NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	99		Excitement	5.3 [747]		MVP	Chauncey Billups (DEN): +20.9%
Cleveland Cavaliers	110		Comeback	1.8 [841]		LVP	Renaldo Balkman (DEN): -10.4%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chauncey Billups	0.21	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.21	0.24	0.02	0.05	13	87%	0.21	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
J.R. Smith	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.12	0.04	0.00	11	72%	0.17	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.00
Dahntay Jones	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	5	55%	0.04	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Linas Kleiza	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.00	0.01	-0.02	6	42%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenyon Martin	0.03	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.07	11	50%	0.08	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Nene	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.02	7	60%	0.04	2	-0.06	6	100%	0.03
Anthony Carter	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	5	20%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carmelo Anthony	-0.10	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.05	-0.03	0.01	12	56%	0.05	6	-0.15	8	87%	0.02
Renaldo Balkman	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.04	-0.00	3	0%	-0.07	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Daniel Gibson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.19,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.10	0.08	-0.03	11	68%	0.21	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.12	0.06	0.01	4	100%	0.16	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Wally Szczerbiak	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.07	0.03	0.02	6	71%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.02	-0.00	8	62%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mo Williams	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	-0.01	-0.01	21	56%	0.07	2	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Anderson Varejao	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	0.00	0.01	2	100%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
JJ Hickson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Delonte West	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	7	57%	0.07	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Sasha Pavlovic	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tarence Kinsey	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
LeBron James	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.01	-0.02	20	50%	0.13	5	-0.14	4	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	3.7	30.3	19.8	27.0	2.7	31.0	139.6
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CLE +51.1%

DEN -15.4%

CLE +1.5%

CLE +12.7%

CLE +0.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	CLE	NBA	DEN	CLE	NBA
this game	14.6	18.3	15.5	113.8	125.0	106.4
season	14.4	16.9		109.5	110.6
opponent	15.2	15.7		101.0	105.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	15.5	15.5	14.4	13.0	14.6
CLE	16.5	15.8	20.9	20.4	18.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kenyon Martin	63	66	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	-0.13	3	-14	17	14.9	14.0	0.87	18.0	19.2	-1.23
Dahntay Jones	29	29	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.00	-3	-8	5	15.2	14.3	0.91	16.7	19.1	-2.40
Anthony Carter	36	38	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.11	-2	-9	7	15.0	14.4	0.67	16.9	19.3	-2.45
Nene	62	62	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.06	-6	-5	-1	15.0	13.8	1.11	18.6	17.3	1.30
Renaldo Balkman	21	19	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.10	-6	-5	-1	14.9	14.5	0.36	19.6	17.9	1.75
J.R. Smith	51	51	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.10	-9	-2	-7	13.7	15.9	-2.14	19.1	17.1	1.94
Carmelo Anthony	68	69	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.13	-9	-2	-7	14.2	16.3	-2.15	19.0	15.6	3.35
Chauncey Billups	63	64	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.18	-8	-3	-5	14.8	14.1	0.76	18.9	16.5	2.48
Linas Kleiza	42	42	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.06	-15	4	-19	14.4	14.8	-0.39	16.7	19.7	-2.96

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Delonte West	60	60	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.07	15	-4	19	18.7	17.4	1.27	15.5	12.7	2.80
LeBron James	68	68	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.09	14	-3	17	19.0	15.7	3.25	15.0	13.4	1.55
Daniel Gibson	33	34	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.17	7	4	3	19.8	17.3	2.44	14.3	14.9	-0.60
Wally Szczerbiak	43	44	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.20	5	6	-1	18.6	17.9	0.67	13.4	15.9	-2.47
Ben Wallace	46	44	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.01	9	2	7	17.6	19.0	-1.32	16.0	13.3	2.68
Anderson Varejao	44	44	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.16	2	9	-7	18.9	17.6	1.25	13.8	15.5	-1.69
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	43	42	0.17	0.33	-0.16	-0.00	6	5	1	18.0	18.6	-0.60	15.4	13.9	1.49
Sasha Pavlovic	22	21	0.11	0.39	-0.28	-0.01	4	7	-3	16.7	18.8	-2.11	14.8	14.6	0.17
Mo Williams	64	62	0.10	0.40	-0.31	0.10	0	11	-11	17.9	19.2	-1.36	14.3	15.6	-1.30
Tarence Kinsey	1	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	11	-11	3.0	18.4	-15.44	12.0	14.7	-2.66
JJ Hickson	16	15	-0.09	0.59	-0.69	0.11	-7	18	-25	15.1	19.0	-3.91	12.0	15.2	-3.18

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.57,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.47,0.49,0.46,0.37,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.39,0.46,0.4,0.49,0.45,0.58,0.61,0.65,0.59,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.6,0.78,0.85,0.88,0.89,0.81,0.9,0.94,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
VAN 96, UTA 104	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.55,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.33,0.37,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.5,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.42,0.53,0.61,0.52,0.52,0.44,0.56,0.71,0.74,0.84,0.88,0.83,0.81,0.92,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,0.99,1	94.2%
SAS 101, GSW 116	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.57,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.54,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.47,0.49,0.44,0.47,0.39,0.42,0.36,0.32,0.33,0.37,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.61,0.68,0.55,0.52,0.63,0.63,0.75,0.7,0.87,0.93,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1	94.1%
LAL 82, MEM 88	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.59,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.43,0.41,0.44,0.39,0.28,0.33,0.42,0.42,0.53,0.55,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.56,0.6,0.78,0.9,0.85,0.93,0.88,0.9,0.97,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1	93.9%