NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	83		Excitement	7.7 [295]		MVP	Russell Westbrook (OKC): +10.5%
Oklahoma City Thunder	91		Comeback	1.2 [365]		LVP	Jeff Green (OKC): -18.6%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Kapono	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06	-0.04	0.08	-0.02	10	40%	0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jamario Moon	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	-0.01	-0.02	8	44%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Roko Leni Ukic	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jermaine O'Neal	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	5	45%	0.01	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Andrea Bargnani	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.06	0.01	-0.02	16	44%	0.03	3	-0.06	4	75%	0.00
Joey Graham	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.00	-0.03	-0.00	8	50%	0.01	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Anthony Parker	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.01	10	36%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kris Humphries	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,0,-0.05,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11	-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	18	44%	-0.04	3	-0.07	14	71%	-0.07
Jose Calderon	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.05	-0.06	0.02	11	36%	-0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Russell Westbrook	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1	0.10	-0.00	0.12	0.01	12	61%	0.21	5	-0.11	7	71%	-0.01
Nick Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.03	0.00	5	100%	0.14	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Joe Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.00	0.04	-0.01	7	44%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Damien Wilkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.01	-0.03	6	33%	-0.01	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Durant	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.01,0.04,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.03	0.01	24	46%	0.10	3	-0.11	8	75%	0.00
Desmond Mason	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.03	0.00	6	38%	-0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Chris Wilcox	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.08	0.02	-0.01	8	33%	0.01	2	-0.06	5	20%	-0.06
Earl Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Green	0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.21,-0.19	-0.19	-0.03	-0.14	0.01	12	46%	-0.08	2	-0.11	4	50%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	2.5	28.3	15.3	24.6	2.7	32.0	131.8
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +46.3%

TOR -3.0%

OKC +29.8%

TOR -23.0%

TOR -0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	OKC	NBA	TOR	OKC	NBA
this game	14.6	15.1	15.5	86.5	92.9	106.4
season	15.1	14.9		105.0	100.5
opponent	15.1	15.6		106.6	108.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	16.8	13.7	13.0	15.0	14.6
OKC	13.2	15.1	14.7	17.8	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joey Graham	40	41	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.21	6	-14	20	14.5	14.6	-0.17	16.4	14.2	2.20
Andrea Bargnani	58	60	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.41	11	-19	30	14.1	15.3	-1.23	15.7	14.2	1.56
Kris Humphries	14	14	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.02	-4	-4	0	12.6	14.9	-2.34	15.9	15.0	0.87
Jason Kapono	54	57	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.07	-3	-5	2	15.4	13.5	1.91	14.7	15.7	-0.94
Roko Leni Ukic	16	17	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.06	-5	-3	-2	14.4	14.6	-0.16	12.9	15.6	-2.63
Jamario Moon	46	46	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	0.09	-10	2	-12	14.5	14.6	-0.14	14.5	15.6	-1.07
Jose Calderon	80	81	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.21	-3	-5	2	14.6	14.4	0.16	15.6	12.9	2.63
Jermaine O'Neal	31	31	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	0.11	-14	6	-20	15.8	14.0	1.77	12.7	16.2	-3.51
Anthony Parker	63	63	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.31	-2	-6	4	14.2	15.3	-1.07	15.9	13.7	2.17
Chris Bosh	78	80	-0.72	0.22	-0.94	-0.25	-16	8	-24	14.6	14.3	0.29	14.8	16.5	-1.70

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Durant	88	87	0.72	-0.22	0.94	0.19	18	-10	28	14.7	18.4	-3.66	14.5	15.7	-1.21
Nick Collison	54	55	0.66	-0.16	0.81	0.10	19	-11	30	14.1	16.3	-2.19	14.9	14.1	0.83
Russell Westbrook	65	64	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.08	17	-9	26	14.9	15.5	-0.65	14.7	14.2	0.53
Desmond Mason	77	74	0.56	-0.06	0.63	0.27	10	-2	12	14.9	16.0	-1.07	14.6	14.5	0.09
Jeff Green	57	58	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.05	10	-2	12	15.0	15.2	-0.18	15.4	13.2	2.21
Joe Smith	53	51	-0.06	0.56	-0.63	0.17	-8	16	-24	16.1	13.9	2.22	14.1	15.1	-0.97
Earl Watson	33	32	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.19	-9	17	-26	15.5	14.9	0.65	14.2	14.7	-0.53
Damien Wilkins	24	23	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.11	-7	15	-22	15.6	14.9	0.68	14.1	14.7	-0.64
Chris Wilcox	39	36	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.16	-10	18	-28	16.2	14.4	1.77	13.8	15.0	-1.23

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.54,0.61,0.66,0.64,0.7,0.72,0.73,0.68,0.64,0.68,0.68,0.64,0.69,0.67,0.69,0.61,0.72,0.69,0.74,0.75,0.82,0.78,0.81,0.75,0.78,0.78,0.79,0.71,0.71,0.76,0.73,0.74,0.75,0.85,0.81,0.7,0.67,0.68,0.74,0.53,0.67,0.45,0.72,0.77,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 89, GSW 98	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.59,0.62,0.59,0.66,0.68,0.72,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.7,0.69,0.66,0.69,0.73,0.73,0.75,0.75,0.77,0.77,0.78,0.75,0.79,0.74,0.72,0.81,0.76,0.79,0.8,0.82,0.77,0.81,0.79,0.74,0.78,0.79,0.72,0.81,0.79,0.71,0.67,0.69,0.84,0.98,1,1	92.6%
UTA 97, HOU 104	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.61,0.62,0.67,0.68,0.65,0.64,0.66,0.72,0.76,0.74,0.75,0.71,0.78,0.74,0.75,0.73,0.74,0.69,0.73,0.78,0.79,0.8,0.69,0.7,0.64,0.68,0.71,0.65,0.66,0.7,0.71,0.66,0.66,0.75,0.72,0.77,0.64,0.65,0.61,0.53,0.77,0.9,0.99,1	92.6%
MIL 93, DAL 103	0.5,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.67,0.67,0.62,0.71,0.62,0.7,0.68,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.63,0.59,0.56,0.64,0.65,0.73,0.78,0.75,0.77,0.77,0.78,0.78,0.84,0.86,0.83,0.88,0.82,0.81,0.85,0.78,0.9,0.82,0.8,0.63,0.59,0.53,0.6,0.62,0.78,0.95,0.96,1	92.1%