NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	98		Excitement	2.7 [1226]		MVP	Michael Redd (MIL): +13.1%
Miami Heat	83		Comeback	1.0 [468]		LVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): -10.8%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Redd	0.13	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.14,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.14	0.00	0.01	12	68%	0.13	0	0.00	7	100%	0.02
Andrew Bogut	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.15	0.00	0.04	12	77%	0.10	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.01
Charlie Villanueva	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.02	-0.03	19	48%	0.07	2	-0.01	4	75%	0.01
Charlie Bell	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	7	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dan Gadzuric	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.02	3	67%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyronn Lue	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Alexander	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luc Mbah a Moute	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	5	40%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ramon Sessions	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	4	33%	-0.00	1	-0.01	4	100%	0.02
Richard Jefferson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	13	47%	-0.00	2	-0.02	4	100%	0.00
Luke Ridnour	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.07	-0.00	-0.03	5	40%	-0.00	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Daequan Cook	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.11	0.00	0.08	7	76%	0.03	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.00
Mario Chalmers	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.06	0.00	0.05	13	74%	0.08	5	-0.08	1	100%	0.00
Michael Beasley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	0.00	0.02	11	48%	0.01	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.01
Jamaal Magloire	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Banks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Marion	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.05	0.00	0.06	9	68%	0.02	2	-0.03	4	75%	-0.00
Joel Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Quinn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.01	4	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Yakhouba Diawara	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.02	5	20%	-0.04	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.12	-0.01	-0.01	16	39%	-0.03	4	-0.08	6	83%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	2.4	31.6	15.4	27.8	2.0	30.0	131.4
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +21.4%

MIL +7.2%

MIL +8.4%

MIL +12.5%

MIL +0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	MIA	NBA	MIL	MIA	NBA
this game	17.1	15.8	15.5	111.4	95.4	106.4
season	15.0	16.0		104.9	105.9
opponent	15.7	15.6		105.7	105.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	15.1	16.5	18.1	18.8	17.1
MIA	19.1	14.0	14.6	15.5	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andrew Bogut	72	72	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.13	8	7	1	17.5	15.4	2.17	16.0	14.7	1.32
Charlie Villanueva	57	56	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.16	6	9	-3	17.5	16.5	0.98	14.3	18.5	-4.18
Michael Redd	66	66	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.00	11	4	7	16.7	18.5	-1.74	16.5	13.4	3.13
Richard Jefferson	58	56	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.15	6	9	-3	17.8	15.9	1.94	16.5	14.4	2.13
Charlie Bell	39	40	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.08	6	9	-3	17.0	17.3	-0.27	14.2	17.1	-2.93
Luc Mbah a Moute	40	39	0.26	0.24	0.01	-0.10	12	3	9	16.7	17.5	-0.78	17.4	14.4	2.95
Ramon Sessions	34	35	0.25	0.25	0.01	-0.10	12	3	9	17.0	17.3	-0.29	14.3	16.7	-2.37
Luke Ridnour	54	52	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.16	3	12	-9	17.3	17.0	0.29	16.7	14.3	2.37
Dan Gadzuric	16	15	0.14	0.36	-0.22	-0.07	7	8	-1	15.4	17.5	-2.17	14.7	16.0	-1.32
Tyronn Lue	2	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.06	2	13	-11	15.5	17.2	-1.69	13.5	15.8	-2.31
Joe Alexander	2	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.06	2	13	-11	15.5	17.2	-1.69	13.5	15.8	-2.31

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marcus Banks	2	2	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	-13	11	13.5	15.8	-2.31	15.5	17.2	-1.69
Jamaal Magloire	6	6	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	0.03	-4	-11	7	15.0	15.8	-0.81	14.5	17.3	-2.84
Yakhouba Diawara	6	7	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.10	-7	-8	1	10.7	16.1	-5.47	17.1	17.1	-0.01
Chris Quinn	18	18	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.09	-8	-7	-1	15.6	15.8	-0.26	15.8	17.5	-1.72
Udonis Haslem	34	34	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.06	-10	-5	-5	18.9	13.8	5.08	15.7	18.0	-2.30
Daequan Cook	39	41	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.04	-7	-8	1	14.7	16.6	-1.93	17.3	17.0	0.23
Mario Chalmers	65	65	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.20	-2	-13	11	16.2	14.4	1.81	17.5	16.2	1.26
Michael Beasley	45	44	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.12	-5	-10	5	14.4	17.2	-2.77	16.7	17.5	-0.80
Joel Anthony	71	72	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.15	-6	-9	3	15.5	17.0	-1.52	17.8	14.2	3.62
Shawn Marion	75	76	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.10	-10	-5	-5	16.4	12.0	4.36	16.9	18.5	-1.57
Dwyane Wade	74	75	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.04	-14	-1	-13	15.6	16.9	-1.37	17.8	13.2	4.69

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.46,0.44,0.38,0.39,0.35,0.37,0.38,0.29,0.32,0.26,0.28,0.23,0.19,0.15,0.11,0.14,0.12,0.11,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.08,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 113, CHA 85	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.39,0.43,0.43,0.39,0.43,0.41,0.35,0.35,0.33,0.25,0.28,0.24,0.24,0.27,0.23,0.13,0.1,0.16,0.12,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.2%
HOU 135, LAC 103	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.38,0.36,0.37,0.37,0.4,0.34,0.25,0.22,0.28,0.2,0.19,0.13,0.07,0.12,0.09,0.07,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.09,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.0%
HOU 102, LAC 79	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.41,0.4,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.35,0.31,0.32,0.26,0.24,0.22,0.25,0.22,0.17,0.16,0.11,0.1,0.11,0.09,0.08,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.9%