NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	82		Excitement	4.8 [840]		MVP	Chris Bosh (TOR): +9.8%
Toronto Raptors	89		Comeback	1.4 [711]		LVP	Rodney Stuckey (DET): -8.8%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Arron Afflalo	0.03	0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.00	0.02	3	71%	0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Rasheed Wallace	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.06	-0.01	0.03	11	62%	0.05	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Antonio McDyess	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	6	67%	0.07	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Tayshaun Prince	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	11	42%	-0.01	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Jarvis Hayes	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jason Maxiell	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	1	0%	-0.03	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Theo Ratliff	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Amir Johnson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.01	4	25%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	-0.07	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07	0.00	-0.05	0.02	19	57%	0.06	5	-0.13	4	100%	0.02
Lindsey Hunter	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Stuckey	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	0.01	-0.03	0.06	14	50%	-0.06	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.01

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Bosh	0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.09,0.1	0.10	0.03	0.06	-0.01	19	52%	0.13	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Jose Calderon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.09	0.01	0.01	6	81%	0.10	1	-0.01	4	100%	0.01
Jamario Moon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.02	0.00	4	100%	0.10	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
T.J. Ford	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.02	0.01	9	65%	0.07	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Rasho Nesterovic	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.03	0.01	15	48%	0.08	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.00
Carlos Delfino	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.01	8	62%	0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Andrea Bargnani	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	4	37%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kapono	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Parker	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	0.01	0.00	6	37%	-0.01	3	-0.06	4	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.0	1.8	25.1	16.4	24.4	1.0	34.0	125.7
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +40.9%

TOR +5.4%

DET -5.6%

TOR +7.6%

TOR +1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	TOR	NBA	DET	TOR	NBA
this game	17.6	15.7	15.4	94.3	103.5	105.7
season	16.8	15.6		108.8	108.5
opponent	15.7	15.8		105.6	101.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	19.2	18.8	19.1	13.5	17.6
TOR	15.0	15.5	14.2	17.8	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Amir Johnson	36	36	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.27	7	-14	21	15.2	19.3	-4.05	17.0	14.8	2.21
Theo Ratliff	10	9	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.01	-3	-4	1	18.1	17.5	0.57	13.8	15.9	-2.13
Arron Afflalo	22	22	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	0.02	-4	-3	-1	20.0	16.8	3.28	14.8	16.0	-1.17
Tayshaun Prince	66	65	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.30	6	-13	19	17.3	18.5	-1.16	15.8	15.4	0.40
Rasheed Wallace	63	63	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.22	3	-10	13	17.5	17.9	-0.44	16.3	14.1	2.18
Lindsey Hunter	21	22	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.04	-4	-3	-1	19.5	17.0	2.48	15.3	15.8	-0.49
Chauncey Billups	73	71	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.31	4	-11	15	17.2	19.5	-2.27	15.8	15.2	0.59
Antonio McDyess	41	41	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.02	-11	4	-15	19.6	15.8	3.71	15.0	16.3	-1.36
Jason Maxiell	24	23	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.07	-10	3	-13	17.9	17.5	0.44	14.1	16.3	-2.18
Jarvis Hayes	21	21	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.01	-13	6	-19	18.5	17.3	1.16	15.4	15.8	-0.40
Rodney Stuckey	58	57	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.26	-10	3	-13	16.4	19.9	-3.45	16.0	15.0	1.04

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rasho Nesterovic	82	83	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.21	11	-4	15	15.7	14.7	0.98	17.9	11.5	6.39
Jose Calderon	48	50	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.20	10	-3	13	16.2	15.1	1.13	16.1	19.6	-3.57
T.J. Ford	54	54	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.30	1	6	-5	15.5	16.1	-0.60	17.2	18.2	-0.94
Chris Bosh	66	67	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.31	-2	9	-11	15.5	16.3	-0.87	17.2	18.9	-1.69
Andrea Bargnani	24	24	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.08	5	2	3	16.1	15.5	0.55	17.7	17.6	0.10
Carlos Delfino	37	37	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.04	6	1	5	16.3	15.2	1.03	17.4	17.7	-0.29
Anthony Parker	66	66	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.28	-3	10	-13	15.7	15.5	0.18	17.5	18.0	-0.53
Jamario Moon	38	38	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.12	1	6	-5	15.0	16.2	-1.28	19.8	15.9	3.84
Jason Kapono	15	16	0.13	0.37	-0.25	-0.05	6	1	5	15.1	15.8	-0.75	19.3	17.2	2.10

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.55,0.53,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.48,0.49,0.42,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.69,0.69,0.74,0.75,0.87,0.93,0.98,0.95,0.97,0.92,0.89,0.91,0.99,0.96,0.97,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 111, NJN 113	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.38,0.42,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.58,0.41,0.5,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.61,0.58,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.66,0.7,0.68,0.78,0.96,0.98,0.95,0.88,0.83,0.85,0.93,0.99,1,1,1,1	94.9%
CLE 89, MIL 107	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.42,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.42,0.47,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.47,0.53,0.56,0.61,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.56,0.51,0.5,0.62,0.63,0.51,0.46,0.58,0.56,0.55,0.62,0.64,0.67,0.75,0.9,0.9,0.92,0.94,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.6%
CHI 81, DEN 99	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.66,0.64,0.61,0.56,0.5,0.49,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.62,0.52,0.52,0.7,0.7,0.73,0.85,0.86,0.91,0.83,0.85,0.92,0.93,0.98,1,1,1,1,1	94.5%