NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	85		Excitement	8.1 [225]		MVP	Nick Collison (OKC): +19.9%
Oklahoma City Thunder	88		Comeback	7.0 [197]		LVP	Randy Foye (MIN): -46.6%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Al Jefferson	0.11	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.22,0.11,0.11	0.08	0.03	0.00	17	67%	0.18	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Craig Smith	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.04	0.04	0.00	10	57%	0.11	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
Rodney Carney	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.02	-0.00	6	54%	0.05	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Kevin Love	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	67%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.03
Kevin Ollie	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.01	-0.05	0.00	3	33%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Gomes	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.07,0.07,-0.03,-0.09	0.06	-0.15	0.00	10	60%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rashad McCants	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	6	29%	-0.03	1	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Mike Miller	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.03	-0.07	0.01	8	56%	0.05	3	-0.16	2	100%	0.01
Corey Brewer	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.12,-0.12	0.01	-0.13	-0.00	5	58%	0.04	1	-0.15	2	100%	0.01
Randy Foye	-0.47	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.29,-0.29,-0.47	-0.24	-0.24	-0.01	10	9%	-0.34	5	-0.13	2	100%	0.01

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nick Collison	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.2	0.20	0.01	0.16	-0.02	8	56%	0.21	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Joe Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	4	75%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Damien Wilkins	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Johan Petro	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	0.01	4	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Wilcox	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	-0.00	9	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.01
Desmond Mason	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.02	0.00	7	44%	0.03	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Russell Westbrook	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.16,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	13	48%	0.03	3	-0.10	3	67%	-0.00
Kevin Durant	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,0,0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	21	38%	-0.06	1	-0.04	5	80%	0.00
Jeff Green	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,-0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.13,-0.17	-0.17	-0.05	-0.13	-0.00	14	43%	-0.01	2	-0.16	2	0%	-0.04
Earl Watson	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.28,-0.28	-0.28	-0.12	-0.20	-0.03	8	25%	-0.12	3	-0.17	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.1	1.8	31.0	14.8	25.4	0.7	31.1	129.8
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +41.0%

MIN -17.5%

OKC +18.1%

OKC +4.5%

OKC +3.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	OKC	NBA	MIN	OKC	NBA
this game	15.8	15.8	15.5	93.4	96.7	106.4
season	15.8	14.9		104.3	100.5
opponent	15.1	15.1		106.6	109.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	15.0	16.4	13.6	19.0	15.8
OKC	16.3	15.6	15.2	16.2	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rodney Carney	17	17	0.04	-0.54	0.57	0.01	1	-4	5	16.2	15.8	0.41	14.9	16.0	-1.13
Al Jefferson	62	62	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.30	8	-11	19	16.0	15.6	0.43	16.0	15.4	0.62
Corey Brewer	50	51	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.19	4	-7	11	16.2	15.4	0.79	16.4	15.1	1.30
Ryan Gomes	55	55	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.35	6	-9	15	14.6	17.7	-3.06	16.6	14.6	1.97
Kevin Ollie	32	31	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.13	-2	-1	-1	18.0	14.7	3.37	16.3	15.5	0.79
Randy Foye	59	60	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.28	-1	-2	1	14.7	18.0	-3.37	15.5	16.3	-0.79
Rashad McCants	39	37	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.26	-5	2	-7	15.0	16.5	-1.44	15.5	16.0	-0.58
Kevin Love	33	33	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.15	-9	6	-15	16.6	15.4	1.24	15.8	15.8	-0.02
Craig Smith	41	40	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.10	-11	8	-19	16.6	15.3	1.30	14.6	16.7	-2.06
Mike Miller	67	69	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.30	-6	3	-9	16.0	15.4	0.64	15.7	16.2	-0.56

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Russell Westbrook	47	48	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.44	7	-4	11	14.9	16.7	-1.79	16.4	15.2	1.25
Joe Smith	33	33	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.11	12	-9	21	15.0	16.2	-1.21	15.2	16.2	-0.95
Desmond Mason	44	44	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.09	12	-9	21	15.0	16.5	-1.51	16.7	15.1	1.57
Chris Wilcox	46	45	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.04	12	-9	21	14.9	16.8	-1.89	17.7	14.1	3.60
Jeff Green	68	69	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.38	-4	7	-11	16.0	15.3	0.61	15.6	16.6	-0.98
Kevin Durant	71	70	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.31	-2	5	-7	15.7	16.2	-0.51	16.1	15.0	1.10
Earl Watson	52	51	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.28	-2	5	-7	16.0	15.5	0.55	15.2	16.6	-1.43
Nick Collison	60	59	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.34	-6	9	-15	16.4	14.6	1.75	15.6	16.2	-0.57
Damien Wilkins	2	3	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	0.04	-2	5	-7	29.0	15.5	13.49	8.0	16.1	-8.11
Johan Petro	32	33	-0.34	0.84	-1.19	0.01	-12	15	-27	17.9	14.7	3.20	14.0	16.9	-2.85

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.44,0.5,0.47,0.38,0.34,0.35,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.38,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.34,0.37,0.28,0.22,0.21,0.16,0.23,0.25,0.18,0.19,0.21,0.38,0.48,0.62,0.58,0.47,0.53,0.65,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.55,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
NOH 83, MIA 87	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.44,0.4,0.38,0.43,0.39,0.35,0.37,0.31,0.3,0.34,0.4,0.33,0.27,0.29,0.37,0.44,0.54,0.46,0.41,0.36,0.42,0.37,0.34,0.3,0.22,0.27,0.23,0.32,0.28,0.24,0.26,0.29,0.3,0.43,0.52,0.62,0.58,0.59,0.66,0.6,0.61,0.63,0.34,0.58,1	91.6%
MIN 97, NOH 101	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.45,0.44,0.43,0.39,0.37,0.4,0.45,0.4,0.35,0.38,0.36,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.39,0.3,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.46,0.38,0.34,0.31,0.27,0.27,0.26,0.25,0.35,0.24,0.3,0.18,0.34,0.48,0.34,0.38,0.42,0.59,0.47,0.33,0.38,0.45,0.57,0.72,1	91.2%
MIN 79, NYK 82	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.34,0.31,0.31,0.34,0.39,0.34,0.31,0.39,0.49,0.49,0.41,0.49,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.29,0.2,0.21,0.29,0.23,0.18,0.38,0.48,0.56,0.58,0.63,0.69,0.65,0.72,0.75,0.63,0.67,0.81,1	90.9%