NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	87		Excitement	4.6 [914]		MVP	Gerald Wallace (CHA): +23.2%
Charlotte Bobcats	100		Comeback	1.4 [806]		LVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): -6.2%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Udonis Haslem	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.14	0.00	0.04	9	89%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Beasley	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.14	-0.01	0.04	16	69%	0.12	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Marcus Banks	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.03	-0.00	5	58%	0.06	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Joel Anthony	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.00
Chris Quinn	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	2	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Mark Blount	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Daequan Cook	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.09	0.02	-0.03	8	19%	-0.03	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	6	43%	0.00	3	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Shawn Marion	-0.06	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	9	45%	-0.03	2	-0.03	2	0%	-0.03
Dwyane Wade	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	0.01	0.02	15	44%	-0.04	2	-0.03	13	69%	-0.01

Charlotte Bobcats
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gerald Wallace	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.22,0.23,0.22,0.24,0.24,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.18	0.05	-0.01	16	71%	0.31	4	-0.07	16	62%	-0.03
Jason Richardson	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.08	0.01	0.01	17	64%	0.11	2	-0.03	2	50%	0.00
Emeka Okafor	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.07	0.01	0.01	9	69%	0.10	3	-0.04	8	50%	-0.04
Shannon Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.00	2	67%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Jared Dudley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	6	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Andre Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Alexis Ajinca	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	1	0%	0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Raymond Felton	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.01	-0.02	4	60%	0.05	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Adam Morrison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	0.01	-0.00	6	25%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
D.J. Augustin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.12	0.01	-0.06	7	29%	0.02	4	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.4	1.8	33.0	15.7	33.3	2.7	32.2	145.0
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHA +45.0%

CHA +4.8%

CHA +18.3%

MIA -18.8%

CHA +0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	CHA	NBA	MIA	CHA	NBA
this game	16.8	17.3	15.5	103.6	117.6	106.4
season	16.0	16.5		105.9	103.0
opponent	15.6	15.7		104.5	105.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	18.8	16.4	14.6	17.4	16.8
CHA	15.5	18.8	18.1	17.0	17.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joel Anthony	3	3	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-13	13	14.7	16.8	-2.16	15.7	17.4	-1.72
Mario Chalmers	61	62	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.25	4	-17	21	16.9	16.4	0.49	17.9	15.9	1.94
Dwyane Wade	51	53	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.10	-2	-11	9	16.7	16.8	-0.16	17.2	17.5	-0.27
Mark Blount	7	6	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.03	-7	-6	-1	13.9	17.0	-3.16	20.2	17.1	3.05
Udonis Haslem	65	67	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.11	-6	-7	1	17.0	16.0	0.97	17.3	17.4	-0.15
Shawn Marion	71	71	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.13	-6	-7	1	17.2	14.5	2.62	17.7	15.6	2.10
Michael Beasley	74	75	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.14	-6	-7	1	17.2	13.7	3.46	16.8	21.0	-4.16
Chris Quinn	21	21	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.12	-15	2	-17	16.2	16.9	-0.68	16.2	17.7	-1.51
Marcus Banks	24	25	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	0.02	-12	-1	-11	15.4	17.3	-1.87	16.4	17.7	-1.37
Daequan Cook	43	42	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.03	-15	2	-17	16.5	17.0	-0.44	17.9	16.8	1.09

Charlotte Bobcats
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gerald Wallace	78	75	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.05	17	-4	21	16.8	22.9	-6.02	17.0	14.7	2.33
Jason Richardson	69	66	0.48	0.02	0.46	-0.02	17	-4	21	17.1	18.2	-1.13	17.8	13.0	4.77
Raymond Felton	56	54	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.03	14	-1	15	17.1	17.8	-0.76	16.2	17.7	-1.48
Emeka Okafor	64	63	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.08	11	2	9	17.4	17.1	0.31	17.3	15.0	2.33
Adam Morrison	28	29	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.06	10	3	7	18.1	16.9	1.21	16.7	16.8	-0.09
Jared Dudley	50	51	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.02	4	9	-5	17.2	17.5	-0.36	17.3	16.0	1.29
Andre Brown	18	18	0.10	0.40	-0.31	0.04	2	11	-9	17.3	17.3	0.00	15.1	17.2	-2.16
D.J. Augustin	36	38	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.17	-4	17	-21	18.3	16.6	1.65	15.9	17.5	-1.56
Alexis Ajinca	3	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	13	-13	15.7	17.4	-1.72	14.7	16.8	-2.16
Shannon Brown	23	23	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.16	-6	19	-25	18.1	17.0	1.10	14.6	17.6	-2.95

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.51,0.56,0.53,0.47,0.43,0.49,0.53,0.6,0.65,0.6,0.62,0.73,0.82,0.8,0.76,0.75,0.78,0.72,0.72,0.75,0.8,0.77,0.77,0.8,0.81,0.84,0.82,0.89,0.86,0.85,0.89,0.9,0.85,0.78,0.91,0.93,0.89,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 94, SAC 108	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.6,0.59,0.56,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.68,0.81,0.81,0.72,0.68,0.68,0.71,0.69,0.79,0.75,0.7,0.76,0.74,0.74,0.78,0.81,0.85,0.92,0.94,0.9,0.89,0.85,0.85,0.81,0.92,0.95,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1	95.2%
MIL 106, NJN 120	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.64,0.68,0.64,0.66,0.77,0.84,0.82,0.86,0.86,0.82,0.8,0.75,0.75,0.84,0.83,0.8,0.75,0.78,0.76,0.79,0.81,0.84,0.85,0.81,0.85,0.74,0.82,0.85,0.89,0.92,0.9,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	95.1%
SEA 78, WAS 95	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.45,0.41,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.54,0.6,0.56,0.6,0.67,0.75,0.82,0.8,0.75,0.76,0.72,0.77,0.74,0.67,0.71,0.77,0.8,0.83,0.81,0.77,0.82,0.81,0.89,0.89,0.79,0.9,0.93,0.92,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.1%