NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Seattle SuperSonics	93		Excitement	2.0 [1245]		MVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): +10.9%
San Antonio Spurs	110		Comeback	1.0 [1228]		LVP	Rashard Lewis (SEA): -6.6%

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gary Payton	0.07	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.02	0.00	-0.05	16	52%	0.07	1	-0.00	1	100%	0.00
Calvin Booth	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.06	0.00	0.03	8	67%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Shammond Williams	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.01	7	50%	0.00	0	0.00	4	50%	0.00
Brent Barry	0.00	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	10	62%	0.03	3	-0.03	1	0%	-0.01
Vladimir Radmanovic	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	5	40%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Olumide Oyedeji	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	5	42%	-0.01	1	-0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Earl Watson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	0.00	0.03	5	69%	0.01	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Predrag Drobnjak	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.06	0.00	-0.04	6	43%	-0.00	2	-0.01	2	100%	0.00
Desmond Mason	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	0.00	0.01	7	43%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Art Long	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	0.00	5	40%	-0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Rashard Lewis	-0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	0.00	-0.01	10	40%	-0.02	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.20	0.00	0.09	17	83%	0.14	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Steven Smith	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.02	0.01	-0.05	10	65%	0.09	3	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
David Robinson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.07	0.00	0.03	6	86%	0.05	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.00
Terry Porter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.07	0.00	0.03	5	90%	0.04	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.01	4	79%	0.03	2	-0.02	6	83%	0.01
Cherokee Parks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	5	40%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Amal McCaskill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	62%	0.00	0	0.00	4	25%	0.00
Danny Ferry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	150%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charles Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.08	0.00	-0.08	5	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.09	0.00	-0.09	10	46%	0.00	3	-0.00	8	75%	0.01
Antonio Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	8	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.09	0.00	-0.06	6	33%	0.01	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	2.5	28.4	16.4	21.4	2.6	26.2	121.8
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +23.3%

SAS +9.2%

SAS +10.2%

SAS +4.8%

SAS +2.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SEA	SAS	NBA	SEA	SAS	NBA
this game	17.1	14.7	15.6	102.2	122.2	102.3
season	16.0	15.8		106.3	104.3
opponent	15.7	15.8		98.0	103.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SEA	15.2	16.9	18.8	18.0	17.1
SAS	13.6	15.0	16.2	14.1	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Olumide Oyedeji	30	31	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.19	6	-23	29	17.5	17.0	0.55	14.5	14.8	-0.30
Vladimir Radmanovic	21	21	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	-0.15	4	-21	25	15.8	17.5	-1.78	14.9	14.6	0.23
Shammond Williams	36	35	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.15	2	-19	21	17.9	16.7	1.21	14.0	15.1	-1.16
Art Long	28	29	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.20	3	-20	23	17.6	16.9	0.69	13.8	15.1	-1.31
Earl Watson	30	30	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.18	1	-18	19	15.8	17.8	-1.94	14.1	15.0	-0.92
Predrag Drobnjak	38	35	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	0.18	-12	-5	-7	18.8	15.9	2.89	14.1	15.0	-0.88
Brent Barry	50	49	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	0.08	-13	-4	-9	16.7	17.7	-1.00	15.8	13.3	2.54
Calvin Booth	38	38	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	0.14	-16	-1	-15	17.1	17.2	-0.14	15.3	14.2	1.06
Rashard Lewis	55	54	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	0.01	-12	-5	-7	16.3	18.4	-2.13	15.6	13.2	2.38
Desmond Mason	56	55	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	0.24	-24	7	-31	16.9	17.5	-0.53	13.6	16.4	-2.82
Gary Payton	73	73	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	0.23	-24	7	-31	17.6	15.1	2.52	14.9	13.6	1.34

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Steven Smith	57	59	0.47	0.03	0.44	-0.29	26	-9	35	14.4	15.2	-0.80	16.8	17.7	-0.95
Tim Duncan	63	66	0.46	0.04	0.42	-0.36	28	-11	39	14.2	15.7	-1.52	17.7	15.6	2.17
Bruce Bowen	54	55	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.01	12	5	7	15.3	13.7	1.59	16.8	17.6	-0.84
Tony Parker	53	53	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.21	4	13	-9	14.5	15.0	-0.50	16.4	18.2	-1.85
David Robinson	41	41	0.30	0.20	0.10	-0.08	13	4	9	15.0	14.4	0.59	17.0	17.2	-0.24
Malik Rose	35	36	0.20	0.30	-0.10	-0.21	14	3	11	14.7	14.7	0.01	18.1	16.5	1.62
Terry Porter	37	38	0.17	0.33	-0.15	-0.21	13	4	9	15.0	14.5	0.50	18.2	16.4	1.85
Antonio Daniels	34	35	0.16	0.34	-0.18	-0.13	10	7	3	15.7	14.0	1.70	18.2	16.4	1.78
Cherokee Parks	21	20	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.33	-10	27	-37	15.3	14.5	0.79	15.4	17.6	-2.16
Charles Smith	23	22	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.15	-5	22	-27	14.1	14.9	-0.74	18.0	16.9	1.08
Amal McCaskill	20	19	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.32	-11	28	-39	14.8	14.6	0.16	15.3	17.6	-2.36
Danny Ferry	12	11	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.26	-9	26	-35	11.2	15.2	-3.96	15.5	17.4	-1.91

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.61,0.65,0.7,0.7,0.69,0.71,0.75,0.79,0.81,0.84,0.83,0.86,0.83,0.85,0.81,0.83,0.87,0.88,0.87,0.93,0.94,0.94,0.98,0.95,0.96,0.95,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 62, BOS 88	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.64,0.69,0.68,0.73,0.78,0.81,0.84,0.81,0.83,0.85,0.85,0.84,0.79,0.83,0.86,0.89,0.91,0.94,0.93,0.9,0.95,0.94,0.93,0.93,0.96,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.7%
TOR 86, WAS 113	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.65,0.71,0.73,0.76,0.79,0.79,0.82,0.87,0.85,0.88,0.85,0.8,0.81,0.82,0.86,0.91,0.92,0.93,0.94,0.94,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.6%
SAS 86, PHX 105	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.6,0.66,0.68,0.71,0.75,0.71,0.81,0.83,0.83,0.84,0.87,0.85,0.82,0.83,0.85,0.8,0.81,0.85,0.91,0.93,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.5%