NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Utah Jazz	103		Excitement	4.5 [928]		MVP	Mehmet Okur (UTA): +18.8%
Memphis Grizzlies	94		Comeback	1.5 [494]		LVP	Kyle Lowry (MEM): -9.1%

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mehmet Okur	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.14,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.15	0.04	-0.01	15	72%	0.24	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Ronnie Brewer	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.11	0.04	0.01	14	70%	0.17	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Morris Almond	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	0.00	0.01	6	61%	0.04	0	0.00	6	83%	0.00
Ronnie Price	0.04	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	0.01	7	71%	0.07	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Paul Millsap	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	7	57%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Andrei Kirilenko	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	0.01	5	69%	0.05	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.01
Brevin Knight	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	6	46%	-0.00	2	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02
CJ Miles	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	10	45%	0.00	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Matt Harpring	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	0.01	4	42%	-0.01	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Kosta Koufos	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	0.00	1	25%	-0.02	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Conley	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.11	0.01	0.04	9	78%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hakim Warrick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.03
Marko Jaric	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rudy Gay	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.04	16	55%	0.03	2	-0.05	6	67%	0.01
Marc Gasol	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	5	71%	0.03	4	-0.06	4	50%	-0.02
O.J. Mayo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.02	-0.01	0.05	17	52%	-0.02	2	-0.02	10	100%	0.03
Darko Milicic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	6	33%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Arthur	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	0.02	16	50%	0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Quinton Ross	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.04	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.6	2.4	27.7	15.8	27.3	1.7	31.2	129.7
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

UTA +53.3%

MEM -7.1%

MEM -1.7%

UTA +5.3%

UTA +0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	UTA	MEM	NBA	UTA	MEM	NBA
this game	14.6	16.4	15.5	109.6	102.2	106.4
season	15.3	16.1		107.7	101.7
opponent	15.3	15.0		107.6	105.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
UTA	14.8	13.0	16.5	14.6	14.6
MEM	18.0	15.3	17.0	15.4	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brevin Knight	53	52	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.13	10	-1	11	13.3	16.3	-3.00	15.3	17.7	-2.37
Mehmet Okur	74	74	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.22	6	3	3	14.8	14.0	0.80	16.4	16.2	0.24
Andrei Kirilenko	62	59	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.24	2	7	-5	13.9	16.0	-2.03	15.7	17.5	-1.85
Matt Harpring	25	26	0.27	0.23	0.05	-0.17	15	-6	21	12.6	15.3	-2.71	17.1	16.1	1.00
Morris Almond	31	30	0.27	0.23	0.04	-0.11	13	-4	17	13.3	15.3	-2.04	16.7	16.2	0.56
CJ Miles	63	62	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.35	-4	13	-17	15.3	13.3	2.04	16.2	16.7	-0.56
Ronnie Brewer	69	66	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.40	-6	15	-21	15.3	12.6	2.71	16.1	17.1	-1.00
Paul Millsap	33	34	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.03	6	3	3	16.0	13.9	2.11	17.7	15.6	2.14
Kosta Koufos	19	17	0.09	0.41	-0.31	-0.02	4	5	-1	13.8	14.8	-0.98	15.8	16.5	-0.73
Ronnie Price	41	40	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.11	-1	10	-11	16.3	13.3	3.00	17.7	15.3	2.37

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marko Jaric	16	16	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.32	11	-20	31	13.5	17.0	-3.46	17.2	14.1	3.16
Darrell Arthur	61	62	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.36	9	-18	27	16.7	15.8	0.88	16.3	11.5	4.79
Quinton Ross	34	36	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.05	-6	-3	-3	16.5	16.3	0.27	14.2	14.9	-0.61
Mike Conley	53	56	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.34	6	-15	21	16.5	16.2	0.27	15.4	13.6	1.80
Darko Milicic	29	31	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.00	-7	-2	-5	17.6	15.8	1.74	13.2	15.3	-2.09
Marc Gasol	49	49	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	0.15	-15	6	-21	16.7	16.0	0.72	14.4	14.8	-0.42
Kyle Lowry	39	38	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	0.10	-15	6	-21	16.2	16.5	-0.27	13.6	15.4	-1.80
Hakim Warrick	31	32	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	0.12	-18	9	-27	15.8	16.7	-0.88	11.5	16.3	-4.79
Rudy Gay	69	70	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.15	-9	0	-9	16.6	15.7	0.94	14.3	15.7	-1.45
O.J. Mayo	79	80	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.43	-1	-8	7	16.0	18.5	-2.45	15.3	11.0	4.26

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.57,0.6,0.53,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.49,0.47,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.26,0.33,0.27,0.3,0.21,0.23,0.25,0.33,0.24,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.21,0.19,0.07,0.06,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 113, NYK 99	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.55,0.62,0.54,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.55,0.46,0.37,0.36,0.42,0.38,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.47,0.31,0.28,0.3,0.22,0.25,0.23,0.2,0.25,0.17,0.23,0.18,0.22,0.09,0.1,0.29,0.25,0.22,0.13,0.12,0.09,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.0%
NJN 104, BOS 96	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.62,0.61,0.6,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.47,0.46,0.4,0.37,0.33,0.36,0.27,0.28,0.36,0.3,0.3,0.26,0.23,0.25,0.3,0.3,0.16,0.1,0.16,0.17,0.14,0.25,0.13,0.11,0.12,0.08,0.05,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0,0.03,0,0	95.0%
MIL 133, ATL 114	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.4,0.45,0.38,0.44,0.47,0.44,0.39,0.34,0.33,0.27,0.25,0.31,0.31,0.36,0.28,0.27,0.29,0.15,0.13,0.15,0.22,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.06,0.02,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	94.9%