NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	82		Excitement	5.0 [791]		MVP	Gerald Wallace (CHA): +18.4%
Charlotte Bobcats	94		Comeback	2.1 [636]		LVP	Matt Carroll (CHA): -10.9%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Williams	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	0.00	0.01	18	53%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Quinn	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	-0.01	-0.03	10	64%	0.11	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Joel Anthony	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	3	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kasib Powell	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Blake Ahearn	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ricky Davis	-0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	12	54%	0.08	3	-0.09	4	100%	0.03
Stephane Lasme	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	7	39%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.00
Mark Blount	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	9	33%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Daequan Cook	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.04	-0.02	0.03	9	45%	-0.04	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Earl Barron	-0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.02	-0.00	7	47%	0.01	5	-0.12	3	67%	-0.01

Charlotte Bobcats
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gerald Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.07	0.07	-0.04	17	58%	0.21	2	-0.02	11	73%	-0.01
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.10	0.08	0.02	9	89%	0.22	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jason Richardson	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.12	0.04	0.02	17	60%	0.16	1	-0.03	6	100%	0.03
Ryan Hollins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.02	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Earl Boykins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.01	5	60%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jermareo Davidson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Emeka Okafor	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.02	-0.00	6	46%	0.03	2	-0.04	1	0%	-0.01
Jared Dudley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.07	-0.00	-0.06	6	14%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Raymond Felton	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.10	-0.01	-0.01	9	40%	-0.04	4	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Matt Carroll	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.02	-0.00	8	19%	-0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.1	1.7	28.8	15.6	26.5	2.6	29.2	129.4
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHA +24.6%

CHA +10.3%

CHA +9.2%

CHA +6.6%

MIA -0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	CHA	NBA	MIA	CHA	NBA
this game	16.9	15.3	15.4	92.1	104.4	105.7
season	16.0	15.8		99.0	103.1
opponent	15.1	15.4		107.8	108.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	18.9	16.8	17.0	15.0	16.9
CHA	15.4	15.3	15.7	15.0	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kasib Powell	5	6	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.09	3	-15	18	14.8	17.0	-2.18	17.7	15.2	2.50
Mark Blount	43	44	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.06	-2	-10	8	16.9	16.8	0.01	16.1	14.6	1.53
Stephane Lasme	48	47	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.07	-3	-9	6	15.7	18.2	-2.58	16.3	14.2	2.11
Blake Ahearn	13	13	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.02	-5	-7	2	17.2	16.8	0.35	15.6	15.3	0.33
Earl Barron	35	36	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.06	-7	-5	-2	18.0	16.1	1.89	14.4	15.9	-1.48
Daequan Cook	50	54	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.12	-5	-7	2	17.7	15.8	1.84	15.3	15.3	0.00
Chris Quinn	52	53	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.11	-6	-6	0	16.1	17.9	-1.73	15.3	15.3	0.02
Joel Anthony	44	44	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.08	-8	-4	-4	16.7	17.0	-0.21	14.8	15.8	-1.05
Jason Williams	79	78	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.09	-10	-2	-8	16.8	17.1	-0.28	15.3	15.6	-0.29
Ricky Davis	76	75	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.04	-17	5	-22	17.2	14.8	2.44	14.8	18.1	-3.28

Charlotte Bobcats
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gerald Wallace	66	65	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.08	15	-3	18	15.6	14.7	0.91	17.6	14.7	2.88
Jared Dudley	62	60	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.09	13	-1	14	14.6	17.0	-2.47	16.2	18.2	-2.01
Jason Richardson	63	63	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.02	15	-3	18	15.6	14.7	0.95	17.3	15.8	1.42
Matt Carroll	43	41	0.26	0.24	0.02	-0.00	9	3	6	15.5	15.2	0.25	16.2	17.4	-1.22
Raymond Felton	71	72	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.15	3	9	-6	15.4	15.2	0.22	17.1	15.6	1.49
Emeka Okafor	42	41	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.04	6	6	0	15.2	15.4	-0.22	18.4	15.5	2.89
Earl Boykins	39	37	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.14	1	11	-10	15.1	15.5	-0.41	15.9	17.5	-1.65
Ryan Hollins	13	12	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.06	3	9	-6	13.9	15.6	-1.65	15.6	17.1	-1.47
Nazr Mohammed	47	50	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.08	-2	14	-16	16.3	14.3	2.06	16.2	17.7	-1.49
Jermareo Davidson	4	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	15	-18	13.0	15.4	-2.44	14.0	17.0	-2.99

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.5,0.44,0.4,0.38,0.39,0.39,0.37,0.36,0.4,0.48,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.59,0.7,0.74,0.8,0.8,0.83,0.83,0.77,0.75,0.75,0.73,0.71,0.79,0.85,0.81,0.75,0.76,0.88,0.92,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 104, ORL 110	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.36,0.38,0.33,0.33,0.32,0.38,0.4,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.47,0.56,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.51,0.64,0.67,0.74,0.77,0.85,0.87,0.79,0.82,0.8,0.86,0.85,0.74,0.78,0.78,0.81,0.75,0.8,0.85,0.83,0.88,0.95,0.99,0.98,0.98,1,1	95.1%
BOS 95, TOR 105	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.39,0.4,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.54,0.7,0.73,0.81,0.84,0.87,0.81,0.76,0.66,0.65,0.62,0.73,0.78,0.75,0.87,0.84,0.75,0.76,0.81,0.86,0.93,0.98,1,1,1,1,1	94.3%
ATL 83, MIA 90	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.44,0.47,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.35,0.34,0.4,0.46,0.51,0.55,0.47,0.42,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.59,0.67,0.7,0.84,0.82,0.85,0.85,0.76,0.68,0.77,0.86,0.9,0.94,0.85,0.85,0.85,0.82,0.86,0.85,0.92,0.94,0.94,0.92,0.96,0.97,1,1	93.9%