NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	88		Excitement	5.5 [681]		MVP	Ricky Davis (MIA): +22.7%
Miami Heat	95		Comeback	4.1 [59]		LVP	Tyrus Thomas (CHI): -9.6%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Duhon	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.04	0.04	0.00	3	83%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luol Deng	0.07	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.23,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.11	-0.02	0.01	11	83%	0.24	5	-0.17	8	87%	0.03
Aaron Gray	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	2	80%	0.07	1	-0.04	1	0%	-0.03
Andres Nocioni	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	7	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	0.00	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.02	-0.00	5	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joakim Noah	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.05	-0.02	0.06	12	57%	0.01	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Larry Hughes	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.07	0.03	-0.02	10	30%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ben Gordon	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	13	50%	0.02	3	-0.08	6	83%	-0.02
Thabo Sefolosha	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Tyrus Thomas	-0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.02	-0.02	8	25%	-0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ricky Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.18,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.09	0.12	-0.02	10	70%	0.26	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
Chris Quinn	0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.01	0.07	-0.03	12	57%	0.15	3	-0.04	4	100%	0.03
Joel Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.04	0.05	0.00	3	75%	0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kasib Powell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.03	16	56%	0.09	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Mark Blount	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	-0.00	0.00	11	57%	0.07	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Stephane Lasme	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	-0.00	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Daequan Cook	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	4	62%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Earl Barron	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	12	50%	0.01	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.00
Jason Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	5	33%	-0.00	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.2	2.6	27.2	15.4	24.1	1.0	29.4	120.9
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +28.8%

MIA +3.5%

CHI -1.7%

MIA +17.0%

MIA +2.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	MIA	NBA	CHI	MIA	NBA
this game	14.1	18.3	15.4	100.0	105.6	105.7
season	15.0	16.0		102.2	99.0
opponent	15.4	15.5		108.3	105.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	14.5	12.8	16.1	13.0	14.1
MIA	18.9	18.5	19.1	16.8	18.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Larry Hughes	49	51	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.15	5	-12	17	13.3	15.0	-1.65	18.3	18.2	0.18
Joakim Noah	59	59	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	-0.27	8	-15	23	13.6	15.0	-1.41	18.9	17.0	1.92
Tyrus Thomas	53	54	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	0.03	-3	-4	1	14.1	14.0	0.14	19.4	16.6	2.79
Kirk Hinrich	52	56	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.14	-2	-5	3	14.0	14.1	-0.09	18.5	17.8	0.69
Luol Deng	68	69	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.23	1	-8	9	13.8	14.8	-0.96	19.1	15.3	3.81
Chris Duhon	36	34	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.16	-5	-2	-3	14.1	14.0	0.09	17.8	18.5	-0.69
Aaron Gray	19	19	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.05	-10	3	-13	15.2	13.8	1.40	16.5	18.7	-2.19
Thabo Sefolosha	22	23	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.12	-8	1	-9	14.8	13.8	1.02	15.9	19.1	-3.21
Andres Nocioni	33	35	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.05	-15	8	-23	15.1	13.5	1.61	16.9	19.1	-2.29
Ben Gordon	49	50	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.33	-6	-1	-5	14.1	13.9	0.19	17.7	18.9	-1.25

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kasib Powell	72	68	0.79	-0.29	1.08	0.26	18	-11	29	17.8	20.1	-2.25	14.0	14.2	-0.19
Stephane Lasme	34	33	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.14	13	-6	19	17.4	18.7	-1.31	15.5	13.2	2.28
Jason Williams	33	33	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.07	10	-3	13	17.5	18.7	-1.26	14.5	13.8	0.68
Mark Blount	61	59	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.19	5	2	3	18.8	17.0	1.80	13.9	14.3	-0.38
Ricky Davis	74	72	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.23	3	4	-1	18.0	19.6	-1.67	14.0	14.4	-0.47
Joel Anthony	29	29	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.10	2	5	-3	17.0	18.8	-1.80	14.3	13.9	0.38
Chris Quinn	57	55	0.14	0.36	-0.23	0.22	-3	10	-13	18.7	17.5	1.26	13.8	14.5	-0.68
Earl Barron	47	48	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.03	-2	9	-11	19.3	17.1	2.14	13.5	14.7	-1.27
Daequan Cook	43	43	-0.10	0.60	-0.71	0.22	-11	18	-29	19.0	17.5	1.51	13.8	14.3	-0.47

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.39,0.44,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.39,0.44,0.49,0.39,0.3,0.33,0.24,0.31,0.25,0.22,0.27,0.42,0.48,0.56,0.59,0.52,0.48,0.58,0.66,0.62,0.76,0.85,0.9,0.94,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 82, NJN 86	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.41,0.42,0.41,0.41,0.37,0.33,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.45,0.44,0.47,0.42,0.37,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.37,0.32,0.37,0.31,0.3,0.33,0.48,0.52,0.59,0.52,0.6,0.72,0.66,0.57,0.75,0.8,0.77,0.92,0.98,0.98,0.98,1,1,1,1	94.0%
MIA 76, PHI 87	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.34,0.34,0.35,0.34,0.37,0.38,0.42,0.36,0.35,0.42,0.36,0.38,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.44,0.33,0.35,0.28,0.25,0.3,0.36,0.42,0.53,0.59,0.56,0.52,0.6,0.62,0.57,0.67,0.86,0.88,0.83,0.94,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,1	93.7%
LAC 97, MIA 102	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.39,0.42,0.43,0.44,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.51,0.53,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.41,0.44,0.41,0.39,0.42,0.3,0.31,0.36,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.38,0.45,0.56,0.48,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.79,0.75,0.87,0.92,0.96,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,1	93.6%