NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	83		Excitement	5.1 [763]		MVP	Voshon Lenard (MIA): +8.4%
Miami Heat	90		Comeback	2.2 [541]		LVP	Christian Laettner (ATL): -25.2%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dikembe Mutombo	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	7	78%	0.10	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.03
Tyrone Corbin	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.04	-0.02	0.01	7	62%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Greg Anderson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	-0.03	1	25%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	0.01
Mookie Blaylock	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.04	0.01	13	65%	0.06	4	-0.09	5	60%	-0.01
Chucky Brown	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	4	22%	-0.04	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Alan Henderson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	0.02	8	41%	-0.05	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Eldridge Recasner	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.12	-0.04	-0.02	6	17%	-0.06	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Steven Smith	-0.20	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.11	-0.06	0.02	14	45%	-0.12	3	-0.07	10	90%	0.02
Christian Laettner	-0.25	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25	-0.14	-0.09	0.01	11	37%	-0.15	4	-0.10	5	80%	-0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Voshon Lenard	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.01	-0.03	10	62%	0.10	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.02	0.01	12	81%	0.18	4	-0.10	3	67%	-0.01
Dan Majerle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.02	0.02	10	65%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Mashburn	0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.03	-0.02	15	50%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Eric Murdock	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keith Askins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	0.01	12	41%	-0.05	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.00
Ike Austin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.10	-0.01	-0.02	14	34%	-0.07	1	-0.01	4	75%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.8	2.7	22.1	15.5	23.5	2.3	29.6	122.4
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +58.1%

ATL -14.2%

ATL -7.6%

MIA +15.2%

ATL -1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	MIA	NBA	ATL	MIA	NBA
this game	16.6	16.2	15.6	94.3	102.3	102.5
season	16.1	15.8		105.3	104.7
opponent	16.2	16.0		99.8	101.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	14.4	21.6	14.4	17.1	16.6
MIA	15.0	15.4	15.6	18.9	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chucky Brown	11	11	0.04	-0.54	0.57	-0.02	2	-9	11	20.2	16.0	4.14	16.3	16.2	0.12
Greg Anderson	17	16	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.06	0	-7	7	15.0	16.9	-1.93	16.3	16.1	0.17
Eldridge Recasner	35	35	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.14	-2	-5	3	16.1	16.9	-0.78	16.5	15.9	0.62
Mookie Blaylock	77	76	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.30	1	-8	9	16.7	15.3	1.47	16.4	14.9	1.45
Christian Laettner	56	57	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.22	-2	-5	3	16.8	16.2	0.58	16.8	15.0	1.76
Alan Henderson	37	37	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.16	-5	-2	-3	15.6	17.3	-1.71	15.9	16.4	-0.43
Dikembe Mutombo	66	66	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.15	-7	0	-7	17.3	14.2	3.11	15.7	17.5	-1.71
Tyrone Corbin	71	72	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.24	-6	-1	-5	15.6	20.4	-4.78	16.3	15.5	0.82
Steven Smith	70	70	-0.65	0.15	-0.81	-0.18	-16	9	-25	17.0	15.0	1.96	15.6	18.4	-2.79

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dan Majerle	57	57	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.17	12	-5	17	16.9	14.8	2.16	17.0	15.7	1.31
Alonzo Mourning	75	76	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.23	10	-3	13	16.1	16.4	-0.25	17.2	12.7	4.50
Jamal Mashburn	75	74	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.24	5	2	3	15.6	19.6	-4.04	15.7	20.9	-5.11
Ike Austin	67	65	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.36	1	6	-5	16.3	15.9	0.35	16.7	16.2	0.46
Tim Hardaway	74	75	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.24	4	3	1	15.7	18.8	-3.11	15.7	21.4	-5.66
Eric Murdock	21	22	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.07	4	3	1	17.9	15.6	2.22	19.2	15.7	3.56
Voshon Lenard	52	51	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.20	-4	11	-15	16.2	16.1	0.05	17.0	15.9	1.05
Keith Askins	19	20	0.05	0.45	-0.41	-0.04	3	4	-1	16.1	16.2	-0.08	14.6	17.1	-2.53

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.44,0.47,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.35,0.34,0.4,0.46,0.51,0.55,0.47,0.42,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.59,0.67,0.7,0.84,0.82,0.85,0.85,0.76,0.68,0.77,0.86,0.9,0.94,0.85,0.85,0.85,0.82,0.86,0.85,0.92,0.94,0.94,0.92,0.96,0.97,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 93, ATL 110	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.39,0.4,0.37,0.4,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.53,0.52,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.73,0.76,0.72,0.78,0.83,0.79,0.77,0.83,0.91,0.93,0.97,0.97,0.94,0.87,0.93,0.91,0.91,0.92,0.91,0.96,1,1,1,1,1	94.7%
MIL 85, MIN 96	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.46,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.37,0.42,0.38,0.48,0.4,0.47,0.53,0.44,0.4,0.48,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.7,0.75,0.79,0.79,0.8,0.76,0.86,0.89,0.91,0.92,0.92,0.92,0.93,0.87,0.9,0.86,0.89,0.88,0.92,0.94,0.93,0.98,1,1,1,1	94.4%
POR 104, ORL 110	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.36,0.38,0.33,0.33,0.32,0.38,0.4,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.47,0.56,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.51,0.64,0.67,0.74,0.77,0.85,0.87,0.79,0.82,0.8,0.86,0.85,0.74,0.78,0.78,0.81,0.75,0.8,0.85,0.83,0.88,0.95,0.99,0.98,0.98,1,1	94.0%