NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	98		Excitement	2.7 [1227]		MVP	Richard Jefferson (MIL): +7.6%
Oklahoma City Thunder	87		Comeback	1.0 [557]		LVP	Kevin Durant (OKC): -11.2%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Richard Jefferson	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.12	0.00	0.04	10	69%	0.08	1	-0.01	9	89%	0.01
Andrew Bogut	0.05	0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.04	0.01	-0.08	8	70%	0.08	6	-0.03	4	50%	-0.01
Michael Redd	0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	-0.00	-0.05	18	50%	0.07	3	-0.04	4	75%	0.00
Charlie Villanueva	0.02	0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.02,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.05	17	54%	0.08	5	-0.06	3	100%	0.00
Malik Allen	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.04	4	25%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dan Gadzuric	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	2	83%	0.04	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Tyronn Lue	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.04	0.00	0.04	2	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Bell	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.05	0.00	0.06	7	69%	-0.01	1	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Luke Ridnour	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.07	0.00	-0.04	6	14%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Luc Mbah a Moute	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Wilcox	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.05	0.00	0.04	8	62%	0.03	1	-0.02	5	60%	-0.00
Nick Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	5	58%	0.02	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Joe Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	-0.00	4	73%	0.02	3	-0.02	3	67%	0.01
Kyle Weaver	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Damien Wilkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	0.01	4	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Desmond Mason	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	0.03	7	52%	-0.02	1	-0.00	7	71%	-0.02
Johan Petro	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.00	-0.03	5	20%	-0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Earl Watson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	9	40%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Jeff Green	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.11	0.00	-0.05	8	45%	-0.00	5	-0.05	4	75%	0.01
Russell Westbrook	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	0.00	-0.01	0.07	9	54%	-0.03	2	-0.04	6	67%	-0.01
Kevin Durant	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.11	-0.00	0.00	14	40%	-0.05	4	-0.07	2	100%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.5	2.6	33.4	15.8	23.6	2.5	33.2	138.5
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +30.9%

MIL +3.8%

MIL +10.9%

MIL +5.8%

OKC -1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	OKC	NBA	MIL	OKC	NBA
this game	16.4	14.9	15.5	105.4	95.6	106.4
season	15.0	14.9		104.9	100.5
opponent	15.1	15.6		106.6	105.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	16.2	14.4	15.8	19.6	16.4
OKC	15.1	15.0	13.5	16.4	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Charlie Villanueva	67	68	0.48	0.02	0.47	-0.22	24	-13	37	15.8	17.8	-2.00	14.9	15.0	-0.04
Michael Redd	67	66	0.48	0.02	0.46	-0.10	20	-9	29	15.6	18.5	-2.91	14.3	16.6	-2.37
Richard Jefferson	76	76	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.08	12	-1	13	16.5	15.9	0.52	14.9	15.1	-0.17
Luke Ridnour	48	49	0.37	0.13	0.25	-0.18	19	-8	27	15.9	16.8	-0.88	14.3	15.6	-1.29
Andrew Bogut	57	57	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.02	10	1	9	17.8	14.1	3.63	15.1	14.7	0.35
Dan Gadzuric	36	33	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.11	3	8	-5	14.1	17.8	-3.63	15.1	14.8	0.26
Tyronn Lue	32	31	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.34	-9	20	-29	17.2	15.9	1.25	15.7	14.5	1.14
Charlie Bell	39	37	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.36	-10	21	-31	17.6	15.5	2.15	15.9	14.3	1.63
Luc Mbah a Moute	22	19	0.07	0.43	-0.37	0.27	-7	18	-25	16.7	16.3	0.41	13.9	15.2	-1.30
Malik Allen	21	19	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.22	-7	18	-25	17.5	16.0	1.43	16.1	14.6	1.49

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kyle Weaver	3	3	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.09	3	-14	17	6.3	15.2	-8.88	23.7	16.1	7.54
Damien Wilkins	25	26	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.13	2	-13	15	14.3	15.2	-0.83	15.5	16.7	-1.15
Desmond Mason	43	44	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.39	11	-22	33	15.2	14.7	0.54	18.1	14.8	3.23
Joe Smith	32	33	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.26	5	-16	21	16.6	14.0	2.58	18.3	15.3	3.00
Chris Wilcox	54	54	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.32	6	-17	23	15.4	14.3	1.10	14.9	18.3	-3.39
Russell Westbrook	40	40	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.31	5	-16	21	15.4	14.5	0.90	17.5	15.5	1.95
Earl Watson	51	53	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	0.13	-16	5	-21	14.5	15.4	-0.90	15.5	17.5	-1.95
Johan Petro	31	32	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.21	-19	8	-27	14.7	15.0	-0.27	18.1	15.5	2.63
Nick Collison	58	59	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	0.14	-18	7	-25	14.2	16.2	-1.93	15.5	17.8	-2.25
Kevin Durant	64	65	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.02	-14	3	-17	15.4	13.9	1.47	16.1	16.9	-0.81
Jeff Green	54	56	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	0.15	-20	9	-29	14.4	15.8	-1.40	15.4	17.8	-2.40

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.39,0.38,0.32,0.34,0.3,0.3,0.34,0.32,0.3,0.32,0.32,0.25,0.27,0.28,0.22,0.17,0.13,0.11,0.15,0.13,0.12,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 100, DET 86	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.41,0.32,0.28,0.27,0.26,0.25,0.32,0.34,0.3,0.32,0.34,0.29,0.27,0.24,0.22,0.18,0.13,0.11,0.1,0.11,0.14,0.16,0.1,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.4%
SEA 111, BOS 92	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.43,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.3,0.29,0.3,0.32,0.34,0.29,0.21,0.23,0.26,0.23,0.17,0.18,0.14,0.2,0.12,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.2%
MIA 128, SAC 99	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.32,0.31,0.33,0.3,0.35,0.27,0.28,0.32,0.32,0.25,0.23,0.22,0.15,0.16,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.0%