NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	105		Excitement	6.6 [482]		MVP	Jerryd Bayless (POR): +30.8%
New Jersey Nets	99		Comeback	5.7 [246]		LVP	Sergio Rodriguez (POR): -8.5%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jerryd Bayless	0.31	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.2,0.2,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31	0.18	0.13	0.00	9	79%	0.37	1	-0.06	11	100%	0.06
Brandon Roy	0.17	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.14	0.05	0.02	16	60%	0.17	0	0.00	16	81%	0.04
Travis Outlaw	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.13,-0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12	0.02	0.10	0.00	9	59%	0.19	2	-0.07	4	50%	-0.04
LaMarcus Aldridge	0.12	0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.11,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12	-0.01	0.12	-0.00	19	53%	0.19	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Rudy Fernandez	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.03	0.05	-0.00	5	60%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Przybilla	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	4	40%	0.01	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Greg Oden	-0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.01	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Channing Frye	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nicolas Batum	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sergio Rodriguez	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	6	33%	-0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

New Jersey Nets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Devin Harris	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.03,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.13	0.13	0.04	0.07	-0.02	18	57%	0.23	3	-0.10	4	50%	-0.01
Bobby Simmons	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.11	0.01	-0.00	8	78%	0.12	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Brook Lopez	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.11	0.01	0.02	10	74%	0.16	1	-0.06	3	100%	0.01
Keyon Dooling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.03	-0.02	9	61%	0.13	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Josh Boone	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	1	75%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Eduardo Najera	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	75%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Ryan Anderson	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	0.01	7	57%	0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Chris Douglas-Roberts	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vince Carter	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	14	41%	-0.05	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Jarvis Hayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.04	0.00	7	50%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.4	1.8	27.8	14.8	24.9	2.0	30.3	129.9
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +13.2%

POR +16.8%

POR +14.4%

POR +7.8%

NJN -2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	NJN	NBA	POR	NJN	NBA
this game	16.9	16.0	15.5	119.3	113.8	106.4
season	16.7	16.0		111.0	106.5
opponent	15.5	16.0		108.9	105.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	16.9	17.7	17.4	15.7	16.9
NJN	15.8	15.0	16.9	16.3	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rudy Fernandez	43	43	0.82	-0.32	1.14	0.38	15	-9	24	16.4	17.5	-1.09	15.9	16.0	-0.14
Travis Outlaw	53	54	0.75	-0.25	0.99	0.34	14	-8	22	15.8	18.7	-2.91	16.0	16.0	0.01
Jerryd Bayless	48	47	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.23	5	1	4	15.5	18.6	-3.10	16.2	15.7	0.42
Joel Przybilla	42	40	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.03	11	-5	16	16.5	17.3	-0.87	16.2	15.8	0.46
Brandon Roy	73	71	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.27	-1	7	-8	17.0	16.7	0.24	16.2	14.8	1.43
Sergio Rodriguez	40	40	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.09	1	5	-4	18.6	15.5	3.10	15.7	16.2	-0.42
Channing Frye	9	9	0.10	0.40	-0.31	-0.02	4	2	2	16.6	17.0	-0.42	15.6	16.0	-0.47
LaMarcus Aldridge	66	66	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.33	-8	14	-22	17.6	15.0	2.58	15.4	17.9	-2.54
Nicolas Batum	43	42	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	-0.03	-2	8	-10	17.1	16.7	0.41	16.2	15.8	0.41
Greg Oden	23	23	-0.27	0.77	-1.04	-0.00	-9	15	-24	19.3	16.1	3.15	16.4	15.8	0.56

New Jersey Nets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ryan Anderson	40	41	0.31	-0.81	1.13	0.05	9	-15	24	16.1	15.9	0.27	18.0	16.0	2.05
Chris Douglas-Roberts	8	7	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.01	-2	-4	2	12.9	16.3	-3.42	19.3	16.7	2.56
Bobby Simmons	49	52	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.19	4	-10	14	14.8	17.4	-2.61	17.3	16.4	0.92
Josh Boone	23	24	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.01	-5	-1	-4	16.0	16.0	0.09	16.4	17.1	-0.71
Brook Lopez	59	58	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.22	-1	-5	4	16.6	14.7	1.86	17.1	16.6	0.50
Vince Carter	70	73	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.30	1	-7	8	16.1	15.6	0.41	17.0	16.7	0.24
Devin Harris	71	71	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.27	-2	-4	2	16.0	15.8	0.20	17.0	16.5	0.50
Eduardo Najera	27	27	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.17	-6	0	-6	14.6	16.6	-2.06	16.7	17.0	-0.38
Jarvis Hayes	46	45	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.13	-13	7	-20	17.4	14.4	2.95	15.8	18.1	-2.32
Keyon Dooling	42	42	-0.83	0.33	-1.16	-0.39	-15	9	-24	16.1	15.9	0.18	16.2	17.6	-1.37

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.46,0.46,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.51,0.51,0.42,0.46,0.41,0.44,0.48,0.49,0.58,0.59,0.58,0.58,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.76,0.82,0.83,0.79,0.77,0.81,0.68,0.62,0.52,0.43,0.48,0.42,0.31,0.2,0.33,0.25,0.15,0.06,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 98, BOS 90	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.47,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.45,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.45,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.58,0.66,0.78,0.76,0.76,0.71,0.74,0.71,0.73,0.81,0.68,0.62,0.57,0.44,0.38,0.3,0.31,0.24,0.34,0.15,0.16,0.03,0.01,0	94.0%
DET 89, SAS 77	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.53,0.49,0.4,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.51,0.59,0.64,0.63,0.74,0.72,0.7,0.64,0.58,0.71,0.75,0.72,0.82,0.67,0.68,0.58,0.66,0.57,0.52,0.42,0.26,0.24,0.22,0.1,0.01,0.01,0,0	92.4%
CHA 109, DAL 101	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.47,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.56,0.5,0.58,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.41,0.39,0.46,0.41,0.51,0.58,0.72,0.75,0.75,0.79,0.74,0.59,0.66,0.82,0.77,0.79,0.62,0.62,0.48,0.53,0.53,0.36,0.24,0.17,0.14,0.04,0.01,0.04,0	92.3%