NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	93		Excitement	2.2 [1298]		MVP	Raja Bell (PHX): +13.0%
Phoenix Suns	111		Comeback	1.0 [1256]		LVP	Shaquille O'Neal (MIA): -5.4%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antoine Walker	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.11	0.00	0.04	16	67%	0.08	2	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Gary Payton	0.02	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	0.00	0.02	11	62%	0.03	2	-0.01	2	100%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wayne Simien	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.05	0.00	0.06	7	60%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Shandon Anderson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.16	0.00	-0.15	12	17%	-0.01	2	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Fitch	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.07	0.00	-0.05	8	28%	-0.01	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.00
Jason Kapono	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.03	0.00	0.06	14	53%	-0.01	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.00
James Posey	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.07	0.00	-0.03	7	14%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	-0.04	0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.09	0.00	-0.05	10	42%	-0.01	4	-0.03	4	100%	0.01
Shaquille O'Neal	-0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	0.00	-0.01	6	40%	-0.02	2	-0.03	8	50%	-0.02

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Raja Bell	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.19	0.00	0.05	15	75%	0.13	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
James Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.13	0.00	0.02	9	84%	0.12	1	-0.00	1	100%	0.00
Steve Nash	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.01	-0.03	6	79%	0.09	3	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Kurt Thomas	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.09	0.00	0.04	7	72%	0.05	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Shawn Marion	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	0.00	0.01	16	54%	0.05	0	0.00	3	67%	0.00
Boris Diaw	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.16	0.00	-0.16	12	41%	0.03	6	-0.02	10	40%	-0.01
Pat Burke	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	2	100%	0.02	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dijon Thompson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie House	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	12	42%	-0.00	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.6	2.8	28.4	17.7	28.1	2.7	31.2	136.4
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

PHX +47.0%

PHX +0.9%

MIA -3.2%

PHX +4.3%

PHX +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	PHX	NBA	MIA	PHX	NBA
this game	15.5	13.1	15.6	91.2	112.1	104.4
season	15.5	13.8		106.1	110.2
opponent	16.1	15.5		105.8	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.2	15.5	15.0	16.5	15.5
PHX	10.9	13.3	14.4	14.0	13.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alonzo Mourning	7	7	0.02	-0.52	0.55	-0.15	6	-24	30	14.3	15.6	-1.32	14.9	13.0	1.89
Wayne Simien	33	31	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	0.00	-2	-16	14	15.4	15.6	-0.19	13.7	12.8	0.89
Shandon Anderson	63	61	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.23	4	-22	26	15.3	15.8	-0.53	13.7	12.1	1.62
Gerald Fitch	52	51	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.19	-2	-16	14	15.1	16.0	-0.86	13.2	13.0	0.12
Udonis Haslem	64	62	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.02	-8	-10	2	14.7	16.8	-2.11	13.9	11.8	2.10
Antoine Walker	55	54	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.12	-5	-13	8	15.7	15.3	0.37	12.8	13.5	-0.71
Jason Kapono	64	64	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.03	-9	-9	0	16.7	13.6	3.09	13.5	12.4	1.04
James Posey	39	38	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	0.26	-22	4	-26	15.8	15.3	0.53	12.1	13.7	-1.62
Shaquille O'Neal	51	48	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	0.34	-27	9	-36	16.2	14.8	1.43	11.7	14.4	-2.66
Gary Payton	82	79	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	0.27	-25	7	-32	15.1	17.2	-2.15	12.8	14.2	-1.44

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Boris Diaw	80	84	0.47	0.03	0.45	-0.14	21	-3	24	13.0	13.4	-0.33	16.0	13.1	2.92
Kurt Thomas	44	46	0.45	0.05	0.41	-0.40	29	-11	40	13.0	13.2	-0.22	17.3	14.0	3.29
Shawn Marion	83	86	0.45	0.05	0.40	-0.20	22	-4	26	13.0	13.6	-0.55	15.3	16.9	-1.61
Steve Nash	72	75	0.43	0.07	0.36	-0.28	24	-6	30	13.0	13.4	-0.37	15.1	16.8	-1.76
Raja Bell	89	91	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.17	8	10	-2	12.9	15.1	-2.22	15.3	17.4	-2.07
James Jones	64	66	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.24	-4	22	-26	13.7	12.1	1.57	15.5	15.5	0.03
Eddie House	44	43	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.38	-9	27	-36	14.0	12.4	1.66	15.4	15.6	-0.13
Pat Burke	14	14	0.05	0.45	-0.41	0.05	0	18	-18	11.5	13.4	-1.86	12.9	15.9	-3.09
Dijon Thompson	5	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	19	-20	11.4	13.2	-1.79	13.6	15.6	-2.02

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.6,0.64,0.67,0.68,0.73,0.82,0.81,0.84,0.85,0.85,0.9,0.88,0.82,0.84,0.88,0.9,0.92,0.91,0.91,0.95,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 86, WAS 113	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.65,0.71,0.73,0.76,0.79,0.79,0.82,0.87,0.85,0.88,0.85,0.8,0.81,0.82,0.86,0.91,0.92,0.93,0.94,0.94,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	98.0%
SAC 89, HOU 105	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.57,0.64,0.66,0.69,0.74,0.74,0.8,0.81,0.81,0.83,0.87,0.85,0.82,0.83,0.9,0.89,0.92,0.93,0.95,0.93,0.97,0.99,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	98.0%
IND 89, NYK 132	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.71,0.73,0.73,0.79,0.77,0.82,0.86,0.85,0.88,0.89,0.89,0.85,0.88,0.91,0.91,0.92,0.96,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.7%