NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	97		Excitement	6.3 [569]		MVP	Emeka Okafor (CHA): +23.9%
Charlotte Bobcats	103		Comeback	1.9 [681]		LVP	Russell Westbrook (OKC): -18.1%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jeff Green	0.20	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.2	0.13	0.08	0.01	9	82%	0.24	1	-0.04	4	50%	-0.03
Kevin Durant	0.13	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13	0.15	0.02	0.04	12	86%	0.26	3	-0.13	4	75%	-0.00
Joe Smith	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09	0.07	0.03	0.02	8	65%	0.09	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Damien Wilkins	0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.02	0.00	6	57%	0.06	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.02
Desmond Mason	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	5	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Earl Watson	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	5	60%	0.05	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Nick Collison	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	1	50%	-0.00	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Chris Wilcox	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12	-0.04	-0.06	0.03	11	50%	-0.01	3	-0.11	2	100%	0.01
Russell Westbrook	-0.18	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.2,-0.2,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18	-0.13	-0.07	-0.02	9	38%	0.00	5	-0.18	8	75%	-0.00

Charlotte Bobcats
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Emeka Okafor	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.2,0.26,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.13	0.14	0.03	11	74%	0.28	2	-0.04	12	75%	-0.01
Jason Richardson	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.03	0.00	16	53%	0.07	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
D.J. Augustin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.04	-0.01	9	50%	0.09	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Adam Morrison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	0.00	2	75%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwayne Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	0.00	2	67%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jared Dudley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.03	-0.00	4	25%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sean May	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.03	-0.02	7	62%	0.09	2	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Matt Carroll	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0	-0.00	0.02	-0.01	0.02	13	60%	0.11	4	-0.11	9	100%	0.05
Shannon Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0.00	1	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Raymond Felton	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,0,-0.01,-0.02	-0.02	-0.11	0.06	-0.03	11	33%	0.03	3	-0.05	2	0%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.3	2.5	32.3	15.7	24.4	2.3	36.6	141.1
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC -8.8%

CHA +15.8%

CHA +6.8%

CHA +30.7%

CHA +5.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	CHA	NBA	OKC	CHA	NBA
this game	14.3	16.0	15.5	102.1	108.4	106.4
season	14.9	16.5		100.5	103.0
opponent	15.6	15.1		104.5	106.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	14.2	14.1	16.7	12.5	14.3
CHA	17.7	16.6	13.9	15.7	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joe Smith	42	39	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.25	11	-17	28	12.3	16.0	-3.65	15.8	16.1	-0.25
Earl Watson	42	40	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.23	7	-13	20	13.0	15.5	-2.50	18.2	14.4	3.81
Nick Collison	31	30	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.02	-2	-4	2	14.4	14.3	0.01	17.1	15.4	1.65
Damien Wilkins	39	37	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.00	-6	0	-6	14.7	14.1	0.63	15.0	16.6	-1.63
Desmond Mason	56	58	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.32	0	-6	6	14.1	14.7	-0.63	16.6	15.0	1.63
Chris Wilcox	45	47	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.09	-11	5	-16	15.4	13.4	2.00	15.7	16.2	-0.57
Russell Westbrook	71	72	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.18	-11	5	-16	15.2	11.9	3.31	15.2	18.4	-3.25
Jeff Green	78	80	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.21	-10	4	-14	14.4	13.9	0.49	15.5	18.7	-3.20
Kevin Durant	71	72	-0.55	0.05	-0.59	-0.31	-8	2	-10	14.8	13.1	1.69	15.9	16.2	-0.33

Charlotte Bobcats
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Emeka Okafor	78	77	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.33	13	-7	20	15.3	19.2	-3.98	14.8	12.6	2.21
Jason Richardson	80	79	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.27	13	-7	20	15.3	19.3	-3.92	14.6	13.3	1.24
Gerald Wallace	83	82	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.33	10	-4	14	15.4	19.6	-4.14	14.7	11.8	2.90
Raymond Felton	69	68	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.28	2	4	-2	16.0	15.9	0.06	14.3	14.6	-0.29
D.J. Augustin	54	53	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.34	-3	9	-12	17.0	14.7	2.30	14.0	14.7	-0.70
Jared Dudley	30	31	0.14	0.36	-0.23	0.11	1	5	-4	17.8	15.1	2.68	15.1	14.0	1.11
Sean May	55	55	0.11	0.39	-0.29	-0.01	4	2	2	15.6	16.5	-0.96	14.1	14.7	-0.61
Shannon Brown	8	10	0.03	0.47	-0.45	-0.00	1	5	-4	12.4	16.3	-3.92	10.7	14.8	-4.08
Matt Carroll	0	1	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	-0.04	0	6	-6	0.0	16.0	-15.97	0.0	14.5	-14.50
Dwayne Jones	11	10	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.05	-5	11	-16	21.7	15.2	6.51	12.9	14.5	-1.62
Adam Morrison	7	9	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	-0.02	-6	12	-18	19.7	15.7	4.04	14.0	14.4	-0.38

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.63,0.63,0.62,0.64,0.64,0.57,0.6,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.55,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.55,0.62,0.62,0.69,0.7,0.82,0.74,0.74,0.67,0.71,0.73,0.64,0.84,0.91,0.93,0.9,0.94,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 88, BOS 99	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.61,0.61,0.53,0.55,0.64,0.65,0.6,0.53,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.47,0.49,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.54,0.63,0.63,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.76,0.81,0.83,0.85,0.83,0.96,0.95,0.99,1,1	93.7%
MEM 86, CHA 101	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.54,0.58,0.63,0.64,0.65,0.69,0.62,0.66,0.65,0.6,0.56,0.47,0.53,0.6,0.59,0.51,0.59,0.58,0.64,0.67,0.63,0.55,0.54,0.61,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.65,0.69,0.66,0.71,0.79,0.74,0.7,0.75,0.82,0.85,0.78,0.85,0.97,0.98,0.97,1,1,1	93.6%
SAS 76, LAL 88	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.59,0.61,0.66,0.63,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.5,0.48,0.57,0.58,0.61,0.52,0.55,0.65,0.73,0.69,0.63,0.75,0.66,0.6,0.52,0.67,0.63,0.69,0.76,0.87,0.86,0.93,0.99,1,1	93.6%