NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	116		Excitement	1.7 [1312]		MVP	Josh Smith (ATL): +11.3%
Memphis Grizzlies	99		Comeback	1.1 [870]		LVP	Mike Conley (MEM): -5.6%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Josh Smith	0.11	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.23	0.01	0.12	13	84%	0.11	0	0.00	5	80%	0.01
Mike Bibby	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.08	0.01	-0.02	12	65%	0.11	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
Marvin Williams	0.07	0,0,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.10	0.00	0.03	6	86%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Josh Childress	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.10	0.00	0.05	10	70%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Johnson	0.04	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.09	0.00	0.05	15	61%	0.04	1	-0.00	1	100%	0.00
Al Horford	0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.07	0.00	0.04	13	58%	0.02	1	-0.00	7	100%	0.01
Zaza Pachulia	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.08	0.03	-0.05	2	50%	0.06	4	-0.06	4	100%	0.01
Solomon Jones	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario West	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeremy Richardson	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	1	0%	-0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Acie Law	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.07	0.00	-0.07	4	37%	0.01	3	-0.01	0	0%	0.00

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Collins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.06	0.00	0.04	3	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Juan Carlos Navarro	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.09	0.00	0.08	14	61%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.09	0.00	0.08	9	71%	0.02	1	-0.02	6	17%	-0.04
Hakim Warrick	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	8	50%	0.02	2	-0.02	6	83%	0.00
Brian Cardinal	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Casey Jacobsen	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Javaris Crittenton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.11	0.00	-0.10	9	32%	-0.00	3	-0.01	4	50%	-0.01
Darko Milicic	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.00	0.02	3	100%	0.01	3	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Rudy Gay	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.08	-0.00	0.10	21	64%	0.00	4	-0.02	3	33%	-0.00
Mike Conley	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.09	0.00	-0.03	5	20%	-0.04	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.4	2.4	28.4	15.7	24.2	2.3	24.6	124.0
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +28.3%

ATL +15.0%

ATL +0.1%

ATL +5.4%

ATL +1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	MEM	NBA	ATL	MEM	NBA
this game	16.7	14.1	15.4	123.4	106.5	105.7
season	15.4	14.9		104.2	103.3
opponent	14.9	15.7		109.9	107.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	12.7	17.6	16.7	20.4	16.7
MEM	16.8	13.7	13.3	12.3	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joe Johnson	73	72	0.47	0.03	0.43	-0.41	30	-13	43	16.6	17.0	-0.40	15.1	10.3	4.81
Josh Smith	70	67	0.43	0.07	0.37	-0.48	31	-14	45	16.6	17.2	-0.64	15.0	11.6	3.44
Al Horford	56	55	0.42	0.08	0.34	-0.43	29	-12	41	17.1	16.3	0.79	15.6	11.8	3.78
Mike Bibby	51	49	0.40	0.10	0.30	-0.66	36	-19	55	16.4	17.2	-0.83	16.2	11.7	4.46
Marvin Williams	61	60	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.13	8	9	-1	16.5	17.2	-0.64	14.4	13.4	0.98
Josh Childress	64	65	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.42	-6	23	-29	17.3	15.4	1.91	12.8	16.9	-4.11
Acie Law	43	44	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.66	-19	36	-55	17.2	16.4	0.83	11.7	16.2	-4.46
Zaza Pachulia	34	34	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.43	-12	29	-41	16.6	16.8	-0.14	12.3	15.1	-2.73
Mario West	5	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	19	-21	15.2	16.8	-1.62	6.6	14.5	-7.88
Solomon Jones	4	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	17	-17	13.0	16.9	-3.90	7.5	14.3	-6.85
Jeremy Richardson	9	10	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.29	-10	27	-37	16.8	16.7	0.05	9.5	14.6	-5.10

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Casey Jacobsen	4	4	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-17	17	7.5	14.3	-6.85	13.0	16.9	-3.90
Brian Cardinal	11	12	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.03	-2	-15	13	9.9	14.6	-4.70	13.5	17.2	-3.71
Juan Carlos Navarro	51	49	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.52	14	-31	45	12.8	15.6	-2.81	17.6	15.8	1.75
Jason Collins	55	55	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.53	13	-30	43	12.3	16.5	-4.18	18.1	14.9	3.18
Kyle Lowry	60	62	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.41	8	-25	33	12.5	16.9	-4.43	17.7	14.9	2.82
Javaris Crittenton	66	66	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.38	5	-22	27	12.6	17.6	-4.99	17.5	14.8	2.72
Mike Miller	33	35	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.30	-21	4	-25	16.9	12.5	4.38	15.6	17.4	-1.81
Mike Conley	33	32	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.41	-25	8	-33	16.9	12.5	4.43	14.9	17.7	-2.82
Hakim Warrick	41	43	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	0.63	-33	16	-49	16.0	12.5	3.57	15.6	17.7	-2.12
Darko Milicic	29	30	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	0.50	-29	12	-41	17.7	12.4	5.28	14.6	17.7	-3.09
Rudy Gay	82	82	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.03	-15	-2	-13	14.6	9.9	4.70	17.2	13.5	3.71

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.37,0.29,0.29,0.32,0.24,0.25,0.19,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.1,0.11,0.1,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 111, CLE 87	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.31,0.25,0.23,0.18,0.16,0.2,0.13,0.16,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.9%
MIL 104, CHI 70	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.41,0.38,0.38,0.31,0.28,0.26,0.24,0.24,0.18,0.17,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.08,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.9%
BOS 99, ATL 76	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.34,0.31,0.26,0.23,0.22,0.17,0.14,0.11,0.14,0.1,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.8%