NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	101		Excitement	5.1 [800]		MVP	Hedo Turkoglu (ORL): +13.2%
Orlando Magic	108		Comeback	1.1 [1215]		LVP	Ramon Sessions (MIL): -18.2%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Richard Jefferson	0.12	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12	0.13	0.01	0.02	16	74%	0.13	2	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Tyronn Lue	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.08	0.02	0.01	10	64%	0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Andrew Bogut	0.06	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.08	-0.01	0.02	9	80%	0.11	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Charlie Bell	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	8	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dan Gadzuric	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luc Mbah a Moute	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.02	-0.02	0.05	8	50%	-0.02	1	-0.03	6	83%	-0.01
Joe Alexander	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Villanueva	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.02	15	49%	0.02	3	-0.08	5	100%	0.03
Malik Allen	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.05	-0.05	0.01	4	30%	-0.05	1	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Ramon Sessions	-0.18	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18	-0.18	-0.04	-0.03	14	23%	-0.11	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.09	0.05	0.00	13	65%	0.18	2	-0.05	8	100%	0.02
Rashard Lewis	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.12,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12	0.12	0.09	0.01	-0.02	12	63%	0.17	2	-0.05	11	91%	0.03
JJ Redick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.00	-0.05	8	59%	0.10	2	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.01	6	57%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Courtney Lee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	-0.01	0.01	2	75%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Adonal Foyle	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.02	0.02	10	60%	0.10	6	-0.11	20	50%	-0.09
Anthony Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	4	43%	0.01	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.01
Tony Battie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	3	67%	0.02	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Mickael Pietrus	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	0.01	7	45%	-0.02	2	-0.05	6	50%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.7	1.7	30.4	15.6	31.6	1.8	44.2	151.0
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +36.4%

ORL +12.4%

ORL +1.1%

ORL +1.5%

MIL -1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	ORL	NBA	MIL	ORL	NBA
this game	14.9	14.1	15.5	101.0	109.1	106.4
season	15.0	15.3		104.9	107.3
opponent	15.8	15.6		101.4	105.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	16.1	17.1	13.8	12.9	14.9
ORL	13.2	13.6	15.0	14.3	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dan Gadzuric	18	18	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.01	-2	-5	3	13.6	15.2	-1.63	13.3	14.2	-0.88
Malik Allen	26	25	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.19	4	-11	15	14.3	15.1	-0.79	15.5	13.6	1.97
Joe Alexander	15	16	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.04	-4	-3	-1	16.7	14.6	2.17	14.3	14.0	0.31
Charlie Bell	40	42	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	0.02	-8	1	-9	15.8	14.3	1.52	14.0	14.1	-0.09
Tyronn Lue	59	57	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.27	2	-9	11	13.5	16.8	-3.29	13.8	14.4	-0.66
Charlie Villanueva	57	55	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.19	-1	-6	5	13.6	16.6	-3.05	12.8	15.6	-2.85
Andrew Bogut	44	45	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.00	-10	3	-13	17.1	13.2	3.89	14.3	13.8	0.48
Luc Mbah a Moute	77	76	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.28	-4	-3	-1	15.2	13.9	1.33	14.5	12.7	1.76
Richard Jefferson	86	84	-0.42	-0.07	-0.35	-0.31	-4	-3	-1	14.9	14.6	0.37	14.3	12.8	1.47
Ramon Sessions	78	77	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.21	-8	1	-9	15.0	14.6	0.33	14.0	14.1	-0.11

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rashard Lewis	81	82	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.20	10	-3	13	14.1	13.8	0.33	15.0	14.6	0.41
Hedo Turkoglu	78	76	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.27	3	4	-1	14.3	13.1	1.15	14.5	16.2	-1.68
JJ Redick	51	53	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.06	10	-3	13	13.5	14.6	-1.16	14.9	14.8	0.11
Mickael Pietrus	66	66	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.10	7	0	7	13.9	14.3	-0.42	16.1	12.6	3.53
Anthony Johnson	59	60	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.29	0	7	-7	13.6	14.7	-1.13	13.2	17.4	-4.27
Dwight Howard	66	69	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.22	1	6	-5	13.9	14.4	-0.52	14.1	16.6	-2.45
Jameer Nelson	33	33	0.16	0.34	-0.18	-0.02	6	1	5	14.5	13.8	0.70	17.5	13.6	3.87
Tony Battie	35	34	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.09	2	5	-3	14.2	14.0	0.19	15.7	14.5	1.19
Adonal Foyle	8	8	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.02	3	4	-1	14.7	14.0	0.76	17.1	14.7	2.43
Courtney Lee	18	19	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.22	-7	14	-21	15.6	13.7	1.84	13.2	15.3	-2.14

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.6,0.59,0.61,0.67,0.63,0.62,0.66,0.7,0.74,0.74,0.71,0.67,0.69,0.74,0.75,0.71,0.74,0.73,0.73,0.8,0.76,0.8,0.85,0.83,0.7,0.79,0.83,0.86,0.91,0.89,0.91,0.9,0.95,0.93,0.96,0.95,0.96,0.94,0.83,0.93,0.97,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 95, MIL 110	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.47,0.5,0.58,0.65,0.69,0.65,0.67,0.62,0.66,0.68,0.7,0.7,0.69,0.67,0.69,0.68,0.73,0.69,0.69,0.77,0.75,0.82,0.77,0.84,0.78,0.81,0.73,0.71,0.78,0.89,0.94,0.92,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.98,1,1,1,1,1	95.5%
SAC 88, DEN 109	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.53,0.56,0.55,0.6,0.55,0.58,0.64,0.68,0.7,0.69,0.73,0.73,0.75,0.68,0.71,0.66,0.75,0.75,0.73,0.8,0.68,0.74,0.85,0.81,0.76,0.77,0.83,0.87,0.89,0.95,0.87,0.85,0.92,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.3%
UTA 85, CHI 92	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.66,0.65,0.66,0.61,0.65,0.69,0.68,0.65,0.66,0.68,0.67,0.67,0.71,0.75,0.77,0.76,0.74,0.75,0.73,0.78,0.76,0.75,0.78,0.73,0.79,0.84,0.86,0.89,0.9,0.86,0.85,0.92,0.94,0.9,0.91,0.94,0.97,0.99,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.97,0.99,1	95.3%