NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	62		Excitement	2.1 [1288]		MVP	Kevin Garnett (BOS): +5.7%
Boston Celtics	88		Comeback	1.0 [1316]		LVP	Ricky Davis (MIA): -6.8%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Blake Ahearn	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.03	8	55%	0.02	3	-0.01	6	100%	0.01
Joel Anthony	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.01	1	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	-0.00
Mark Blount	-0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	7	37%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.02
Stephane Lasme	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	3	33%	-0.01	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Earl Barron	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Alexander Johnson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.02
Chris Quinn	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.08	0.01	-0.03	14	39%	-0.02	3	-0.03	8	87%	0.01
Kasib Powell	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.08	0.00	-0.02	8	33%	-0.03	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Ricky Davis	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.14	0.00	-0.07	13	45%	0.01	7	-0.08	5	100%	0.01

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Garnett	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.00	-0.00	7	60%	0.06	0	0.00	6	100%	0.01
Leon Powe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	0.00	-0.04	11	53%	0.06	3	-0.01	10	70%	-0.02
Sam Cassell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.01	8	50%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	-0.00
Rajon Rondo	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	7	57%	0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Ray Allen	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.07	0.00	-0.08	15	33%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kendrick Perkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	2	100%	0.03	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Paul Pierce	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	7	56%	0.02	2	-0.01	4	50%	-0.01
Glen Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	-0.00	3	67%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.07	0.00	-0.07	10	35%	0.02	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.07	0.00	-0.07	7	14%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie House	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	0.03	4	37%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.0	2.7	32.1	15.5	26.5	2.6	26.0	129.4
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +35.5%

MIA -4.8%

BOS +9.4%

BOS +8.5%

BOS +1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	BOS	NBA	MIA	BOS	NBA
this game	17.5	16.3	15.4	72.9	103.5	105.7
season	16.0	15.6		99.0	108.0
opponent	15.9	15.4		98.3	108.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	17.1	17.3	16.6	19.4	17.5
BOS	14.8	14.0	19.4	17.6	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Blake Ahearn	34	36	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	0.05	-3	-23	20	18.3	17.0	1.30	15.5	17.0	-1.51
Earl Barron	22	21	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.03	-3	-23	20	17.9	17.4	0.50	16.1	16.4	-0.26
Alexander Johnson	25	25	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.03	-3	-23	20	15.9	18.2	-2.30	16.7	16.2	0.48
Joel Anthony	51	53	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.06	-9	-17	8	18.2	16.5	1.69	15.3	18.1	-2.81
Stephane Lasme	35	37	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	0.29	-18	-8	-10	17.9	17.3	0.63	16.6	16.2	0.40
Mark Blount	37	34	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	0.23	-19	-7	-12	17.1	17.9	-0.72	17.6	15.5	2.13
Kasib Powell	69	70	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	0.18	-22	-4	-18	17.2	19.2	-2.03	16.9	13.6	3.33
Chris Quinn	70	68	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	0.24	-25	-1	-24	17.6	17.5	0.09	16.5	15.6	0.87
Ricky Davis	82	81	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	0.32	-28	2	-30	17.5	18.0	-0.48	16.1	21.7	-5.68

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Paul Pierce	42	45	0.42	0.08	0.35	-0.22	22	4	18	16.3	16.4	-0.11	17.6	17.5	0.08
Kendrick Perkins	42	43	0.42	0.08	0.34	-0.25	23	3	20	16.6	16.1	0.46	17.7	17.3	0.41
Ray Allen	44	44	0.41	0.09	0.32	-0.23	22	4	18	16.7	16.0	0.66	17.7	17.4	0.29
Rajon Rondo	37	40	0.40	0.10	0.31	-0.21	21	5	16	16.7	16.1	0.59	17.8	17.3	0.54
Kevin Garnett	37	39	0.37	0.13	0.24	-0.21	20	6	14	16.6	16.1	0.54	17.6	17.5	0.04
Leon Powe	48	48	0.18	0.32	-0.14	-0.09	9	17	-8	15.9	16.9	-1.07	17.5	17.6	-0.19
Eddie House	24	22	0.08	0.42	-0.34	-0.10	6	20	-14	16.1	16.4	-0.30	18.0	17.4	0.68
Sam Cassell	36	34	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.02	2	24	-22	16.0	16.6	-0.64	16.1	18.5	-2.37
James Posey	39	38	0.06	0.44	-0.38	-0.00	2	24	-22	16.1	16.6	-0.54	17.3	17.7	-0.36
Tony Allen	33	32	0.05	0.45	-0.41	-0.04	3	23	-20	16.5	16.2	0.28	18.3	17.1	1.29
P.J. Brown	21	20	0.02	0.48	-0.47	-0.04	2	24	-22	16.6	16.3	0.31	17.0	17.7	-0.64
Glen Davis	22	20	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.07	-2	28	-30	16.2	16.4	-0.22	17.7	17.5	0.27

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.64,0.69,0.68,0.73,0.78,0.81,0.84,0.81,0.83,0.85,0.85,0.84,0.79,0.83,0.86,0.89,0.91,0.94,0.93,0.9,0.95,0.94,0.93,0.93,0.96,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 86, WAS 113	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.65,0.71,0.73,0.76,0.79,0.79,0.82,0.87,0.85,0.88,0.85,0.8,0.81,0.82,0.86,0.91,0.92,0.93,0.94,0.94,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.9%
SEA 93, SAS 110	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.61,0.65,0.7,0.7,0.69,0.71,0.75,0.79,0.81,0.84,0.83,0.86,0.83,0.85,0.81,0.83,0.87,0.88,0.87,0.93,0.94,0.94,0.98,0.95,0.96,0.95,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.7%
MIA 93, PHX 111	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.6,0.64,0.67,0.68,0.73,0.82,0.81,0.84,0.85,0.85,0.9,0.88,0.82,0.84,0.88,0.9,0.92,0.91,0.91,0.95,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.6%