NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	103		Excitement	2.9 [1195]		MVP	Caron Butler (WAS): +17.7%
Miami Heat	86		Comeback	1.0 [1299]		LVP	Chris Quinn (MIA): -7.2%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Caron Butler	0.18	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.22	0.01	0.05	12	89%	0.20	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Andray Blatche	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.01	-0.01	4	70%	0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Antawn Jamison	0.07	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.14	0.00	0.08	14	67%	0.07	0	0.00	5	20%	-0.05
Roger Mason Jr.	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.00	0.01	-0.04	9	61%	0.09	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Oleksiy Pecherov	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.01	5	55%	0.00	1	0.00	1	100%	0.00
DeShawn Stevenson	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	-0.00	-0.03	9	39%	0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Daniels	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.05	-0.00	0.05	5	64%	0.02	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.00
Brendan Haywood	-0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.01	8	47%	0.01	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01
Dominic McGuire	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.09	0.00	-0.06	3	25%	-0.01	3	-0.02	2	0%	0.00
Darius Songaila	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	0.01	8	37%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ricky Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.00	8	62%	0.05	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.06	-0.01	0.03	4	80%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Stephane Lasme	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	0	100%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Blake Ahearn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	4	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Bobby Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.09	0.00	0.10	9	65%	-0.01	0	0.00	5	40%	-0.01
Mark Blount	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.02	7	67%	0.05	3	-0.07	4	75%	0.01
Daequan Cook	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	8	50%	0.00	2	-0.02	2	50%	0.00
Earl Barron	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	9	56%	0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jason Williams	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	10	41%	-0.05	2	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Chris Quinn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.01	-0.02	8	33%	-0.02	2	-0.05	2	50%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.0	2.8	28.2	16.0	25.2	2.4	28.6	126.2
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +31.3%

WAS +2.2%

WAS +8.1%

WAS +5.4%

WAS +3.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	MIA	NBA	WAS	MIA	NBA
this game	16.2	17.1	15.4	118.4	100.0	105.7
season	16.1	16.0		106.8	99.0
opponent	15.4	15.5		108.3	107.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	16.4	13.5	15.1	20.6	16.2
MIA	17.1	15.8	17.6	18.2	17.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeShawn Stevenson	60	60	0.46	0.04	0.42	-0.19	22	-5	27	15.0	18.8	-3.74	17.1	17.2	-0.07
Antonio Daniels	55	55	0.38	0.12	0.27	-0.14	18	-1	19	15.7	17.1	-1.47	17.1	17.1	0.01
Antawn Jamison	56	55	0.36	0.14	0.22	-0.23	20	-3	23	15.7	17.1	-1.45	16.8	17.7	-0.90
Caron Butler	60	58	0.35	0.15	0.20	-0.21	19	-2	21	16.4	15.7	0.71	17.5	16.4	1.11
Brendan Haywood	34	34	0.28	0.22	0.07	-0.07	12	5	7	15.0	16.9	-1.91	16.6	17.4	-0.76
Andray Blatche	41	40	0.20	0.30	-0.09	-0.09	10	7	3	16.0	16.4	-0.42	17.2	17.0	0.22
Darius Songaila	38	38	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.16	0	17	-17	17.0	15.6	1.38	16.9	17.2	-0.28
Roger Mason Jr.	43	42	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.18	-1	18	-19	17.2	15.2	2.05	16.8	17.4	-0.53
Dominic McGuire	32	33	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.23	-3	20	-23	16.9	15.8	1.12	17.5	16.8	0.72
Oleksiy Pecherov	16	15	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.36	-12	29	-41	20.4	15.3	5.12	17.9	16.9	0.92

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Blake Ahearn	11	12	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.18	6	-23	29	16.8	17.1	-0.33	21.7	15.3	6.35
Stephane Lasme	18	19	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.24	8	-25	33	18.2	16.8	1.41	20.6	15.0	5.68
Joel Anthony	43	46	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.14	-2	-15	13	17.6	16.6	0.95	17.6	14.6	2.95
Bobby Jones	48	48	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.21	0	-17	17	17.0	17.2	-0.24	17.1	15.1	1.93
Chris Quinn	48	48	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.12	-13	-4	-9	17.2	17.0	0.19	14.7	18.1	-3.36
Earl Barron	49	47	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.09	-12	-5	-7	15.8	18.8	-2.99	14.5	18.2	-3.71
Daequan Cook	57	58	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.17	-5	-12	7	17.0	17.3	-0.31	16.8	15.0	1.84
Mark Blount	40	42	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	0.25	-20	3	-23	17.8	16.5	1.25	16.1	16.3	-0.19
Jason Williams	52	51	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	0.25	-23	6	-29	17.3	16.8	0.51	15.3	17.4	-2.08
Ricky Davis	64	64	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	0.22	-24	7	-31	17.0	17.3	-0.29	14.8	20.1	-5.35

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.46,0.39,0.41,0.41,0.37,0.37,0.38,0.42,0.35,0.32,0.27,0.25,0.29,0.24,0.22,0.15,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.25,0.16,0.24,0.12,0.11,0.06,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 94, DAL 75	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.5,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.34,0.33,0.34,0.34,0.3,0.31,0.31,0.28,0.24,0.16,0.2,0.18,0.17,0.22,0.14,0.19,0.18,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.7%
SAS 120, SEA 79	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.4,0.39,0.43,0.35,0.42,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.3,0.26,0.29,0.27,0.2,0.17,0.14,0.15,0.14,0.19,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.7%
GSW 122, MEM 107	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.4,0.43,0.44,0.44,0.35,0.36,0.4,0.37,0.42,0.36,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.27,0.29,0.24,0.22,0.25,0.31,0.24,0.25,0.3,0.16,0.14,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.5%