NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	86		Excitement	4.5 [918]		MVP	O.J. Mayo (MEM): +19.8%
Memphis Grizzlies	102		Comeback	1.6 [520]		LVP	Shawn Marion (MIA): -11.3%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Joel Anthony	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.12	0.01	0.02	5	100%	0.11	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Mark Blount	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Beasley	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.02	0.01	17	53%	0.04	2	-0.06	4	75%	-0.01
Mario Chalmers	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0.02	8	44%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00
Yakhouba Diawara	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.03	6	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Daequan Cook	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	12	37%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Quinn	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	10	35%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Magloire	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	2	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.10	-0.00	-0.03	16	42%	0.01	4	-0.08	8	87%	0.03
Shawn Marion	-0.11	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.10	-0.03	-0.02	12	27%	-0.09	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
O.J. Mayo	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.18	0.04	0.02	17	67%	0.20	0	0.00	8	100%	0.03
Darko Milicic	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.07	0.02	-0.03	8	65%	0.13	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Darrell Arthur	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.02	-0.00	9	50%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Rudy Gay	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	0.00	0.01	13	62%	0.09	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Mike Conley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	-0.00	-0.03	9	52%	0.05	1	-0.01	5	80%	0.01
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	-0.00	3	62%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Greg Buckner	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Quinton Ross	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	4	62%	0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Marc Gasol	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	0.03	5	47%	-0.02	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.01
Hakim Warrick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	5	33%	-0.04	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.8	2.8	27.1	15.7	28.2	2.7	29.2	133.4
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MEM +52.5%

MEM +4.8%

MIA -21.3%

MEM +13.5%

MEM +0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	MEM	NBA	MIA	MEM	NBA
this game	16.4	16.7	15.5	97.7	118.6	106.4
season	16.0	16.1		105.9	101.7
opponent	15.3	15.7		107.6	105.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.9	16.7	19.4	13.0	16.4
MEM	16.6	16.8	12.7	21.1	16.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamaal Magloire	15	13	0.09	-0.59	0.67	-0.12	7	-23	30	15.4	16.7	-1.26	17.3	16.5	0.76
Chris Quinn	38	37	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.13	5	-21	26	15.7	17.0	-1.24	17.2	16.2	1.02
Mark Blount	6	5	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	-14	12	9.2	17.0	-7.81	24.4	16.2	8.21
Daequan Cook	51	49	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.08	-3	-13	10	16.0	17.1	-1.15	17.5	15.5	1.97
Michael Beasley	43	43	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.01	-6	-10	4	17.9	15.1	2.77	15.3	18.0	-2.63
Shawn Marion	57	55	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.00	-12	-4	-8	15.6	18.0	-2.40	17.7	14.8	2.90
Yakhouba Diawara	48	44	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.04	-14	-2	-12	15.9	17.1	-1.20	17.1	16.2	0.92
Mario Chalmers	63	62	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	0.04	-15	-1	-14	17.1	14.7	2.41	16.7	16.6	0.11
Dwyane Wade	57	59	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	0.06	-21	5	-26	16.8	15.7	1.13	15.4	19.4	-4.05
Joel Anthony	62	63	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.01	-19	3	-22	17.4	14.2	3.19	15.7	19.2	-3.43

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rudy Gay	56	60	0.64	-0.14	0.77	-0.04	23	-7	30	16.2	17.5	-1.23	15.8	17.7	-1.92
O.J. Mayo	72	73	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.01	16	0	16	16.3	18.4	-2.02	16.6	15.5	1.18
Kyle Lowry	34	35	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.03	13	3	10	15.5	17.4	-1.97	17.6	15.7	1.92
Darrell Arthur	28	30	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.02	11	5	6	15.7	17.1	-1.41	18.4	15.4	2.97
Darko Milicic	54	56	0.30	0.20	0.11	-0.02	11	5	6	16.6	16.8	-0.19	16.1	17.1	-0.97
Marc Gasol	42	41	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.04	6	10	-4	16.5	16.9	-0.41	17.2	15.8	1.45
Mike Conley	52	53	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.00	3	13	-10	17.4	15.5	1.97	15.7	17.6	-1.92
Quinton Ross	43	42	0.09	0.41	-0.33	0.03	2	14	-12	16.4	16.9	-0.49	17.1	15.8	1.29
Greg Buckner	11	10	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.01	-1	17	-18	17.8	16.5	1.32	16.5	16.4	0.06
Hakim Warrick	38	40	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	0.07	-4	20	-24	18.9	14.9	4.00	14.5	18.1	-3.56

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.56,0.57,0.53,0.58,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.52,0.44,0.41,0.39,0.49,0.59,0.5,0.54,0.63,0.67,0.7,0.73,0.79,0.75,0.78,0.85,0.88,0.91,0.96,0.97,0.94,0.99,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 85, LAC 111	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.5,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.42,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.57,0.69,0.76,0.71,0.71,0.85,0.79,0.82,0.88,0.87,0.92,0.93,0.94,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.0%
CHA 77, IND 101	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.46,0.42,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.61,0.65,0.7,0.79,0.77,0.82,0.83,0.81,0.75,0.87,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.8%
CHA 104, PHX 118	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.52,0.59,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.54,0.6,0.58,0.53,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.54,0.59,0.54,0.6,0.6,0.7,0.67,0.76,0.8,0.8,0.75,0.76,0.86,0.91,0.94,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.6%