NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	90		Excitement	5.3 [766]		MVP	Dan Gadzuric (MIL): +6.0%
Milwaukee Bucks	97		Comeback	1.4 [861]		LVP	Drew Gooden (CHI): -18.0%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luol Deng	0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.10	-0.03	0.03	14	70%	0.09	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Larry Hughes	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.08	-0.01	0.03	8	72%	0.06	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Ben Gordon	0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.1,-0.07,-0.05,-0.04,-0.01,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.02	0.01	18	51%	0.06	1	-0.03	7	86%	0.00
Joakim Noah	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyrus Thomas	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.00	6	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Andres Nocioni	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	1	33%	0.01	2	-0.07	1	100%	0.01
Aaron Gray	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.02	6	29%	-0.04	2	-0.04	2	0%	-0.01
Derrick Rose	-0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.13	-0.05	-0.06	0.03	16	50%	-0.01	5	-0.12	4	100%	0.01
Drew Gooden	-0.18	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.02	-0.01	11	9%	-0.14	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dan Gadzuric	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.08	0.01	0.03	5	73%	0.06	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.02
Michael Redd	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	-0.00	-0.02	11	59%	0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Richard Jefferson	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04	0.04	-0.02	0.01	-0.04	13	57%	0.15	5	-0.11	11	73%	-0.02
Luc Mbah a Moute	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.01	4	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luke Ridnour	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.03	0.04	-0.02	13	43%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Malik Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	5	60%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Villanueva	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.02	-0.02	21	52%	0.08	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Andrew Bogut	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	6	38%	-0.01	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Ramon Sessions	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.02	-0.00	5	20%	-0.04	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	20.5	1.8	32.0	15.4	24.4	2.4	30.6	127.0
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +35.9%

MIL +1.2%

MIL +9.4%

MIL +5.2%

CHI -1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	MIL	NBA	CHI	MIL	NBA
this game	15.3	15.3	15.5	96.8	102.1	106.4
season	14.8	15.0		106.3	104.9
opponent	15.6	15.7		105.6	107.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	15.3	16.0	16.5	13.4	15.3
MIL	16.0	13.4	14.2	17.9	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Aaron Gray	38	39	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.30	9	-16	25	15.9	14.9	1.03	14.8	15.7	-0.86
Luol Deng	74	77	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.23	5	-12	17	14.8	17.2	-2.32	16.1	12.1	3.97
Derrick Rose	82	86	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.32	4	-11	15	14.5	21.4	-6.86	15.7	11.4	4.29
Tyrus Thomas	45	46	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.18	-1	-6	5	15.4	15.2	0.26	13.8	16.8	-2.95
Joakim Noah	33	32	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	0.07	-10	3	-13	15.9	15.0	0.93	16.1	14.9	1.16
Ben Gordon	77	76	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.28	0	-7	7	15.6	14.0	1.58	15.1	16.3	-1.24
Drew Gooden	44	45	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.00	-10	3	-13	15.8	14.9	0.92	15.5	15.1	0.39
Andres Nocioni	23	23	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.01	-18	11	-29	17.4	14.6	2.82	14.6	15.6	-1.00
Larry Hughes	49	51	-0.62	0.12	-0.75	-0.21	-14	7	-21	14.5	16.2	-1.65	15.3	15.3	-0.03

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Charlie Villanueva	60	58	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.22	11	-4	15	15.4	15.2	0.20	14.6	16.5	-1.84
Dan Gadzuric	42	40	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.20	11	-4	15	16.2	14.7	1.51	15.1	15.4	-0.28
Ramon Sessions	44	43	0.48	0.02	0.47	-0.02	17	-10	27	13.7	16.8	-3.11	16.2	14.6	1.58
Richard Jefferson	77	76	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.38	0	7	-7	15.3	15.3	0.06	15.2	15.9	-0.77
Luke Ridnour	82	80	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.26	1	6	-5	15.5	14.5	0.91	14.9	17.6	-2.68
Luc Mbah a Moute	30	30	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.13	2	5	-3	16.3	14.9	1.47	15.8	15.1	0.72
Michael Redd	52	50	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.13	1	6	-5	15.9	14.6	1.36	15.1	15.6	-0.46
Andrew Bogut	53	53	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.09	-4	11	-15	14.7	16.2	-1.51	15.4	15.1	0.28
Malik Allen	35	35	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.08	-4	11	-15	15.2	15.4	-0.20	16.5	14.6	1.84

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.48,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.48,0.55,0.6,0.67,0.73,0.71,0.75,0.75,0.75,0.76,0.8,0.78,0.82,0.84,0.84,0.83,0.87,0.86,0.91,0.83,0.83,0.76,0.67,0.68,0.66,0.77,0.82,0.89,0.81,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.96,0.98,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 103, OKC 111	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.55,0.64,0.62,0.67,0.72,0.77,0.82,0.81,0.79,0.78,0.8,0.81,0.82,0.85,0.87,0.9,0.87,0.83,0.84,0.73,0.74,0.68,0.74,0.78,0.88,0.91,0.85,0.94,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	96.1%
NJN 64, MIA 85	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.53,0.58,0.53,0.59,0.53,0.6,0.62,0.54,0.6,0.66,0.62,0.66,0.69,0.78,0.78,0.79,0.8,0.74,0.72,0.82,0.8,0.79,0.82,0.82,0.85,0.79,0.82,0.85,0.85,0.87,0.78,0.79,0.74,0.74,0.88,0.86,0.88,0.92,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.0%
UTA 98, LAL 109	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.58,0.55,0.53,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.58,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.69,0.78,0.75,0.78,0.84,0.85,0.86,0.84,0.84,0.84,0.87,0.93,0.94,0.91,0.85,0.84,0.79,0.8,0.82,0.78,0.85,0.82,0.86,0.85,0.87,0.91,0.87,0.9,0.96,0.94,1,1	93.9%