NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	109		Excitement	7.5 [301]		MVP	Allen Iverson (DEN): +50.1%
Toronto Raptors	100		Comeback	4.2 [176]		LVP	Chris Bosh (TOR): -16.9%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Allen Iverson	0.50	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.22,0.22,0.31,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.36,0.5,0.5	0.24	0.29	0.03	16	84%	0.59	4	-0.09	11	82%	0.04
Carmelo Anthony	0.24	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.08,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.09,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.23,0.24	0.06	0.19	0.00	28	54%	0.36	3	-0.12	5	80%	0.07
Anthony Carter	0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.01	0.04	-0.01	5	50%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eduardo Najera	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.03	-0.01	3	50%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Linas Kleiza	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.01	0.05	-0.00	4	37%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenyon Martin	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.01	0.01	8	56%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Marcus Camby	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.04	0.00	4	42%	0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
J.R. Smith	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.05	-0.05	0.01	12	54%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Chucky Atkins	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jose Calderon	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.12	0.07	-0.00	11	77%	0.21	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
T.J. Ford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.06	0.06	-0.02	8	65%	0.14	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Anthony Parker	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.16,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.04	0.09	0.00	10	64%	0.19	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Rasho Nesterovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.04	0.00	7	67%	0.11	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.03
Andrea Bargnani	0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.07	-0.02	0.02	14	57%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Delfino	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kapono	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jamario Moon	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.05	-0.02	14	50%	0.01	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.03
Chris Bosh	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.08	-0.10	-0.01	16	45%	0.08	4	-0.25	6	83%	0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	3.4	26.0	20.8	23.1	3.4	36.4	136.4
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +26.9%

DEN +13.7%

TOR -1.9%

DEN +20.4%

TOR -9.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	TOR	NBA	DEN	TOR	NBA
this game	14.7	17.8	15.4	123.9	112.4	105.7
season	13.3	15.6		108.2	108.5
opponent	15.7	15.2		105.6	105.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	15.0	15.0	13.9	15.0	14.7
TOR	16.3	18.5	18.9	17.7	17.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marcus Camby	74	75	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.28	10	-1	11	14.3	16.7	-2.38	17.3	20.4	-3.02
Allen Iverson	80	81	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.28	6	3	3	14.5	17.0	-2.51	17.3	23.1	-5.84
J.R. Smith	43	46	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.07	12	-3	15	14.2	15.2	-1.08	17.5	18.1	-0.59
Linas Kleiza	25	26	0.29	0.21	0.07	-0.07	12	-3	15	14.0	15.0	-1.06	17.3	18.0	-0.76
Eduardo Najera	32	33	0.26	0.24	0.03	-0.09	12	-3	15	14.4	14.9	-0.49	19.7	16.7	3.00
Carmelo Anthony	65	65	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.27	-1	10	-11	15.1	13.7	1.38	17.5	18.5	-1.00
Anthony Carter	41	40	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.17	-1	10	-11	15.3	14.2	1.03	18.3	17.4	0.85
Kenyon Martin	68	68	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.31	-6	15	-21	15.2	13.0	2.16	17.9	17.6	0.31
Chucky Atkins	12	11	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	-0.05	1	8	-7	16.3	14.5	1.87	21.2	17.3	3.85

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andrea Bargnani	51	50	0.06	-0.56	0.61	-0.03	3	-12	15	17.1	18.7	-1.57	14.3	15.3	-1.01
Carlos Delfino	13	13	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	0.07	-6	-3	-3	16.8	18.0	-1.13	15.4	14.6	0.78
Anthony Parker	70	70	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.24	4	-13	17	16.9	21.3	-4.39	14.5	15.5	-0.99
Jose Calderon	59	59	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.33	5	-14	19	16.7	19.9	-3.15	15.0	14.1	0.86
T.J. Ford	30	29	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.09	-14	5	-19	19.9	16.7	3.15	14.1	15.0	-0.86
Chris Bosh	77	77	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.32	0	-9	9	17.9	17.2	0.74	15.2	11.3	3.94
Jamario Moon	76	75	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.31	-3	-6	3	18.0	16.8	1.13	14.6	15.4	-0.78
Jason Kapono	23	24	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	0.10	-19	10	-29	18.7	17.5	1.14	15.0	14.6	0.45
Rasho Nesterovic	46	43	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.21	-15	6	-21	19.4	16.1	3.28	14.5	14.9	-0.44

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.55,0.57,0.54,0.59,0.57,0.63,0.7,0.76,0.78,0.74,0.72,0.75,0.69,0.6,0.67,0.61,0.66,0.66,0.76,0.77,0.75,0.73,0.71,0.69,0.7,0.76,0.76,0.71,0.68,0.62,0.69,0.67,0.56,0.58,0.52,0.38,0.43,0.37,0.53,0.53,0.67,0.39,0.54,0.43,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 88, MIA 84	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.61,0.64,0.63,0.66,0.61,0.62,0.63,0.68,0.68,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.66,0.66,0.74,0.67,0.7,0.63,0.66,0.69,0.69,0.7,0.67,0.65,0.71,0.75,0.8,0.7,0.6,0.66,0.62,0.57,0.48,0.63,0.64,0.59,0.67,0.61,0.55,0.34,0.08,0	91.4%
DAL 103, CLE 99	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.7,0.69,0.73,0.73,0.7,0.66,0.68,0.68,0.64,0.67,0.63,0.65,0.61,0.59,0.64,0.67,0.64,0.58,0.63,0.72,0.64,0.7,0.73,0.77,0.74,0.81,0.9,0.81,0.68,0.54,0.57,0.38,0.43,0.33,0.41,0.46,0.46,0.39,0.45,0.41,0.27,0	90.8%
DAL 91, PHX 83	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.53,0.6,0.63,0.66,0.7,0.69,0.7,0.68,0.64,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.76,0.75,0.66,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.59,0.63,0.62,0.57,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.55,0.59,0.65,0.63,0.63,0.56,0.58,0.57,0.52,0.33,0.51,0.41,0.54,0.48,0.47,0.36,0.43,0.08,0	90.8%