NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	96		Excitement	8.4 [187]		MVP	Zach Randolph (LAC): +28.6%
Los Angeles Clippers	97		Comeback	6.1 [183]		LVP	Baron Davis (LAC): -39.1%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Beasley	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,0,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.05,0.13,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.10	0.08	-0.00	16	73%	0.30	4	-0.12	1	100%	0.01
Mario Chalmers	0.08	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.03	0.01	9	61%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.05	0.03	0.02	0.00	15	53%	0.09	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Joel Anthony	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.03	1	0%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Magloire	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Yakhouba Diawara	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	29%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Chris Quinn	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Daequan Cook	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,-0.07,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.05	-0.10	0.00	11	32%	-0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Marion	-0.15	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.12	-0.08	-0.05	6	33%	-0.00	5	-0.15	3	100%	0.02
Dwyane Wade	-0.15	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.05,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.15	0.03	-0.15	0.03	21	59%	-0.01	4	-0.14	2	0%	-0.05

Los Angeles Clippers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Zach Randolph	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.19,0.33,0.29,0.29,0.29	0.29	0.09	0.20	0.01	20	60%	0.37	2	-0.08	5	80%	0.02
Al Thornton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.12	0.04	0.01	14	64%	0.22	2	-0.06	14	79%	0.02
Marcus Camby	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.02	0.07	-0.00	9	52%	0.12	1	-0.03	5	80%	0.01
Paul Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	3	62%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Mardy Collins	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Novak	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Skinner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Gordon	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.04	-0.00	7	33%	-0.03	2	-0.07	1	0%	-0.01
Mike Taylor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.05	-0.06	0.00	6	43%	-0.03	2	-0.08	2	50%	-0.02
Baron Davis	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.22,-0.22,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.26,-0.26,-0.27,-0.27,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.19,-0.39	-0.39	-0.20	-0.20	-0.01	21	31%	-0.14	4	-0.25	6	33%	-0.07

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	1.8	28.8	15.5	26.1	1.8	44.1	142.5
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA -2.5%

LAC +21.9%

LAC +20.5%

MIA -12.0%

LAC +22.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	LAC	NBA	MIA	LAC	NBA
this game	16.0	15.1	15.5	103.2	105.4	106.4
season	16.0	15.7		105.9	100.7
opponent	15.1	15.7		109.8	105.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	13.9	17.3	17.0	16.1	16.0
LAC	14.9	16.2	14.3	15.2	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joel Anthony	37	37	0.15	-0.66	0.81	0.10	2	-3	5	16.6	15.6	1.01	16.2	14.4	1.74
Shawn Marion	65	65	0.11	-0.61	0.72	0.02	3	-4	7	14.8	18.8	-4.02	15.3	14.7	0.64
Yakhouba Diawara	12	11	0.06	-0.56	0.62	0.00	2	-3	5	19.2	15.5	3.72	15.4	15.1	0.28
Jamaal Magloire	6	5	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.01	0	-1	1	22.7	15.6	7.11	16.4	15.0	1.35
Chris Quinn	20	20	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.21	-1	0	-1	18.0	15.5	2.60	14.1	15.4	-1.24
Michael Beasley	52	51	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.25	-3	2	-5	16.3	15.6	0.67	15.0	15.3	-0.27
Daequan Cook	39	38	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.55	3	-4	7	17.2	15.1	2.06	16.0	14.5	1.46
Udonis Haslem	83	83	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.46	-4	3	-7	15.4	20.9	-5.48	14.6	19.7	-5.04
Mario Chalmers	72	71	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.51	-3	2	-5	15.7	16.9	-1.15	15.4	14.1	1.33
Dwyane Wade	79	79	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.49	-4	3	-7	15.3	20.1	-4.86	14.5	18.8	-4.25

Los Angeles Clippers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Baron Davis	85	85	0.67	-0.17	0.83	0.43	8	-7	15	14.6	21.4	-6.83	15.9	17.0	-1.08
Al Thornton	84	85	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.50	1	0	1	15.2	14.0	1.23	15.7	19.2	-3.54
Mardy Collins	10	12	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.36	3	-2	5	17.1	14.9	2.22	15.2	16.1	-0.97
Mike Taylor	42	42	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.52	-3	4	-7	15.8	14.5	1.31	17.1	15.1	1.98
Zach Randolph	81	80	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.39	1	0	1	15.0	15.8	-0.79	15.6	18.4	-2.76
Marcus Camby	67	68	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.27	3	-2	5	14.7	16.2	-1.43	15.5	17.4	-1.95
Brian Skinner	5	6	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	-0.01	0	1	-1	16.4	15.0	1.35	22.7	15.6	7.11
Steve Novak	8	8	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	-0.03	0	1	-1	14.0	15.2	-1.23	19.2	15.7	3.54
Eric Gordon	58	59	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	-0.01	-1	2	-3	15.2	15.0	0.19	15.3	17.3	-2.07
Paul Davis	20	20	-0.28	0.78	-1.06	-0.07	-7	8	-15	16.0	14.9	1.12	18.2	15.4	2.79

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.4,0.43,0.5,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.36,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.49,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.45,0.53,0.38,0.45,0.38,0.41,0.48,0.4,0.3,0.22,0.33,0.24,0.23,0.26,0.24,0.33,0.62,0.93,0.9,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 98, UTA 105	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.57,0.59,0.62,0.6,0.54,0.46,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.39,0.46,0.56,0.54,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.48,0.42,0.41,0.34,0.41,0.44,0.36,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.28,0.27,0.17,0.35,0.33,0.47,0.72,0.9,0.97,1	91.7%
CHI 88, PHI 97	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.46,0.5,0.49,0.39,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.45,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.47,0.5,0.49,0.47,0.36,0.36,0.46,0.46,0.41,0.46,0.38,0.31,0.36,0.42,0.44,0.45,0.38,0.31,0.27,0.33,0.25,0.26,0.26,0.33,0.25,0.42,0.36,0.29,0.46,0.69,0.78,0.97,1,1	91.7%
BOS 84, MIL 86	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.51,0.57,0.59,0.63,0.67,0.64,0.66,0.54,0.59,0.6,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.56,0.56,0.46,0.44,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.48,0.43,0.33,0.42,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.43,0.38,0.42,0.36,0.35,0.39,0.61,0.9,0.91,0.91,1	91.3%