NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	101		Excitement	4.8 [880]		MVP	Al Jefferson (MIN): +13.8%
Boston Celtics	109		Comeback	1.2 [1255]		LVP	Sebastian Telfair (MIN): -7.8%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Al Jefferson	0.14	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.22	-0.03	0.06	21	72%	0.14	1	-0.00	5	80%	0.00
Craig Smith	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.02	0.00	4	80%	0.05	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Kevin Love	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	4	50%	0.02	2	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Brian Cardinal	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Randy Foye	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.05	-0.01	0.08	17	51%	-0.02	1	-0.02	7	100%	0.04
Ryan Gomes	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	0.02	-0.05	0.04	13	61%	0.02	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Rodney Carney	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.00	4	30%	-0.02	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Sebastian Telfair	-0.08	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.01	0.02	12	40%	-0.04	2	-0.03	1	100%	0.00

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul Pierce	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.14	0.01	0.02	24	63%	0.23	4	-0.10	9	100%	0.04
Tony Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.06	0.03	-0.01	8	58%	0.10	0	0.00	8	75%	-0.00
Ray Allen	0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	0.01	0.02	15	63%	0.10	3	-0.05	5	100%	0.01
Kendrick Perkins	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.00	0.00	6	67%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Eddie House	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.00	5	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Glen Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	0.00	12	44%	0.01	1	-0.01	3	67%	-0.01
Leon Powe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	7	39%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.04
Patrick O'Bryant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rajon Rondo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	6	38%	-0.02	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.6	2.7	32.4	15.8	27.2	2.6	31.0	137.4
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +31.6%

BOS +2.5%

BOS +5.6%

BOS +8.5%

BOS +1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	BOS	NBA	MIN	BOS	NBA
this game	15.6	15.0	15.5	107.4	116.0	106.4
season	15.8	15.8		104.3	108.3
opponent	15.6	15.1		101.7	109.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	16.1	14.6	15.8	16.3	15.6
BOS	15.9	12.0	15.5	17.2	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Craig Smith	20	21	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	0.04	-2	-6	4	16.1	15.5	0.64	17.1	14.4	2.71
Brian Cardinal	10	9	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.07	-6	-2	-4	11.7	16.1	-4.42	11.0	15.4	-4.41
Rodney Carney	29	28	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.07	-5	-3	-2	16.0	15.5	0.51	15.5	14.8	0.73
Ryan Gomes	77	76	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.31	2	-10	12	16.0	14.2	1.73	15.0	14.9	0.06
Sebastian Telfair	81	81	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.26	0	-8	8	15.3	17.8	-2.46	14.6	17.4	-2.78
Randy Foye	67	70	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.25	-2	-6	4	15.9	15.0	0.96	15.8	12.6	3.18
Mike Miller	55	52	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.23	-4	-4	0	15.9	15.3	0.63	15.0	15.0	0.07
Kevin Love	53	53	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.08	-14	6	-20	15.2	16.2	-1.01	13.5	17.0	-3.52
Al Jefferson	78	80	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.24	-9	1	-10	15.8	14.8	1.01	15.4	12.8	2.59

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Allen	38	40	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.08	12	-4	16	13.8	15.8	-1.97	14.8	16.3	-1.52
Leon Powe	38	41	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.14	9	-1	10	13.9	15.7	-1.75	15.4	15.8	-0.42
Kendrick Perkins	67	64	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.24	2	6	-4	16.0	12.4	3.57	16.1	14.7	1.39
Rajon Rondo	67	66	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.21	3	5	-2	14.9	15.3	-0.38	16.1	14.5	1.64
Eddie House	30	31	0.29	0.21	0.08	-0.00	10	-2	12	14.4	15.3	-0.87	14.7	16.1	-1.40
Paul Pierce	81	81	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.24	1	7	-6	14.6	17.5	-2.96	15.6	16.1	-0.50
Ray Allen	67	65	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.20	2	6	-4	16.3	11.7	4.61	16.0	14.9	1.14
Patrick O'Bryant	11	11	0.15	0.35	-0.21	-0.09	8	0	8	11.3	15.5	-4.21	11.4	16.2	-4.85
Glen Davis	71	71	0.11	0.39	-0.27	0.32	-7	15	-22	15.4	13.9	1.48	16.3	13.8	2.47

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.67,0.75,0.76,0.8,0.86,0.84,0.82,0.85,0.92,0.93,0.93,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.93,0.87,0.85,0.76,0.82,0.7,0.87,0.95,0.92,0.9,0.89,0.88,0.92,0.89,0.83,0.9,0.93,0.97,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 75, HOU 85	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.59,0.57,0.57,0.47,0.55,0.55,0.65,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.73,0.7,0.78,0.75,0.8,0.86,0.9,0.94,0.98,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.96,0.89,0.89,0.8,0.8,0.79,0.85,0.9,0.91,0.92,0.85,0.92,0.94,0.9,0.93,0.95,0.99,0.99,1	94.6%
NYK 106, CHA 114	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.55,0.64,0.71,0.73,0.8,0.84,0.81,0.85,0.84,0.85,0.86,0.84,0.88,0.91,0.92,0.93,0.9,0.94,0.83,0.84,0.88,0.9,0.88,0.94,0.91,0.92,0.93,0.97,0.98,0.92,0.87,0.89,0.95,0.97,0.98,1	94.5%
DEN 93, PHX 102	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.59,0.66,0.68,0.74,0.77,0.75,0.83,0.78,0.84,0.82,0.84,0.82,0.78,0.84,0.88,0.88,0.92,0.91,0.92,0.89,0.85,0.78,0.82,0.81,0.85,0.92,0.95,0.94,0.96,0.93,0.99,0.99,0.95,0.93,0.99,1,1,1	94.3%