NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Cleveland Cavaliers	98		Excitement	4.7 [854]		MVP	Mo Williams (MIL): +25.0%
Milwaukee Bucks	108		Comeback	1.7 [376]		LVP	Anderson Varejao (CLE): -14.7%

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wally Szczerbiak	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.02	-0.02	11	61%	0.09	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	12	65%	0.10	4	-0.09	7	86%	0.02
Lance Allred	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Damon Jones	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0	0.01	0.01	0.01	9	48%	0.02	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Delonte West	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	7	57%	0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Sasha Pavlovic	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	7	36%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Smith	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	5	36%	-0.04	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Devin Brown	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	5	36%	-0.02	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.00
LeBron James	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07	-0.04	-0.01	0.01	25	48%	0.01	4	-0.07	10	80%	-0.00
Anderson Varejao	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.12	-0.03	0.00	10	10%	-0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mo Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.22,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.24,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.25	0.25	0.06	0.06	11	85%	0.25	1	-0.00	12	83%	0.02
Charlie Bell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.11	0.00	-0.00	7	86%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Desmond Mason	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.02	0.02	12	65%	0.08	2	-0.02	2	50%	0.00
Michael Ruffin	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dan Gadzuric	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Redd	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	14	58%	0.11	4	-0.11	8	75%	0.00
Yi Jianlian	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.05	0.01	-0.04	11	36%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Villanueva	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	7	36%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Bogut	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.08	-0.01	-0.03	19	40%	-0.02	2	-0.03	2	0%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.0	1.5	29.4	15.4	25.5	2.6	43.2	139.6
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +54.7%

CLE -4.3%

CLE -9.2%

MIL +11.3%

CLE -2.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CLE	MIL	NBA	CLE	MIL	NBA
this game	15.3	14.5	15.4	101.0	112.5	105.7
season	16.4	15.8		104.0	103.4
opponent	15.2	15.2		110.7	104.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CLE	16.6	14.6	15.9	14.2	15.3
MIL	13.4	18.1	14.7	12.5	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lance Allred	1	0	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-10	10	14.0	15.3	-1.31	0.0	14.5	-14.54
Wally Szczerbiak	52	52	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	-0.19	5	-15	20	14.1	16.7	-2.63	15.1	13.9	1.25
Delonte West	56	58	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.04	-5	-5	0	15.5	15.0	0.56	13.2	16.5	-3.28
Anderson Varejao	55	55	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.06	-5	-5	0	16.6	13.6	3.05	14.2	15.0	-0.80
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	55	53	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.04	-7	-3	-4	16.1	14.2	1.95	16.1	12.6	3.51
Devin Brown	38	36	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.08	-6	-4	-2	14.4	15.8	-1.40	16.3	13.5	2.82
Joe Smith	60	61	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.33	1	-11	12	14.8	16.1	-1.31	14.6	14.4	0.27
Damon Jones	57	55	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.24	-3	-7	4	14.1	17.0	-2.89	14.7	14.3	0.35
Sasha Pavlovic	31	31	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	0.10	-18	8	-26	16.9	14.5	2.36	14.2	14.7	-0.56
LeBron James	80	79	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.14	-12	2	-14	15.5	14.5	0.93	13.5	19.5	-6.06

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Desmond Mason	82	84	0.61	-0.11	0.73	-0.00	21	-11	32	14.1	16.9	-2.71	15.7	12.8	2.83
Mo Williams	74	76	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.17	15	-5	20	13.8	17.1	-3.31	15.4	14.8	0.62
Michael Redd	90	90	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.18	13	-3	16	14.4	16.2	-1.73	15.2	16.4	-1.22
Andrew Bogut	83	83	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.09	15	-5	20	14.2	16.8	-2.67	15.4	14.4	1.02
Yi Jianlian	59	60	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.26	3	7	-4	14.6	14.4	0.27	14.6	16.5	-1.88
Michael Ruffin	6	6	0.02	0.48	-0.45	0.02	0	10	-10	13.7	14.6	-0.93	17.0	15.2	1.81
Charlie Villanueva	44	43	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.08	-2	12	-14	15.2	14.0	1.27	15.4	15.2	0.13
Dan Gadzuric	7	8	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	0.09	-5	15	-20	19.6	14.1	5.43	12.5	15.6	-3.05
Charlie Bell	35	35	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	0.14	-10	20	-30	16.3	13.5	2.79	15.5	15.2	0.25

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.59,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.68,0.69,0.71,0.75,0.78,0.78,0.83,0.79,0.73,0.7,0.76,0.71,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.56,0.5,0.49,0.4,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.63,0.75,0.73,0.77,0.82,0.9,0.89,0.96,0.95,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.97,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 84, HOU 102	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.66,0.68,0.7,0.69,0.75,0.75,0.76,0.78,0.75,0.71,0.65,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.51,0.48,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.68,0.72,0.79,0.8,0.89,0.95,0.92,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.7%
NYK 88, MEM 96	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.62,0.64,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.65,0.7,0.71,0.7,0.7,0.68,0.72,0.73,0.71,0.74,0.63,0.61,0.66,0.64,0.7,0.61,0.51,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.62,0.68,0.75,0.74,0.86,0.91,0.94,0.93,0.88,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.99,1,1,1	94.7%
LAC 108, OKC 120	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.59,0.63,0.65,0.64,0.63,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.7,0.7,0.72,0.71,0.69,0.67,0.66,0.66,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.56,0.51,0.59,0.57,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.62,0.81,0.8,0.81,0.79,0.87,0.9,0.94,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.4%