NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	102		Excitement	7.5 [338]		MVP	Derrick Rose (CHI): +48.7%
Toronto Raptors	98		Comeback	2.5 [276]		LVP	Joey Graham (TOR): -8.8%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derrick Rose	0.49	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.07,0.07,0.17,0.17,0.23,0.28,0.24,0.24,0.31,0.31,0.49,0.49	0.14	0.33	-0.02	18	68%	0.52	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Thabo Sefolosha	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.07	0.08	-0.00	6	75%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andres Nocioni	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.21,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15	0.04	0.10	-0.01	13	53%	0.17	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Joakim Noah	0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.06	-0.00	0.02	5	80%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyrus Thomas	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	8	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luol Deng	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01	0.00	0.01	0.02	11	57%	0.06	3	-0.07	6	100%	0.03
Ben Gordon	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.11	0.08	-0.01	13	38%	0.07	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,-0.03	0.05	-0.07	0.01	6	75%	0.13	2	-0.16	4	75%	0.01
Aaron Gray	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andrea Bargnani	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.2,0.24,0.24,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27	0.27	0.19	0.09	0.00	14	82%	0.43	3	-0.15	10	90%	0.05
Anthony Parker	0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.17	0.17	0.05	0.13	0.01	11	68%	0.21	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kapono	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.03	0.05	-0.00	6	58%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Roko Leni Ukic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	7	29%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kris Humphries	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jake Voskuhl	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Will Solomon	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	6	42%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,-0.05	-0.05	0.08	-0.12	0.01	18	53%	-0.05	0	0.00	11	82%	0.02
Jamario Moon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.00	-0.05	0.01	9	48%	-0.03	1	-0.03	5	100%	0.03
Joey Graham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	3.3	32.4	17.7	26.8	1.8	38.1	144.2
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +64.0%

TOR -11.3%

CHI +1.8%

TOR -8.0%

CHI +3.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	TOR	NBA	CHI	TOR	NBA
this game	16.6	15.8	15.5	114.6	110.1	106.4
season	14.8	15.1		106.3	105.0
opponent	15.6	15.7		108.0	107.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	14.7	22.4	14.3	15.8	16.6
TOR	16.7	13.0	15.7	17.7	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kirk Hinrich	63	62	0.68	-0.18	0.85	0.38	10	-6	16	15.5	19.2	-3.68	15.5	16.3	-0.80
Luol Deng	74	73	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.33	7	-3	10	16.7	15.8	0.94	15.6	16.6	-0.96
Thabo Sefolosha	25	24	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.27	3	1	2	15.5	17.0	-1.48	17.4	15.2	2.19
Tyrus Thomas	41	39	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.14	7	-3	10	17.7	15.7	1.99	14.8	16.5	-1.70
Joakim Noah	33	32	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.09	8	-4	12	15.5	17.2	-1.65	16.0	15.6	0.35
Derrick Rose	68	68	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.31	-3	7	-10	18.0	12.1	5.88	15.9	15.5	0.33
Andres Nocioni	55	58	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.22	-1	5	-6	16.2	17.2	-0.96	16.2	15.1	1.09
Ben Gordon	68	70	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	0.13	-6	10	-16	17.1	15.0	2.01	15.9	15.4	0.52
Aaron Gray	18	19	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.04	-5	9	-14	14.7	17.1	-2.33	14.9	16.0	-1.05

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jake Voskuhl	6	5	0.09	-0.59	0.68	-0.03	4	-8	12	7.7	16.4	-8.69	18.2	16.5	1.71
Jamario Moon	66	63	0.08	-0.58	0.67	-0.03	4	-8	12	15.2	17.4	-2.24	17.2	15.0	2.24
Kris Humphries	13	11	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	-0.02	-1	-3	2	16.1	15.7	0.35	13.2	17.1	-3.88
Roko Leni Ukic	44	43	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.21	2	-6	8	15.3	16.2	-0.86	16.5	16.7	-0.14
Will Solomon	47	47	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.08	-4	0	-4	16.0	15.5	0.43	16.6	16.5	0.07
Anthony Parker	70	71	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.28	0	-4	4	15.4	17.3	-1.89	17.6	12.6	4.98
Andrea Bargnani	74	76	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.39	2	-6	8	15.4	17.8	-2.44	16.0	20.2	-4.27
Joey Graham	23	23	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.10	-11	7	-18	17.3	15.3	2.00	13.5	17.7	-4.13
Chris Bosh	64	66	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.32	-6	2	-8	16.5	13.8	2.75	17.5	14.0	3.48
Jason Kapono	38	40	-0.75	0.25	-1.00	-0.46	-10	6	-16	17.6	14.5	3.10	16.0	17.1	-1.06

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.39,0.32,0.28,0.28,0.29,0.32,0.26,0.34,0.27,0.25,0.26,0.28,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.41,0.46,0.5,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.58,0.55,0.65,0.59,0.66,0.66,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.43,0.3,0.24,0.27,0.36,0.4,0.39,0.39,0.15,0.23,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 100, CHH 93	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.39,0.37,0.32,0.36,0.35,0.36,0.36,0.38,0.37,0.39,0.39,0.44,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.54,0.6,0.59,0.49,0.55,0.64,0.55,0.68,0.56,0.52,0.6,0.52,0.5,0.34,0.25,0.13,0.2,0.31,0.45,0.33,0.45,0.21,0.1,0.1,0	92.1%
CHI 114, GSW 108	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.45,0.41,0.38,0.43,0.41,0.41,0.38,0.29,0.34,0.32,0.24,0.24,0.29,0.25,0.22,0.24,0.29,0.27,0.26,0.36,0.36,0.46,0.32,0.4,0.45,0.58,0.67,0.65,0.55,0.61,0.66,0.56,0.4,0.5,0.43,0.3,0.24,0.27,0.31,0.29,0.17,0.25,0.21,0.32,0.05,0	92.0%
ORL 91, DET 86	0.5,0.51,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.38,0.32,0.35,0.25,0.26,0.28,0.26,0.29,0.34,0.36,0.31,0.25,0.23,0.22,0.21,0.27,0.29,0.26,0.28,0.3,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.52,0.6,0.68,0.68,0.69,0.63,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.48,0.38,0.47,0.42,0.41,0.24,0.28,0.39,0.21,0.23,0.1,0	91.5%