NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Utah Jazz	97		Excitement	6.3 [547]		MVP	Cuttino Mobley (HOU): +16.2%
Houston Rockets	104		Comeback	1.1 [727]		LVP	Scott Padgett (UTA): -12.9%

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rusty LaRue	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.04	0.00	8	56%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Karl Malone	0.06	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.07,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.02	-0.00	26	54%	0.08	2	-0.02	5	100%	0.05
Greg Ostertag	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.00	5	73%	0.05	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Quincy Lewis	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bryon Russell	-0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	13	38%	-0.01	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jarron Collins	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	4	50%	-0.01	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
John Stockton	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.02	0.02	14	45%	-0.02	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.02
DeShawn Stevenson	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	9	33%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrei Kirilenko	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.05	-0.07	0.00	9	35%	-0.11	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Scott Padgett	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	9	33%	-0.09	1	-0.04	3	33%	-0.03

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Cuttino Mobley	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.23,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.18	0.01	0.03	16	81%	0.23	2	-0.07	5	100%	0.02
Moochie Norris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.02	0.10	-0.01	4	87%	0.19	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Steve Francis	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,0,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06	0.06	-0.03	0.07	-0.02	14	66%	0.21	5	-0.14	22	82%	0.02
Eddie Griffin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	8	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Collier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	1	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Oscar Torres	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terence Morris	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	2	87%	0.05	3	-0.08	4	75%	0.00
Kenny Thomas	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.08	-0.03	-0.01	6	65%	0.02	5	-0.13	8	37%	-0.07

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.1	1.7	26.5	16.0	28.2	1.7	32.3	129.5
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +85.3%

HOU +6.9%

UTA -15.1%

UTA -36.4%

HOU +9.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	UTA	HOU	NBA	UTA	HOU	NBA
this game	17.4	15.5	15.6	111.5	118.2	102.3
season	16.1	16.8		102.9	100.9
opponent	15.2	15.1		106.4	101.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
UTA	19.6	17.6	15.0	17.4	17.4
HOU	14.0	15.9	18.5	14.0	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Greg Ostertag	20	19	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.10	3	-10	13	17.6	17.3	0.35	16.3	15.3	0.92
Quincy Lewis	6	5	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	-0.04	0	-7	7	15.7	17.5	-1.84	17.8	15.4	2.39
Rusty LaRue	30	30	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.12	1	-8	9	17.3	17.4	-0.07	15.2	15.7	-0.52
Jarron Collins	31	32	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.08	-9	2	-11	17.5	17.3	0.21	16.2	15.2	1.01
DeShawn Stevenson	40	41	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.23	-1	-6	5	18.7	16.3	2.44	15.8	15.4	0.39
Bryon Russell	54	56	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.09	-6	-1	-5	17.7	16.9	0.76	15.8	15.2	0.61
Scott Padgett	47	48	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.30	-1	-6	5	18.3	16.3	1.95	14.9	16.3	-1.34
John Stockton	57	58	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.17	-8	1	-9	17.4	17.3	0.07	15.7	15.2	0.52
Andrei Kirilenko	74	74	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.22	-7	0	-7	16.6	21.8	-5.25	15.1	17.9	-2.75
Karl Malone	76	77	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.26	-7	0	-7	16.7	22.1	-5.39	15.5	16.0	-0.52

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Terence Morris	65	64	0.63	-0.13	0.75	0.22	14	-7	21	14.9	17.3	-2.44	18.3	14.8	3.53
Cuttino Mobley	84	84	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.29	8	-1	9	15.6	14.5	1.10	17.1	25.7	-8.58
Steve Francis	83	82	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.24	9	-2	11	15.3	19.4	-4.09	17.1	21.6	-4.48
Eddie Griffin	79	79	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.32	5	2	3	15.8	13.0	2.84	16.8	23.2	-6.47
Moochie Norris	34	33	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.25	0	7	-7	14.0	16.5	-2.47	17.7	17.2	0.56
Kenny Thomas	47	47	0.15	0.35	-0.21	-0.06	7	0	7	15.6	15.5	0.15	17.0	17.8	-0.73
Oscar Torres	17	15	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.09	-1	8	-9	18.0	15.0	3.04	19.2	17.0	2.20
Jason Collier	15	16	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.12	-3	10	-13	16.7	15.3	1.35	19.7	16.8	2.90

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.61,0.62,0.67,0.68,0.65,0.64,0.66,0.72,0.76,0.74,0.75,0.71,0.78,0.74,0.75,0.73,0.74,0.69,0.73,0.78,0.79,0.8,0.69,0.7,0.64,0.68,0.71,0.65,0.66,0.7,0.71,0.66,0.66,0.75,0.72,0.77,0.64,0.65,0.61,0.53,0.77,0.9,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 92, IND 97	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.57,0.6,0.57,0.61,0.63,0.62,0.68,0.73,0.72,0.74,0.7,0.71,0.73,0.67,0.68,0.71,0.69,0.74,0.75,0.7,0.7,0.71,0.69,0.69,0.64,0.73,0.65,0.68,0.75,0.8,0.78,0.71,0.62,0.62,0.57,0.71,0.68,0.53,0.59,0.72,0.62,0.85,0.84,0.83,1	93.0%
MIL 89, GSW 98	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.59,0.62,0.59,0.66,0.68,0.72,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.7,0.69,0.66,0.69,0.73,0.73,0.75,0.75,0.77,0.77,0.78,0.75,0.79,0.74,0.72,0.81,0.76,0.79,0.8,0.82,0.77,0.81,0.79,0.74,0.78,0.79,0.72,0.81,0.79,0.71,0.67,0.69,0.84,0.98,1,1	93.0%
WAS 105, MIL 110	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.59,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.65,0.67,0.71,0.76,0.81,0.78,0.73,0.75,0.62,0.69,0.7,0.68,0.61,0.64,0.67,0.64,0.73,0.74,0.77,0.75,0.73,0.68,0.65,0.74,0.76,0.76,0.71,0.64,0.54,0.7,0.82,0.76,0.65,0.59,0.69,0.4,0.39,0.79,0.78,0.93,1	93.0%