-0.01
Channing Frye	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rudy Fernandez	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	7	60%	0.02	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
LaMarcus Aldridge	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.01	0.02	13	67%	0.09	5	-0.11	4	100%	0.02
Joel Przybilla	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	-0.02	4	25%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Greg Oden	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	0.03	5	80%	0.02	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Jerryd Bayless	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.02	5	33%	-0.02	2	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Nicolas Batum	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Sergio Rodriguez	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.02	11	45%	0.00	4	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Travis Outlaw	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.16	-0.01	-0.04	14	27%	-0.08	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.01

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Corey Maggette	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.11	0.01	0.01	16	62%	0.12	1	-0.01	7	71%	-0.01
Ronny Turiaf	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.09	0.01	0.01	7	70%	0.10	0	0.00	6	100%	0.03
Monta Ellis	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.08	0.08	-0.02	0.06	-0.04	16	53%	0.14	4	-0.06	6	83%	0.00
Anthony Randolph	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	6	56%	0.01	1	-0.01	4	75%	-0.01
Stephen Jackson	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	14	56%	0.07	5	-0.09	8	100%	0.03
CJ Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kelenna Azubuike	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	6	37%	-0.02	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Jamal Crawford	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	0.02	9	46%	-0.03	1	-0.02	8	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	2.5	29.6	14.8	30.3	2.4	39.6	144.5
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +10.7%

GSW +16.2%

POR -0.9%

GSW +21.7%

GSW +2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	GSW	NBA	POR	GSW	NBA
this game	15.1	14.1	15.5	100.0	106.1	106.4
season	16.7	13.8		111.0	107.3
opponent	15.0	16.0		111.2	105.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	16.8	13.5	17.2	13.3	15.1
GSW	12.0	14.2	13.5	16.7	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Channing Frye	7	6	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.00	-1	-6	5	13.4	15.3	-1.85	10.3	14.3	-4.01
Greg Oden	36	39	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	-0.28	8	-15	23	14.4	15.6	-1.19	14.9	13.6	1.27
Rudy Fernandez	52	53	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.37	8	-15	23	13.9	16.6	-2.68	14.6	13.5	1.12
Sergio Rodriguez	62	62	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.37	5	-12	17	15.6	14.4	1.24	14.8	12.9	1.93
Jerryd Bayless	35	37	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	0.04	-10	3	-13	14.4	15.6	-1.16	12.9	14.8	-1.93
Nicolas Batum	31	29	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	0.14	-14	7	-21	15.6	14.9	0.73	13.4	14.4	-0.92
Joel Przybilla	36	36	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	0.05	-13	6	-19	18.2	13.4	4.82	14.1	14.1	-0.03
Travis Outlaw	75	75	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.14	-8	1	-9	14.4	17.6	-3.17	13.3	16.6	-3.33
LaMarcus Aldridge	71	71	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.30	-3	-4	1	15.8	13.5	2.29	14.6	12.7	1.93
Brandon Roy	85	87	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.24	-7	0	-7	15.0	16.1	-1.08	14.2	13.6	0.59

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Monta Ellis	92	91	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.17	13	-6	19	13.8	18.1	-4.35	15.2	14.1	1.08
Kelenna Azubuike	52	51	0.39	0.11	0.27	-0.05	15	-8	23	15.1	13.0	2.18	15.6	14.6	0.97
Stephen Jackson	90	90	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.35	1	6	-5	14.0	15.1	-1.11	15.1	15.9	-0.80
Jamal Crawford	81	80	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.29	2	5	-3	13.5	16.8	-3.34	15.0	15.8	-0.85
Corey Maggette	70	70	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.35	-2	9	-11	13.9	14.6	-0.64	14.6	16.5	-1.90
Anthony Randolph	32	29	0.29	0.21	0.07	-0.07	12	-5	17	11.6	15.3	-3.70	15.7	14.9	0.78
CJ Watson	22	22	0.15	0.35	-0.21	0.12	1	6	-5	16.2	13.5	2.68	14.6	15.3	-0.71
Ronny Turiaf	56	57	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.33	-7	14	-21	15.5	12.2	3.30	15.5	14.6	0.92

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.59,0.57,0.51,0.57,0.66,0.65,0.7,0.76,0.75,0.74,0.68,0.73,0.71,0.75,0.74,0.72,0.71,0.74,0.79,0.77,0.75,0.8,0.79,0.82,0.85,0.87,0.79,0.82,0.88,0.87,0.87,0.89,0.95,0.98,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.95,0.93,0.94,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 87, HOU 109	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.53,0.53,0.5,0.57,0.67,0.66,0.65,0.68,0.62,0.68,0.74,0.78,0.71,0.69,0.76,0.72,0.73,0.76,0.78,0.76,0.82,0.8,0.79,0.86,0.87,0.83,0.86,0.79,0.88,0.92,0.88,0.92,0.93,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.0%
WAS 75, LAC 96	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.59,0.63,0.63,0.63,0.66,0.74,0.76,0.78,0.7,0.74,0.78,0.73,0.71,0.76,0.75,0.73,0.73,0.82,0.87,0.84,0.88,0.81,0.85,0.87,0.83,0.79,0.79,0.88,0.89,0.85,0.9,0.96,0.95,0.95,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.0%
SEA 81, UTA 98	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.61,0.63,0.66,0.65,0.7,0.71,0.7,0.68,0.7,0.73,0.73,0.77,0.76,0.72,0.77,0.75,0.78,0.81,0.82,0.8,0.85,0.84,0.85,0.81,0.81,0.79,0.78,0.81,0.88,0.89,0.87,0.95,0.95,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.9%